How Can Afghanistan Navigate This Situation?
Author: Sultan Ahmad Behin, former head of the Third Department of Afghanistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Whatever the outcome of the current war between Iran and the United States, the security vacuum and the threats arising from it will remain among the most serious challenges facing the Middle East.
If Iran emerges from the war with the upper hand, it could become the region’s undisputed dominant power, while the “resistance” movement could expand further across different parts of the Middle East. Under such circumstances, the deterrent power and security umbrella that the United States has built up in the region over many years would face a serious challenge.
On the other hand, a U.S. victory could turn Israel into the dominant regional power — one that is already evolving from a potential threat into an actual threat to the existing regional balance and could pave the way for a redrawing of the geopolitical map of the Middle East.
Under either scenario, there is a risk that a broad security vacuum could emerge, potentially leading to unconventional warfare, lawlessness, the spread of terrorism, and drug trafficking. This prospect is now a serious concern in the capitals of Arab states and far beyond. Even U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan are seeking to define their place within the emerging regional security order.
The formation of a security alliance among these three countries could signal declining confidence in the American and broader Western security umbrella. One important factor they share is their affiliation with the Sunni Muslim world, which could serve as a counterweight to the influence of Shiite Iran. At the same time, all three countries have, at various points, also regarded Israel as a common regional challenge.
The absence of a decisive victory in the current war will increase the importance of other players in the region. Russia is now more openly supporting Iran, while China does not want regional developments to come at the expense of its strategic interests.
From this perspective, even if security cooperation among the three countries is intended to strengthen or complement the U.S. security umbrella, it could, on the opposite side, lead to closer ties among Russia, Iran, China, and even North Korea, as well as to the emergence of new security arrangements. Such a development would increase the risk of the current conflict evolving into a broader global confrontation.
What About Afghanistan?
Afghanistan may be more exposed to the consequences of these developments than many other countries in the region. On the one hand, it shares a border with Pakistan, has religious ties with Saudi Arabia, and maintains historical relations with Türkiye. On the other, it shares a border and extensive ties with Iran, has political and military relations with Russia, and maintains economic ties with China.
Taken together, these factors place Afghanistan in an increasingly complex geopolitical predicament.
Managing such a crisis requires prudent diplomacy, a careful balance in foreign relations, and sustained efforts to prevent Afghanistan from being drawn into regional and global geopolitical alignments.