Will the East Turkestan Islamic Movement and terrorist groups stay with the Taliban or join ISIS?
Author: Abdunasir Nurzad, Security and Geopolitics Researcher
The Taliban always do not show the danger of terrorism very seriously because they are the breeding grounds for terrorism. On the other hand, because this group has a military and intellectual commitment with foreign terrorist groups in Afghanistan, they refrain from any kind of reaction against them despite the pressure from neighboring countries and the region. This group shows that there is no other military and intellectual power against it. They even deny the existence of Daesh, which is hostile to the Taliban, but considering the wide-scale attacks planned and executed against the Taliban by this group, and on the other hand, the Taliban also launch operations against the nuclei of this group from time to time, the danger of Daesh is very great.
"Voice of Khorasan" magazine, related to ISIS, warned the Taliban that "Islamic State" fighters are present in places related to "Khorasan" and that the Taliban will have "difficult days" ahead. In its 23rd issue in Pashto language, this magazine called the Taliban "militants". This issue of ISIS magazine was published two days ago.
Currently, ISIS is the only powerful terrorist group in Afghanistan that can be a potential threat against the Taliban. The difference between this group and other terrorist groups active in Afghanistan is that others operate from Afghanistan's soil against other countries and thus create great security risks for the people of Afghanistan, but ISIS uses Afghanistan's soil as its refuge and has ambitious goals for attacks other countries. Because the Taliban have a duty to implement this project according to the US plan, they ignore this risk. Especially the Haqqani network that facilitates the ISIS project in Afghanistan.
The strengthening of the ISIS group due to the terrorist policies of the Taliban in Afghanistan means the strategic strengthening of this group in the geography of Afghanistan. Although ISIS shows that it is hostile to the Taliban, and the Taliban, in addition to a contradictory policy of denial and suppression against ISIS, does not show the existence of this group seriously, but the main issue is that right now, serious preparations are being made to create a platform and facilitate the establishment headquarter for ISIS exist in the northeastern regions near China and northern Afghanistan near Central Asia. Creating a platform for this group in the future can also create a big problem for the region. On the one hand, its presence and destructive activities challenge the security narrative of the Taliban and show that the Taliban are not honest in their words, and on the other hand, the large attacks that it launches against the officials of the Taliban group show that the Taliban are playing with the ISIS card and according to the plan, advances its own political goals.
One of the biggest attacks was the killing of Dawood Muzamal, the governor of the Taliban in Balkh. Recently, there were two attacks against Taliban officials in Badakhshan, in the first attack, the deputy governor of the Taliban was killed in this province and in the second attack, at least 17 people were killed, including the former commander of this group, for Baghlan Province. Most of these attacks are believed to be the settlement of scores within the Taliban group, and another opinion says that these killings were carried out by the Taliban leadership to prevent their dissatisfaction and rebellion due to the transfer of Pakistani Taliban forces in the north, but no one denies the presence of powerful terrorist groups.
IS THE ISIS IS A PHENOMENON THAT EMERGED FROM WITHIN THE TALIBAN?
Terrorist groups all share the same ideology. Terrorist thinking and violence are two aspects of this group. For this reason, many times, it is not possible to separate ISIS from the Taliban and other groups in terms of gaining political power and implementing their violent policies. In addition, ISIS lost its operational and combat power after being completely suppressed in the years before the Taliban came to power. Its structures were disintegrated and the number of its operatives were greatly reduced. Now, with a new approach, the ISIS is trying to revive itself. For example, it recruits from the Taliban and uses the tactics of this group. One of these tactics is recruiting Taliban forces to launch insider attacks; what the Taliban has been doing for the past two decades in the war against the Afghan government. In addition, ISIS has now changed its hierarchical structure and has been divided into networked but small cores. With this type of organizational structure, on the one hand, it can cover more geography, and on the other hand, it can prevent its collapse if a core is targeted. If one or two cores are damaged or even destroyed, the network structure of the whole system will not collapse and the group will not need to be rebuilt. In this type of structure, decision-making powers are given to small groups and they can quickly design and execute their attacks without wasting time. This tactic has already been used by the Taliban in the war against the Afghan government. It is said that the Pakistan Intelligence Organization was the designer of this organizational system at that time and Maulawi Abdul Kabir, the current head of the Taliban's Prime Minister's Office and the head of the group's Peshawar Council, implemented it. As this tactic was able to strengthen the Taliban and create a great challenge to the Afghan government, now that the Taliban is in place of the government and ISIS is in place of Taliban, it can create a similar situation.
