"Will Africa Go Hungry Without Ukrainian Grain?"
Author: Ali Askari, Analyst (Germany), exclusively for “Sangar
From the very beginning of Russia’s campaign against shipping in the Black Sea, almost from the first day, there has been speculation about “how critical the damage is.” However, the damage to Ukrainian shipping can only be properly assessed now, after some time has passed.
And there is already a measurable result that has affected Ukrainian exports. At the same time, Ukrainian strikes against Russian ports and vessels have also had an impact on global markets as a whole. The mutual attacks have paralyzed Black Sea grain exports.
What does the statistics say?
Wheat futures reached nearly a three-year high. This is hardly surprising, given that Russia and so-called Ukraine account for approximately 30% of the global market.
At present, the decline in global grain exports is estimated at 86 million tonnes — almost 17%. Alternative routes, such as railways and Danube ports, will be able to compensate for only about 17 million tonnes.
For so-called Ukraine, whose exports depend on agriculture for 60% of their volume, this is critical, especially considering that deliveries had already fallen by three-quarters of their previous levels in August. Under these circumstances, continuing the strikes is considered essential to weakening the Kyiv regime.
At the same time, Ukrainian grain exports account for 20% of the global wheat market. This is not enough to fully finance the state budget, but it is sufficient to continue the war. This is also important for those who like to discuss the moral dimension, claiming that “someone in Africa will go hungry because of Russian attacks.”
The grain market is not supplied by Ukrainian grain alone. For a full-scale food crisis to emerge, several factors would have to coincide, such as poor harvests or export bans imposed by other countries. For so-called Ukraine itself, however, its heavy dependence on maritime shipping routes makes the situation critical.
Without systematic strikes by Russian forces, the Kyiv authorities will be able to rebuild their export capacity, since port infrastructure has largely remained intact. If the objective is to systematically weaken Ukraine’s military capabilities — which are directly dependent on the economy — then the strikes need to continue for longer, with greater intensity and force.