How will the Tajik-Kyrgyz border agreement affect Central Asia?
Source: Sputnik Tajikistan.
With the visit of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon to Kyrgyzstan and the signing of many documents, the era of disagreements between the two countries gave way to a period of cooperation.
Border disputes between the republics began in the 1970s during the Soviet era. The first conflict was resolved by the Soviet government, but after the collapse of the superpower, the confrontation flared up with renewed vigor.
Over the years of independence, there have been more than 230 incidents between the republics. The hottest phase was the period from 2019 to 2022, when both sides suffered significant losses.
According to various sources, over the past 50 years, as a result of Tajik-Kyrgyz border disputes, about 800 people have been killed and injured, and about 400 houses have been damaged or destroyed.
The reason for this standoff was the undivided 70 sections of the 984-kilometer common border. However, since 2022, the republics had been actively consulting on resolving the situation, and finally, on December 4, 2024, demarcation work was completed. And on March 13 of this year, the President of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, and the head of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, signed a final agreement, which marked the end of almost 50 years of conflict.
Although the Tajik and Kyrgyz oppositionists accuse their governments of excessive leniency towards the other side in matters of border demarcation and "ignoring national interests", the official authorities of the republics call the end of border disputes a major historical achievement and the beginning of a new era in relations between the two countries.
Regional experts agree that the national interests and common will of the two countries played a key role in resolving the border disputes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. After all, if the authorities themselves did not want and did not make efforts, then all internal and external support would be aimed at continuing their disagreements, political scientists explain.
According to them, the agreement on the border between the two republics should have been signed during last year's Navruz, but the process had to be postponed due to foreign intervention and some internal factors.
Professor of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies of the Tajik National University Abdulgani Mukhammadazimov, in an interview with Sputnik Tajikistan, noted that Dushanbe and Bishkek were never interested in the conflict and that the dispute could be resolved became obvious from the very beginning.
"This situation was dictated by foreign intelligence, which wanted the conflict to escalate into a long war. Three years ago, a strong government came to power in Kyrgyzstan, which took the initiative into its own hands and brought the matter to an end," he noted.
He recalled that before Shavkat Mirziyoyev came to power in Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz route was considered a "lifeline" for Tajikistan, since Tashkent pursued a kind of unspoken hostile policy towards the neighboring republic, introduced a visa regime and high duties on goods imported and exported by Dushanbe.
"Kazakh grain, Russian oil products, Chinese industrial goods, and other goods often entered Tajikistan through Kyrgyzstan. When relations with Uzbekistan improved and the routes were opened, Bishkek lost one of the instruments of pressure on Dushanbe," the professor noted.
Most experts associate the resolution of the border dispute between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan with new challenges in the region and in the CIS and SCO space, which showed the need to resolve the crisis in Central Asia. Members of these organizations need strong security more than ever to ensure political and economic stability.
According to security expert Firdavs Jalilov, the "Eastern Axis" represented by Russia, China and Iran are in fierce competition in Central Asia with the "Western Axis" represented by the United States and Europe together with the Turkey, but the agreement on the border between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan showed that the West lost.
"There is accurate information that the West also invested in the border disputes with Tajikistan through influential circles in Kyrgyzstan. However, the Eastern Axis was able to support the negotiation process of the parties at the political, diplomatic, and power levels; otherwise, the "Western Axis" would never have allowed the fire to subside and the means of pressure to be lost," he said.
Firdavs Jalilov added that Russia, as a key CIS country, first of all needs security in this area and a protected trade route to South Asia, China needs peace on its eastern borders and along the "One Belt - One Road" route, and and Iran does not want another conflict to break out in the region along with the Middle East.
"The geopolitical interests of regional powers and the Central Asian countries themselves played an important role in resolving border disputes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan," the expert emphasized.
As Abdugani Muhammadazimov noted, the economic growth of the two countries last year was about 7%, and closed borders prevented this.
"Kyrgyzstan is a trade hub between China, Central Asia, and Russia, and needs a safe route to the south passing through Tajikistan. And in the grandiose CASA-1000 project, in which both countries play a key role. Tajikistan needs access to the trade hub of Kyrgyzstan to connect with the north, in particular, with the EAEU space and China. And all these dependencies are natural. Therefore, why go against your interests?" said the professor of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies of the Tajik National University.
Experts say that with the signing of the border agreement, the era of disputes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will give way to a new era of economic cooperation, while at the same time eliminating the last real threat to regional security, which will be significant not only for Central Asia, but also beyond its borders.