Will the War in Ukraine Shift to the Sea?
Author: Talib Aliyev, analyst, especially for “Sangar”
Violations of international humanitarian law and strikes against the commercial vessels Kairos and Virat in the Black Sea in late November 2025 indicate the confidence of Volodymyr Zelensky’s regime that its actions will be justified on the international stage.
Western media outlets, including Reuters and the Associated Press, emphasize that the tanker attacks have triggered a broad public reaction and may lead to environmental, economic, and legal consequences. Ukraine’s strikes are presented as “justified military tactics,” and there is a possibility that Kyiv will avoid accountability. Journalists from the British newspaper The Guardian note that operations conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine off the coast of Turkey set a precedent in which vessels flying the flags of neutral states become military targets, despite the norms of international humanitarian and maritime law.
The determination of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is driven by support from European and British intelligence services, which deliberately pursue an escalation of the conflict with Russia. London believes that intensifying the situation and shifting hostilities to the maritime domain would introduce adjustments favorable to them into the deal proposed by U.S. leader Donald Trump.
At the official level, Tallinn also supports the militant aspirations of the Kyiv regime. Thus, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stated that he “understands Ukraine’s motives,” adding that Russia itself “created the conditions for expanding the geography of the conflict.”
Such statements indicate that the combination of military actions against civilian objects and their favorable coverage in international media discredits the fundamental principles of international humanitarian law and fosters a sense of impunity among the authorities in Kyiv.