Some of the Taliban fighters have not received what they think they are entitled to and are unhappy about this situation. Some others have not been able to give up the habit of rebellion. It is said that these two groups have joined ISIS forces in Khorasan. There is also a possibility that other factions of the Taliban will join ISIS. The joining of these groups from the Taliban to Daesh, considering their years of experience in terrorist activities, including launching suicide attacks, building infiltration networks in the "enemy" structure, and implementing the network structure plan, can make Daesh much stronger.
Using the same infiltration method, ISIS launched attacks aimed at assassinating Mullah Yaqub Mujahid, the Taliban's defense minister, and other Taliban leaders. This group was able to enter the houses of Taliban officials, but could not kill them and the operation failed. It is not easy to reach the homes of Mullah Yaqoub and other Taliban leaders.
Some of the other tactics of the Taliban that are now being used by ISIS are financing through drug production and trafficking, taxing drugs, extracting and selling minerals, blackmailing businessmen, and kidnapping the traders. Therefore, when ISIS can reach the homes of the Taliban's ministers of interior and defense, the danger for this group has become much more serious than two years ago, just as the danger of this group against the people of Afghanistan has also increased. Considering that according to the United Nations report, ISIS It has between 4,000 and 6,000 fighters in Afghanistan, the security situation will probably worsen in the near future.
The Taliban, who are more local in nature than regional and global, are not very suitable for advancing this program; but ISIS, which has even created the imaginary geography of its sovereignty over a part of Asia, Africa and Europe, is trying to establish an "Islamic caliphate" in a part of the world and does not recognize the current national borders of Islamic countries, a good option for implementing the expansion plan and transferring the war to New lands. With its successes in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has shown that it has the ability to launch an offensive war and take everyone by surprise. This possibility exists in Afghanistan as well, and the sparks of the rise of ISIS may soon appear with torrential attacks.
EAST TURKESTAN ISLAMIC MOVEMENT AND SECURITY THREAT ISSUE
Apparently, the Taliban consider other terrorist groups active in Afghanistan as their friends except ISIS. In the last two decades, these friends fought shoulder with shoulder with the Taliban against the Afghan government and certainly caused casualties. Now they have taken shelter under the rule of the Taliban and are threatening the neighboring countries from the Afghan soil, contrary to the commitment given by the Taliban, Islamic Movement of East Turkestan, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Ansarullah of Tajikistan, Arabs and other foreign terrorists are creepily reviving their operational power under the umbrella of Taliban rule. The Taliban have not shown any serious reaction against these groups so far. The Taliban know that the slightest movement and reaction against these groups will lead to the creation of a new front against their rule. The Taliban always deny the presence of these groups, but the reality of the matter is that these groups are still strong by maintaining operational power, the number of combatants, specific geography, the ability to recruit and unknown sources of income. The East Turkestan Islamic Movement is still present in specific areas of the north and northeast of Afghanistan with the weapons it had during the war against the former government of Afghanistan and foreign forces. Once the Taliban announced that they will transfer the members of this group to the southeast and eastern regions. But the latest information shows that this group is still present in the northern regions of Afghanistan. Their leaders live in guest houses of Taliban leaders and all facilities are available to them.
In addition, it is very likely that the leaders of the Al-Qaeda network are present in Afghanistan, and these Al-Qaeda leaders will take the lead and start organizing and mobilizing the members of the Uyghur group. Because the Taliban, with a mandatory agreement with the Uighur group, have taken a commitment from them not to go and carry weapons in cities and areas where there are many people and there is a possibility of seeing them by the people. This concealment shows that the Taliban are not very sincere in their commitments and are playing with the card of terrorist groups. In addition, even two thousand family members of the Al-Qaeda network are present in Afghanistan. This group has training bases in Badghis, Helmand, Nangarhar, Nooristan and Zabul. Reports of the presence of foreign fighters from Arab and other countries are being trained in Kunar and Nooristan are very common, where there is a camp of this network. Now the question is what are these trainings for? And what is its purpose? Even the war advisors and strategists of a number of these people with Afghan identity documents have been seen in the cities, which play an advisory role with the Taliban.
