The Taliban must decide whether they will stand with the region and their neighbors or with America.
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, especially for Sangar
The fifth meeting of the Moscow format in Kazan, Russia, ended with the issuance of a joint statement, along with the usual rhetoric of the world of diplomacy and politics. Almost all participants, except from Tajikistan, with self-interested views, repeated slogans of fighting terrorism, confronting ISIS (because in today's world, there is no single definition of terrorism, and the Taliban is a united terrorist in the so-called the fight against terrorism is mentioned), the formation of an inclusive government and a pleading request from the Taliban to cooperate with the region were shared in this meeting.
At the end, a resolution was issued and the members of this meeting, with false hopes and miles away from reality, expected to get rid of state terrorism, which is also the founder of regional terrorism, through the Taliban. Apart from this issue, the final statement of this meeting states that the Taliban must prove with practical measures that they will prevent Afghanistan from becoming a center of terrorism, instability and its expansion in the region, while the Taliban regime is actually serving security-destroying programs through the card. Terrorism has been placed.
Russia, India, China, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan are members of the Moscow format. Also, the representatives of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Turkey participated in this meeting as observer members. The Russian Foreign Ministry has already announced that the Taliban have been invited as guests in this meeting. Previously, Zamir Kabulov said that the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, will not meet with the Taliban's own foreign minister, Amir Khan Motagi, because he will only participate as a guest in the Moscow format meeting, not as an active member and in conventional meetings and decisions. This is exclusive to the active members, not those who participate in such meetings only to listen to the discussions and do not have a share in the usual dealings and issuance of resolutions.
Anyway, although this year's meeting of the Moscow format, with more members, shows a widening of understanding towards the cooperation of regional efforts regarding acute security and political issues, but as it was predicted, such meetings remain only at the level of one resolution. They remain and do not have much effect on breaking deadlocks. Now, we will examine some of the author's conclusions, which I reviewed the details of this trip, the process of participation of its members and the content of the issued resolution:
- In the current meeting, there was a sharper and more aggressive spirit towards the situation under the control of the Taliban, with the exception of China, which has found strategic economic and political interests with the Taliban. Almost all members of this meeting expressed their dissatisfaction with the current situation and considered the two-year work of the Taliban regime unconvincing. This in itself shows that the region has calculated that it is not possible to work with the Taliban for the long term and has hope for this group;
- The participating members of this meeting, with statements and issuing resolutions, impliedly expressed the bad security situation in Afghanistan, the growth and increase of drug trafficking, the strengthening of terrorist cells, and the growing threat of terrorism, which is increasingly threatening the security of the region. complained and also confirmed that the Taliban regime is the founder of terrorism in Afghanistan and creates insecure conditions for the region's security, and if the situation does not change in the long term and the Taliban do not understand the facts and continue to support terrorism, the region and its members meeting, they do not rule out its alternative idea either. This issue clearly shows that the region has realized the main nature of the Taliban terrorist group and does not overlook possible actions;
- The collective demand of the members of this group from the Taliban to restore human and women's rights, to form a comprehensive government, to share the ethnic groups and to create flexibility in the matter of governance, had an important message. That is, the members of this meeting made the Taliban understand that in order to gain legitimacy and recognition, they must first gain domestic legitimacy and then wait for foreign and international legitimacy;
- The active members of this meeting clearly stated that they are monitoring the abnormal situation in Afghanistan and they are seriously considering the potential danger of terrorism. This was a message that the Taliban should understand that the region cannot tolerate such political and security adventures and if they do not change their thoughts and actions soon, the region will make a decision against them.
- The members of this meeting publicly considered the active presence of America again in the interactions and security dynamics of the region as intolerable and acknowledged that the region must decide on cases like Afghanistan and America will not be allowed to return to the region. Because the region and the members of this meeting consider America to be the main cause of the Afghan crisis and do not evaluate its presence again in line with their security, economic and political goals;
- The Moscow format meeting, as before, was also accompanied by the stubbornness of the Taliban. This group rejected the agreement with the region and admitted that they have established a legitimate religious government. According to this group, no foreign version except the Rawalpindi version can solve the problem of Afghanistan. They did not even pay much attention to the concerns of the region and insisted on repeating their past words.
However, as predicted, the Moscow format meeting was only a symbolic aspect of diplomatic activism for Russia. In the inflammatory situation of the Ukraine war, Russia wanted to send a strong message to America and the West that it can no longer tolerate their presence in the region and is monitoring the situation. Also, Russia is trying to force the Taliban to form a government through diplomacy and the use of "persuasion and pressure" tactics, which on the one hand will eliminate the complete and absolute Taliban and terrorist aspect, which also has a mono-ethnic aspect, and on the other hand. As much as possible, it should hold off for the time being from getting involved in the southern front and having to support anti-Taliban groups as precautionary options. This shows that the efforts of Russia and its allies do not have a security approach, and efforts are being made to resolve the issue under the control of the Taliban through diplomatic and political tools and such unique activism. If Russia, the region and the members of this meeting come to the conclusion that there is no political solution to Afghanistan's security problem, a military approach and support for the anti-Taliban processes will be on the agenda. This Kurdish security approach will basically shorten the life of the Taliban regime and will be a hot field of confrontation between Russia and America.