Andrei Serenko, Russian analyst, and head of the Center for Political Studies of Afghanistan summarized the assessments of Afghan experts
Source: Andrey Serenko's telegram channel
The scenario of "relative denial of the Taliban" in the future of Afghanistan/estimates of Afghan experts*
1 - Russia and Iran have already criticized the Taliban and boycotted this group at a meeting in Moscow.
2 - America today announced a desire to transfer power from the Taliban regime to an inclusive government in Afghanistan.
3 - The European Union initially does not consider the Taliban worthy to represent the people of Afghanistan.
4 - America may have realized that the Taliban are not happy with the negotiations and the only way to try to change the situation is to buy the Taliban with money. Hence the active financing (purchase) of the Taliban through various channels.
5 - The Taliban are politically "stuck and drowning" taking money. After that, they will simply have to accept the new realities of the country and agree to the division of power (including leaving Afghanistan with American money).
6 - This is where the scenario of creating a new ISIS becomes serious. Taliban fighters and commanders of the rank and file, realizing the betrayal of their leaders, will almost inevitably join ISIS - individually and collectively.
7 - Terrorist groups of immigrants from Central Asia and Pakistan will follow the same path.
8 - As a result, there is a high probability of a new war in Afghanistan with the participation of new centers of power, one of which will be the new ISIS.
*One of the versions that are being discussed today in the Afghan expert community.