Iran's relations with Hezbollah will no longer be as stable as they were during Hassan Nasrallah's time.
Author: Ahmad Saeedi, Afghanistan and regional analyst (Germany), especially for "Sangar"
After the assassination of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, I have seen and read many articles and comments from analysts from different countries. But I do not agree with most of them.
Some say that such and such a person will replace Hassan Nasrallah and the situation in the region will calm down, but I want to share with you what I know and believe.
The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah has dangerous consequences.
Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Lebanese Hezbollah, was known as one of the key figures in Middle East politics. He became a symbol due to the effective leadership of Hezbollah and its role in the balance of power in the region. The possible consequences of Hassan Nasrallah's assassination for the political and security situation in the Middle East have wide-ranging implications.
His assassination could lead to increased internal tensions in Lebanon. Hezbollah, as one of the main forces in the country, could face internal crises in the absence of a strong leader like Hassan Nasrallah. Various groups could try to seize power in Lebanon, and this could lead to internal conflicts that would be very difficult to control.
On the other hand, Hezbollah was heavily dependent on the financial and military support of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah could change the relationship between Hezbollah and Iran. I have less faith that Hezbollah will appoint a new leadership that will necessarily be in line with Iran's interests, but I think the trust that existed between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Hezbollah will no longer exist after the death of Hassan Nasrallah.
Overall, these changes may affect Hezbollah's military and political strategy.
On the other hand, after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, there is a high probability of increased tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel may take advantage of the chaotic situation in Lebanon and the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and intensify military attacks against Hamas and even the Houthis in Yemen, that is, challenge the Houthis in Yemen and target Hamas in the Palestinian territories, which will lead to a wider conflict in the region.
I believe that Israel will not calm down, it will continue to attack the Houthis and Hamas. Israel will also try to carry out its attacks inside Lebanon.
Even the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah may cause a split among the resistance groups because there will be doubts about who gave the information that caused the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah. In this regard, a country or a group of people may be blamed. This problem will lead to a lack of trust between the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah. The absence of a unified leadership could lead to a decrease in coordination between the groups and affect joint efforts against Israel and other threats. This division could decrease Hezbollah's influence at the regional level, which I believe.
But the bottom line is:
The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, given his delicate position in the Middle East, could have far-reaching consequences. From increasing tensions in Lebanon to changing relations between Iran and Hezbollah and increasing regional risks, this event could lead to greater instability in the Middle East. I am sure that the situation in Lebanon will not remain calm and stable. It will face many problems. When Israel attacked Hassan Nasrallah in a significant and confidential meeting, we must conclude that Israel can have many mercenary spies among Hezbollah itself and those who are against Israel.
After this, I am sure that Iran's relations with Hezbollah will no longer be as stable as they were under the presence of Hassan Nasrallah.