Did the Moscow meeting on Afghanistan show the region's departure from the Taliban regime?
Author: Jamshid Yama Amiri, journalist
One year and five months after the rule of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the countries of the region, which played an effective role in the victory of the Taliban, are changing their policy toward the Afghan issue one by one.
The failure of the Taliban to contain ISIS, the patronage of the East Turkestan Movement, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and the Ansarullah of Tajikistan, have caused deep concern in neighboring countries and the region.
The level of concern of the countries of the region was revealed at the fourth meeting, known as the Moscow format. All countries, including Pakistan, have criticized the actions of the Taliban over the past year and a half. Russia's dissatisfaction manifested itself when it did not invite a Taliban representative to the fourth meeting of the Moscow format. The Taliban have been the centerpiece of three meetings in years past.
At the fourth meeting of the Moscow format, the countries of the region expressed their concern in two areas: the growing threats caused by the establishment of bases and the influence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan, and the tough policy of the Taliban towards women, ethnic and religious minorities and the formation of an inclusive government in Afghanistan. The countries of the region have openly declared that the Taliban are losing in both areas.
Countries in the region, especially Iran, Pakistan, China, and Russia, played a role in overthrowing the regime of former Afghan President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani and returning the Taliban to power. These countries played a decisive role in boosting the morale of the Taliban and the fall of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan by organizing regional meetings called "peace" and inviting Taliban leaders, as well as providing armed and financial support to the Taliban movement.
When the Taliban returned to Kabul, most countries and international organizations left Afghanistan. But these countries continued their diplomatic presence in Kabul and close cooperation with the Taliban. Pakistan, Iran, China, and Russia surrendered Afghan diplomatic missions to the Taliban. The Afghan embassies in Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, and Islamabad are practically at the disposal of the Taliban. Some countries in the region even considered recognizing the Taliban.
But one year and five months were enough for the region to realize that the Taliban are not only not ready to rule and take over the leadership of Afghanistan, but also do not have the ability to interact and cooperate with the region, and the continuation of their current policy is a “danger signal” for all neighboring countries and countries in the region. The Taliban have promised that Afghanistan does not pose a threat to any country. But practically Afghanistan has become the biggest regional threat and danger.
The countries of the region hoped that the Taliban would prevent the influence and activities of ISIS-Khorasan, oust the Islamic movements of Central Asia and East Turkestan from the borders of Central Asia and the northern provinces of Afghanistan, and also force the Tehrik-e-Taliban of Pakistan (TTP) to negotiate and compromise with the Pakistani army. But those expectations were not met. The Taliban still make strategic alliances with regional radical movements, and they not only do not interfere with their activities and presence in the territory under their rule but also support them and prepare them for infiltration and actions in the countries of the region.
According to a report by Western intelligence agencies, the Khorasan branch of the ISIS group is already capable of cross-border operations. Central Asian radical movements are waiting for an opportunity to attack their countries of origin. Since the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, the TTP operations and the losses of the Pakistani security forces have increased several times. The Pakistani army entered into a full-scale war with this movement. Several top TTP commanders have been killed in Afghanistan in recent months. In response to shelling along the Duran Line and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the TTP group has increased several times over. In the latest of these attacks last Wednesday, six Pakistani security forces and two border guards were killed.
The Taliban not only did not interfere with the activities and presence of the TTP but also financed its bases in the border provinces and sheltered its leadership in Kabul. The situation angered Islamabad. The Foreign Minister of Pakistan, taking into account the developments in the region and the increase in the number of militant attacks, demanded a review of his country's policy towards terrorist groups. Bilawal Zardari said the world's patience with the Taliban has come to an end. He said they would not make the decision to recognize the Taliban on their own.
The Taliban not only failed to stop the Pakistani Tehreek-e-Taliban movement but also became a double problem. Over the past year, Taliban border guards have opened fire on Pakistani forces many times. In the latter case, Taliban border guards clashed with Pakistani troops in Paktika province on Friday. Earlier, a Taliban soldier killed several Pakistani soldiers in Spin Boldak, Kandahar province, which led to the closure of the Chaman border crossing.
The situation has led some observers to demand a review of Pakistan's "strategic depth" policy towards Afghanistan. The widely read newspaper The Down wrote that the long-term policy of "strategic depth" towards Afghanistan had come at a high cost. After the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban to power, trade and transit relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have declined. In addition, Pakistan is experiencing an unprecedented economic crisis. The Pakistani currency has lost its value against foreign currencies at an unprecedented rate. Many observers see the situation as linked to events in the region and Afghanistan.
The change in tone of countries in the region towards the Taliban has raised concerns among some pro-Taliban politicians. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the leader of Hizb-e-Islami and a supporter of the Taliban regime in Kabul, expressed concern that Russia, Iran, and India would once again back rival Taliban factions. They supported the Resistance Front in the 90s and assisted US forces in the US attack on Afghanistan 20 years ago.
Some countries in the region are outraged by the Taliban's efforts to rapprochement with the United States. The Taliban's policies towards women, religions, and ethnoreligious minorities are frustrating and some are concerned about the rapid growth of extremism in Afghanistan.
It seems that the Taliban failed to respond to any of the concerns. The change in the position of the countries of the region has turned the last hopes of the Taliban into disappointment.
The Taliban have established relationships with Iran, Pakistan, China, and Russia. But these countries practically rejected the Taliban at a recent meeting in Moscow.
The policy of Western countries towards the Taliban is also understandable. Without an inclusive government in which women, ethnic groups, religious movements, and political groups have meaningful participation, there can be no question of recognizing the Taliban government. The Taliban are practically isolated on a global level. However, the Taliban leaders do not seem ready to make any changes to their exclusionary and hardline policies.