The military tension between the Taliban and Pakistan is nothing more than a continuation of the intelligence scenario.
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security, and geopolitics researcher, exclusively for Sangar.
The author believes that what is happening between the Taliban and the Pakistani army is an intelligence game, a new tactic and a skillful trick; so that the existing game can be summarized in the existence of the Taliban and Islamabad can gain its calculated benefit from it.
Otherwise, now that the majority of the families of the Taliban leaders have their properties in Pakistan and the historically existence of suspicious and questionable intelligence connections between the leaders of this group and the Pakistani military intelligence, denies the possibility of any kind of rebellion from the Taliban against Pakistan. In my opinion, it is not logical to imagine that there has been a season of tension between Islamabad and the Taliban.
In addition, the conflict between the Taliban and the Pakistani army is a new chapter of the games that have been launched in the region under the direction of the UK, US and Pakistani military. A season of transformation in the type of intelligence game and creation of a false and upside down atmosphere, to cover up the existing facts about the complex relations between the Taliban and Pakistan based on the agenda of destabilization of the region. Because, in terms of nature, the Taliban is an element and tool under the control of Pakistan.
The occasional conflicts that occur in the region are mostly over drug convoys, disputes over the division of interests, and the type of political and intelligence games. But in some cases, Pakistan's reaction against the Taliban is due to the possible link that may be formed between the Pashtun elements in Pakistan and the Taliban and that may become a challenge for Pakistan in the future.
However, the Taliban have an interest in the current situation and Pakistan is playing purposefully in this regard. For example, in order to raise their tarnished image at the domestic level, the Taliban want to show a sense of nationalism, defense of the land, and the kind of effort to reclaim the areas claimed by Afghanistan on the other side of the Durand Line as a responsible political regime.
While Pakistan, with the same scenario, by sending a message is trying to monitor any possible game by India and other regional countries on the Taliban's card, and on the other hand, to show that it is a victim of terrorism. Of course, the increasing trend of the independence-seeking tendencies among ethnic groups living in Pakistan, such as the Balooch, Pashtuns, Punjabi and Sindhis, is a serious threat to the political future of Pakistan, but not to the extent that the Afghan Taliban can do anything in this direction and put in danger the political sovereignty of Pakistan. It does not seem very logical to calculate and consider that Taliban endangers the interests of Islamabad.
In addition, due to the nature and connection of the Afghan Taliban with transnational terrorism and extremist groups in the region and beyond the region and the program that this group is going to carry out to destabilize the region, the tension between the countries of the region and the Taliban and even the supporting countries from this group is inevitable from the security point of view, but the disobedience of the Taliban from Pakistan and the continuation of this situation cannot be predicted for now. Taliban, with their ideological alliance with other terrorist groups including TTP, are a tool to serve Pakistan's security interests.
Therefore, the possibility of continuing such military movements and border conflicts between this group and Pakistan is very weak; because the Taliban are very vulnerable in terms of military power, facilities and weapons, manpower and preparation for long-term war. On the other hand, in a situation where Pakistan is facing a political and economic crisis and confronting the Balooch groups, as well as a breathtaking competition with India in a historical manner, the continuation of such a war scenario does not seem logical. But the seasonality of these conflicts, based on the plan of the Pakistani military, has been a proven experience.
After all, the game is somehow complicated that even the Pakistanis want to involve China in the case and show that they have no control over the Afghan Taliban. The Pakistani newspapers have written that Pakistan should ask China to punish the Taliban, while the prevailing belief is that Pakistan is an intermediary in the direction of warming relations between the Taliban and China.
Although the Chinese are seeking influence in Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban, they have less room to play an effective and efficient game that can achieve Beijing's goals, because the Taliban have their own owner and the main owner of this group makes the final decision. It is no longer a secret to anyone that the Taliban is absolutely an Anglo-American program under the management of Pakistan.
On the other hand, Pakistan is trying to drag the region's feet into this self-made crisis by showing the issue regionally and gain points for itself. Because the Pakistani military knows very well that any kind of external interference (regional and extra-regional) causes money to flow in, which can be used to deal with the economic and financial crisis in Pakistan.
This is due to the fact that Pakistan, contrary to its calculations, which it had imagined, with the rule of the Taliban in Afghanistan, on the one hand, reaches its strategic depth in this country, and on the other hand, it can gain points from the region and beyond the region as the direct manager of this group. But now the region and the extra region have dramatically entered into a compromising interaction with the Taliban, and this will weaken the role of Islamabad in the next games regarding the Taliban card.
This is why the US State Department calls Pakistan an "important and key partner" of the US and admits that they are in regular contact with Islamabad when it comes to fighting terrorism and security issues. Pakistan also benefits from the current situation and tries to link the issue with transnational terrorism, which is supposed to involve the entire region in a regional destabilization process. This will cause the region and the extra region to turn to Pakistan again, and the playing card will be monopolized in the hands of Islamabad.
With that being said, conflicts like this have a set schedule. Nowhere in the historical narratives has been proven that a mercenary shot a bullet at his master. Taliban are alive despite Pakistan. If there is going to be a problem for Pakistan, the survival of the Taliban will be in danger. Pakistan will benefit as long as the Taliban remain in power and on its sidelines. No group like the Taliban is beneficial for Pakistan and no plan can be imagined by Pakistan against the Taliban or vice versa. The game is very complicated and one should not look at the appearance of the cases and imagine that the Taliban is no longer in control of Islamabad.