Will the "Islamic emirate" of the Taliban expect to break up into seven mini-states?
Author: Andrey Serenko
Source: Telegram channel "Andrey Serenko"
Recently, rumors about a possible transformation of the administrative-political system of Afghanistan have again become more active. These rumors are based on the thesis of "the inevitable and imminent dismantling of the current Taliban regime and America's return" to Afghanistan.
It is curious that in time the surge of these rumors coincided with the intensification of American diplomacy in the Afghan direction, in particular, with a large tour of the US President's Special Representative for Afghanistan, Tom West, to a number of countries, where he met with Afghan political emigrants, leaders of public groups, Afghan businessmen.
Rumor has it that the Taliban regime is moving inexorably towards its ultimate bankruptcy, which will lead to an internal war between Taliban groups and the destruction of the current "Islamic emirate" system. An important factor in this process is the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (FNSA), which is conducting a fairly successful armed struggle against the Taliban junta.
On the eve of a new period of Afghan turmoil, US diplomats have become more active, who, according to rumor makers, are preparing "America's return to Afghanistan." However, this will not be a military return, but a political one, which will be accompanied by a search for "new solutions to the Afghan settlement."
One such solution could be the transformation of Afghanistan into a federal or even a confederal state, which will consist of seven "states" (mini-states). It is assumed that these "states" will be created on both ethnic and territorial lines. In this case, Afghan Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, and, of course, Pashtuns will receive their "preliminary statehood" (the latter, at least two "states" - for Durrani and Ghilzais).
Such a transformation of Afghanistan, according to rumor makers, will not only separate various ethnic groups on different sides of the Afghan "ring", between which conflicts escalated again during the period of Taliban domination, but will also allow the actual "patronage" of various countries of the region to be secured by one or another Afghan " state."
While it is difficult to say how true these rumors are. Obviously, the situation in Afghanistan is not conducive to centripetal tendencies. Ethnic cleansing carried out by the Taliban in northern Afghanistan only reinforces the desire of Afghan Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks to stay away from the Pashtuns.
The countries of the region were powerless to stabilize Afghanistan after the departure of the forces of the Western coalition led by the United States. The request for "friendship with America" is still very strong among all Afghan political groups, including the Taliban.
This makes Washington still a priority center of influence on the Afghan situation. And if the United States decides to turn the "Islamic emirate" that failed as an effective state into the "United States of Afghanistan" (USAF), then it is unlikely that anyone will be able to seriously interfere with these plans today.
