The Israeli media were the first to report the crash of Raisi's helicopter.
Author: Ahmad Saidi, an analyst on Afghanistan and regional issues (Germany), especially for Sangar
Some friends interested in analysis and study asked me what would happen in the region after the death of the Iranian President, will there be a shock to Iran, will there be tension within Iran and the region or will everything continue calmly?
In my opinion, there is no doubt that the death of Ibrahim Raisi will cause significant upheaval within the Iranian government. Whether these upheavals will impact society is another question.
In my opinion, Iran's politics are currently in the hands of Ali Khamenei, the religious leader of Iran, and not the president. Khamenei makes policies, Khamenei makes decisions, and Khamenei appoints the president.
In any case, Iran has gone through such risks. Friends know that after the fall of the Shah at the beginning of the reign of Abulhasan Bani Sadr, the President was criticized in the Iranian parliament and impeached, and in 1360 (1980) President Mohammed Ali Raja'i and Prime Minister Bahunar were assassinated. It was said that this was the work of the Iranian organization Fidaeyan Khalq, but nothing happened, the government continued its work.
Raisi is the third president to be either killed or removed from office in Iran.
Currently, his deputy, Mohammad Mokhbir, who is one of Ali Khamenei's confidants, has come to power.
According to the Iranian Constitution, Mokhbir can hold the presidency for two months to 50 days, with general elections to be held after two months or 50 days.
Suppose Mohammad Jawad Zarif, the former foreign minister, puts forward his candidacy, or Qalibaf, the speaker of parliament or other persons apply for the post of president of the republic. In that case, the situation will be somewhat different.
However, while several Western countries, including Israel, and the US, are happy with Raisi's murder, several Islamic and non-Islamic countries have sent messages of condolences and sympathy.
Afghanistan expressed regret and sent condolences, Pakistan declared a day of national mourning, Turkey said it was ready for any kind of cooperation, and Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, spoke with Mohammad Mokhbir, the interim president of Iran, and expressed his support. He declared his support for a strong Iran.
This situation will continue, but Iran will control the situation since Ali Khamenei, the religious leader of Iran, plays a key role in domestic politics.
Undoubtedly, whoever becomes the presidential candidate for the presidency in the next two months, the role of voters will be very small, most people will not go to the polls and the least number of votes will be used.
Iran-Afghan relations will not remain the same and there will be changes in foreign policy. Iran will defend the oppressed Palestinian people and continue its policies in the Middle East.
Iran knows very well that after the death of President Raisi, Israel and several Western countries celebrated and rejoiced. This is a complex that arises between the Islamic and non-Islamic worlds.
In any case, tension in the region will not decrease but will increase. Iran will maintain its position because Ali Khamenei, the religious leader of Iran, is still alive.
In any case, an investigation must be carried out to identify those responsible for this incident, since there was disagreement over the issue of Ali Khamenei's successor. Some believed that Raisi would succeed Ali Khamenei as religious leader after the presidency, and some believed that the successor would be the son of Imam Khomeini.
And now. Why was Raisi's helicopter attacked and destroyed, and why did the other helicopters arrive safely? Did Israel's friends play a role in this incident? Did Iran's opposition play a role? Why did satellite phones fail? Why was Iran unable to find the wreckage of the helicopter and turned to Turkey for help? Because of this and hundreds of other problems, Iran faces many problems...
If we conclude, tension will remain, Ali Khamenei's policies will continue, and tension in the Middle East will continue. But if Mohammed Javad Zarif or Qalibaf becomes president, politics in the region, especially in Afghanistan, will change significantly.
And hundreds of other issues that I cannot share with you in detail due to lack of time. In the future, God willing, I will write about important and comprehensive issues in future articles, but they require investigation, for example, why the Israeli media were the first to report the helicopter crash.
Why the American authorities remained silent until the end, and why some countries failed to reflect on the situation at the same time - these are questions that should be investigated and investigated comprehensively.