It is said that currently, the number of all terrorist groups reaches 20. These groups also supported the Taliban in the war against the former government of Afghanistan, and now they have thousands of fighters in Afghanistan, including in the north and northeast. Before the fall, it was said that the Taliban have people with them who do not understand Pashto, Persian or Uzbek in some areas they control. It was said that they were moving with their families in different parts of Afghanistan. Friends of the Taliban, who mostly target other countries, also harm Afghanistan.
In any case, the policies of the Taliban have made the Uyghurs angry. If the Taliban impose restrictions on how and where they should travel, not carry weapons and where they live, it is very likely that the Uyghurs will soon break away from the Taliban and join ISIS in Khorasan. Until the future of the Taliban's relationship with the Uyghurs is clarified, the Uyghurs will refrain from attacks based on the agreement they have made with the Taliban, but once they gain power and freedom to travel, they will launch massive attacks. The Uyghurs have maintained all their operational strength and are monitoring the situation in order to use both the Taliban and ISIS at a suitable opportunity and achieve their goals. Harming Chinese interests and facilities is their priority. This work is consistent with the strategic and essential interests of ISIS. ISIS is also trying to attract and attract foreign terrorists with the increasing differences between them and the Taliban group. The Uyghurs benefit from being close to both, but at the same time they have concerns. For example, they are afraid of becoming victims of ISIS and Taliban competition. Therefore, they are cautiously trying to choose the right way to preserve their existence and military structure and not to be destroyed in the competition between ISIS and Taliban. In the geography that they control in the north and northeast, the Uyghurs are trying to prepare the self-governing cores for the next events in order to have more operational power to defend the existence of this group and carry out more attacks on the interests and facilities of the Chinese. . This work is not acceptable for the Taliban, who want to rule over all foreign terrorist groups, and it sometimes causes conflict and tension in the relations between these two groups. What they have done in the past under the name of Uyghur’s in the attacks, is actually the work of the Taliban to get concessions from China and show the presence of Uyghur’s as serious and to put pressure on Uyghur’s and make them submit to their plans. The attack on the Chinese hotel was the work of two Tajiks who were not members of the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan, but were members of Ansarullah of Tajikistan, who carried out this attack on the order of the Taliban to show the presence of the Uyghur’s seriously. But nothing is predictable. It is possible that the Uyghurs, with the support of ISIS and even the Taliban, will soon take actions that cannot be analyzed in the current situation.
Conclusion:
The gathering of so many armed terrorists in Afghanistan is an immediate danger. As an enemy of regional security, ISIS is a more serious and urgent threat. ISIS has now openly threatened that it is trying to capture more geography in Afghanistan. Even Afghanistan's analysts in the Farsi-language media say that the alternative to the Taliban in the future is ISIS, and that ISIS will control the geography in the north and northeast of Afghanistan;- After the murder of al-Zawahiri, the terrorist groups have become suspicious of the Taliban and are worried that the Taliban may make a deal with them as well. Therefore, there is a potential possibility of ISIS recruiting from them, something that ISIS has correctly recognized and aims to create a difference between the Taliban and them;
- Choosing the geography of the north and northeast of Afghanistan is a calculated measure for ISIS and other foreign terrorist groups. Under these areas of geography, underground resources and drug trafficking route, there is a geography that can support the self-proclaimed ISIS caliphate of Khorasan for a long time. Because the drug trade, valuable underground resources, difficult-to-pass geography and the possibility of this geography becoming an uncontrollable war make this strategic achievement possible;
- The strong support of the opposing powers of the Asian allies (China, Russia, Iran and India) will make ISIS a potential threat. ISIS is slowly and creepily reviving its operational power. ISIS has recently warned the Taliban that soon by occupying more geography, it will narrow the field for the Taliban;
- The existence of ideological commonality between ISIS and other foreign terrorist groups in Afghanistan, which have cross-border ideologies and each of them has military activity against a specific country, facilitates the strategic and intellectual alliance between them. ISIS makes strategic use of this opportunity and shared opinion to weaken the Taliban and bring more geographical areas under its control.
- The Taliban, especially the Haqqani network, is the main founder of ISIS in Afghanistan. The Haqqani network has provided an active reserve division to ISIS with direct assistance of weapons and war advice. This work is due to the main mission of this network in the activation and expansion of ISIS and in the direction of internal competition with other Taliban groups;
- Dissatisfaction of foreign terrorists such as the Uyghur’s with the Taliban makes the ground favorable for ISIS recruitment. Because the leaders of Uyghur and other terrorist groups are worried that they will face the fate of Zawahiri and the Taliban will make a deal over them.