Not only Russia but also a coalition of countries is preparing to recognize the Taliban.
Author: Andrey Serenko, head of the Center for the Study of Afghan Politics (Russia)
Russia, China, and the countries of the region are preparing joint recognition of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan
1 - Accelerating the project of political recognition by Moscow of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan (in two stages - first exclusion from the national register of prohibited terrorist organizations, then political recognition of the Taliban government) may be part of the agreements of Russia, China, as well as several states in the region.
2 - It seems that Moscow, Beijing, and their regional partners are trying to get ahead of and stop new political initiatives by Washington and its allies in the Afghan direction, which may follow after the change of administration in the White House in six months.
3 - However, even without waiting for this historical event, it is obvious that the Americans are increasing their activity in contact with some influential leaders of the Taliban factions, with representatives of alternative political groups of the Afghan emigration and the Afghan armed anti-Taliban Resistance.
4 - The countries of the region risk finding themselves in the position of catching up, only reacting to the latest American projects regarding Afghanistan. And the bid for accelerated recognition of the Taliban regime is perhaps an attempt to get ahead of the curve.
5 - Time will tell how successful this attempt will be. Now we can expect the emergence of a Chinese initiative regarding political recognition of the Taliban regime - in the development of the Russian demarche to exclude the Taliban from the national “black list” of prohibited terrorist organizations.
6 - It is no coincidence that “movement” in this direction arose in Moscow almost immediately after the end of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing. Most likely, the Russian initiative regarding the Taliban was agreed upon and synchronized with the Chinese comrades.
7 - Obviously, Moscow will not agree to change the format of its relations with the Taliban regime without agreement with Beijing. The process of assembling and formalizing a coalition of regional countries ready to join this project (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran) is also beginning.