Russia is the only denominator of security in Central Asia.
Author: Razmanda, analyst, especially for Sangar
Central Asia is surrounded by a security fence, and if it tries to get out of it, it will be stuck in a hole of destabilization, which will have a direct impact on its situation. It is in this sense that countries must have detailed knowledge of the security environment. They must choose either security or economics or both. There is no doubt that Central Asia has become Russia's traditional sphere of influence in the security field, and no change in its security dynamics is possible without Russia. Even China with its huge investments, trying to penetrate this zone and trying to enter it, like the Russians, has not been successful.
From the southern wall of this territory to its eastern and western fences, everything is subject to Moscow’s security doctrine. That is why Russia will retain its influence in this region, no matter how weak it may be.
Central Asia has been the focus of the world's major economic powers for several years now, and these powers are constantly trying to replace Russia. An attempt to remove Russia from the security and economic views of the axis of these countries that determines its destiny, and what is interesting is that these efforts have not had any impact on the security dynamics in this region. Events in Afghanistan, and Iraq, the instability of Pakistan, and the narrowing of the circle of security pressure, as well as the resulting threats to Iran, caused a wave of security. In the North Asian space, without a doubt, all calculations in the political, economic, and security spheres of these countries are possible taking into account Russia. And not on a separate equation.
Although the countries of Central Asia have been neutral regarding the Ukrainian crisis and cross-border movements of Russians, the foregone fate of the region is still determined by Russian security and political doctrine. However, the countries of Central Asia, which are parties to the Collective Security Treaty and the regional security space, have concluded that it is better to be in the sphere of influence of the Russian doctrine than to be a victim of seditious investments by the West.
Although the efforts of the United States, England, and the European Union are aimed at penetrating the orbit of this region, two goals can be pursued on this axis:
- attempts to penetrate Russia’s traditional sphere of influence and compete with it for the acquisition of natural resources and cheap labor;
- Laying the foundation for a strategy to destabilize the region, which opens the way to the creation of the Southern and Second Fronts against the Russians.
In fact, the New Great Game has a new formula that places the two components of politics and economics on one scale, and the security element that replaces it on another. In this dilemma, Central Asia's neutrality and the West's attempt to make the region neutral vis-à-vis Russia have two possible goals:
- Gain influence and reduce the effectiveness of Russian security and political doctrine, which has influenced the region for many years;
- Devastation of the rear of the Russian Southern Front, which would pave the way for its defeat in a security and political crisis for many years.
So, based on this, the neutrality of Central Asia is the calculation formula of the West, which shows how the West creates security holes so that it can win the competition against the Russians. This region, unlike other regions, cannot use multiple approaches. On the contrary, only a monolithic Russian approach can only relatively preserve its security and protect it from the danger of being drawn into the circle of rivalry between the West and the East.