The Taliban must negotiate with their people and stop dictating terms to the world community.
Author: Nikolai Plotnikov, Head of the Center for Scientific and Analytical Information of the Institute of Oriental Studies Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Political Sciences, Source: “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” (Independent newspaper, Russia)
On February 8th, Moscow hosted a meeting of the security councils’ secretaries of Central Asian countries, Pakistan, India, and China. The Afghan problem was in focus. Russian President Vladimir Putin also met with them.
The Ukrainian crisis is now prevailing in world publications. Somehow, they forgot about Afghanistan. At the same time, there are processes taking place that have a direct impact on the security not only of neighboring states but also of other countries.
The Taliban have ruled Afghanistan for almost a year and a half. During this time, their government managed to resist and not crumble under the weight of problems. He also managed to stop large-scale hostilities that lasted 20 years. To start fighting corruption. The Taliban themselves claim that it has become smaller than under the previous government. No one knows how it is in reality. But this is probably all their achievements.
The violence continues in the country. Because of that many educated, talented people who are able to benefit their people have left Afghanistan. ISIS took responsibility for many terrorist acts (more than 230) in 2022. Recall that on September the 5th of last year, a terrorist act was committed near the Russian embassy in Kabul. Two Russian diplomats were killed.
The Taliban failed to establish a system of state administration. There are no qualified civil servants.
There is a split in the Taliban Movement (TM) into moderates and radicals. We are talking about the Kandahar Taliban, led by the acting Minister of Defense, Mullah Yakub (the son of Mullah Omar, the founder of the Taliban), and the Haqqani Network, headed by Sirajuddin Haqqani. It is believed that the former is guided by the United States and Qatar, and the latter by the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan. Among other things, the Haqqani Network is closely linked to al-Qaeda. Fighting between TM factions prevents the Taliban government from fulfilling its direct duties.
The humanitarian situation in the country is grave. It was exacerbated by the most severe winter in the last 15 years. In January, the temperature dropped to minus 34 degrees. Only according to official data, 166 people died from severe frosts. 260 thousand domestic animals died because of the cold and lack of food in 20 provinces of Afghanistan. No one really knows the exact picture of the conditions of the state administration’s collapse.
Families that feed themselves are deprived of their means of subsistence. There are a lot of poor people in the country. It will get worse in the spring. Afghanistan may face another drought this year. There has been a catastrophic shortage of water during the last two years. Such a long period of drought in the country has not been seen for a long time.
So far, the Taliban's promises to eradicate opium poppy cultivation have come to nothing. According to the UN, the area under cultivation in 2022 increased by 32 percent compared to the previous year. Three-quarters of all crops are in the provinces of Nimroz, Kandahar, Helmand, Uruzgan, and Zabul. Afghan drugs from the opium group account for 80 percent of world production.
Along with opiates, there seems to be a growth of methamphetamine production, the raw material for which is the local ephedra plant. Afghanistan is emerging as a major supplier of methamphetamine, the global demand for which is growing.
According to the law enforcement authorities of Tajikistan drug smuggling in Afghanistan doubled in 2022. The special services of Kyrgyzstan also report an increase in the circulation of the Afghan drug in the republic. The same negative trend is noticed in Uzbekistan and Iran.
There are many drug addicts in Afghanistan itself, including those women and children. Their exact number is unknown, but it is up to millions. The country is split. The Taliban did not become a power to unite all the Afghans. Ethnic and religious groups are excluded from the process of governing the country. This raises discontent among the non-Pashtun population and causes the emergence of the anti-Taliban opposition.
Over 25 international terrorist groups are still based in Afghanistan. For Russia and the Central Asia countries, the greatest threat comes from “Jamaat Ansarullah”, which transformed into “The Talib Movement of Tajiki-stan”, “The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan” and “The Islamic Movement of East Turkestan” (all of them initial-ly connected with “Al-Qaeda”), as well as the supporters of the local branch of ISIS and criminal groups. All these structures are engaged in drug trafficking and natural resource smuggling. They adhere to the Salafi ideology. Their goal is to replace secular regimes in the Central Asian countries with an Islamic caliphate, which territorially also included Afghanistan and partially – Pakistan and China.
As always, an obvious question arises – what to do? First of all – to recognize the current situation at this moment and to maintain a dialogue with the current authorities of Afghanistan, i.e. with the Taliban. The Afghans themselves must decide their fate and the fate of their country.
The Taliban need to prove actually that they are ready to wage an uncompromising struggle against the jihadist structures, to stop the trans-border threats to Afghan neighboring countries emanating from its territory, and to ban the cultivation of opium poppy and the production of drugs.
If the Taliban really want their country to prosper, they must do what it takes to unite the multi-ethnic and multi-religious Afghan society. This requires a launch of dialogue in the country. It is impossible to get out of the crisis without talking to their people and reaching compromises in a divided society. If the Taliban does not agree to do this, the conflict in the country may flare up with renewed vigor.
An indispensable condition for the development of Afghanistan is its integration into the economic ties with the regional states. All the natural and labor resources are available to do it. They should also involve experienced professional administrators, economists, and production managers in process of rebuilding the country, they must resolve the issue of girls’ education and provide opportunities for Afghan women to work.
Moreover, finally, the Taliban should realize that they do not have the authority to dictate their terms to the international community and to ask for any exclusive preferences for themselves without giving anything in return.