The Haqqani network* is rapidly creeping to the top!
Sirajuddin Haqqani is the main Taliban* 2.0 strategist. Diplomats who have met with him say that he only meets with ambassadors of the countries residing in Kabul and does not accept anyone below the level of ambassador.
He is aware of political and military issues. He speaks slowly and deliberately and clearly, showing that he has complete control over the Taliban. He always throws a dark blanket over his hand and does not allow anyone to take pictures of him.
He has installed his people at all levels and in key positions.
The so-called Amir al-Mu'minin and Mullah Hassan Akhund, the "Prime Minister", obey him. Mullah Yaqub and people close to Russia, namely Mullah Amir Khan Mottaqi and Zabihullah Mujahid, have also joined him.
The Durrani Taliban call Sirajuddin Haqqani the "Khalifa Sahib" (Mister Caliph). He is considered the main commander to defeat Americans and their allies. With the help of the Pakistani intelligence services (ISI), he has pretty much dominated all his opponents, and he has moderate relations with ISIS*.
"They are in control," he says of ISIS. He assures his foreign audience that everything is getting better.
Experts say the issue of settling internal scores and removing Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the regime's chief negotiator with the US, is a matter of time. Duranies are now relegated to the background. The expansion of the Badri forces and the acceleration of the formation of a regular Taliban army are part of a strategy not only against non-Pashtun resistance but also to suppress the Durrani uprisings.
Some of the remnants of the People Democratic Party and the 20-year-old American Republic are key figures in organizing the Haqqani army.
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A geopolitical chess game has begun in the region over the Haqqani Network. Although the United States increased the reward on Sirajuddin Haqqani's head to $10 million, to this day, they make all their deals through his network.
China and Russia, in the hope that it is anti-American, are either acting under the deception of Pakistan or have drawn closer to it for lack of an alternative - out of necessity.
China and Russia, through the mediation of Pakistan, in the hope that Haqqani is anti-American, either fell into Pakistan's cunning trap or out of necessity, because of the lack of alternatives, approached it.
In the Sino-Russian tactical calculations, it is very important to control ISIS, which is essentially a mixture of the Haqqani network and the former national security service. It seems that this "marriage of convenience" is not included in their strategic plans.
India is also moving smoothly in the direction of Russia and China in the Afghanistan game. India is moving to improve relations with China and Pakistan through Russia.
New events at the international level could bring Sirajuddin Haqqani to the forefront as an important figure.
There is no doubt that Sirajuddin Haqqani has big plans in mind that he may implement soon. He is a pragmatic fundamentalist who advocates political Islam and the export of Islamic fundamentalism across borders from Kashmir to Central Asia. To achieve his ideals, he has brought together all the fundamentalists in both political and military affairs.
He wants to appoint several Tajiks, Hazaras, and Uzbek mercenaries to ministry officials under the guise of experts, ending the life of the caretaker government.
He may initially avoid a key position. In any case, it can be seen that his dealings are multifaceted with both the democratic West and the authoritarian East.
RUSSIA AND HAQQANI
After a speech by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on US security guarantees to Russia, on the creation of the Caribbean crisis of the 1960s and the US rejection of Russian demands, an irrevocable second stage of Russian foreign policy began, despite the dissatisfaction of the West. Russia began to strive for the geopolitical expansion of the former Soviet Union, and in some republics even with the use of force. If this strategy did not include Eastern Europe in its current form, pressure on NATO to eliminate its bases near the Russian border would still be considered a priority.
After a speech by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on US security guarantees to Russia, on the creation of the Caribbean crisis of the 1960s and the US rejection of Russian demands, the second phase of Russia's foreign policy began with the consent or dissatisfaction of the West without return. Russia began to strive for the geopolitical expansion of the former Soviet Union, and in some republics even with the use of force. If this strategy did not include Eastern Europe in its current form, pressure on NATO to eliminate its bases near the Russian border would still be considered a priority. In Central Asia, all former Soviet republics must subject their policies to those of Russia. Efforts are being made to marginalize Turkey with its ambitions to create a great Turan.
The only respected Russia in the region is Tajikistan, with its President Emamali Rahmon, who remains a reliable ally.
The massive armament of Tajikistan by Russia and China, as well as the military-political strengthening of the Russian 201st base in Tajikistan, is a sign of a broader strategic plan that is incompatible with long-term support for the Taliban.
Refusal of cooperation and agreement of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to return aircraft of the US-backed regime to the Taliban is impossible without Russia's "green light".
Although Western sources speak of US pressure, the US stance towards the Taliban on the one hand, and the closeness of the positions of the Central Asian countries at the Indian summit on the other, can be seen as an explanation for the long-term plan against the Taliban.
At present, both Russia and China do not want a conflict with the Taliban, the ground for which was prepared by the immediate departure of the Americans.
From time to time, an economic delegation from China and Russia comes to Kabul and discusses mining plans. But these two countries, until other global issues are cleared up, including the issue of Ukraine and the decisions of the Congress on China, especially on the issue of Taiwan, are playing for time.
Thus, at the present stage, Russia entered into interaction with the Haqqanis. In the words of Brzezinski, it operates on the principle "the enemy of the enemy is our friend." But due to various factors, including the economic crisis and the US block of Afghan money, they are reluctant to take the bait that could get stuck down their throats.
* The organization is under UN sanctions for terrorist activities