The stability of Central Asia depends on the result of the Russian special operation
Andrey Serenko,
Political scientist, columnist, and own correspondent of "Nezavisimaya Gazeta"
The field commanders of the Afghan Taliban* (an organization banned in the Russian Federation) and other jihadist groups based in Afghanistan are closely following the events in Ukraine. Judging by the information received from several Afghan sources, some "jihad commanders" not only observe what is happening but also try to take part in them, while others are building their plans in the region taking into account the Ukrainian factor.
For the first time, the topic of Ukraine became of interest to Taliban commanders and fighters no later than mid-February, about two weeks before the start of the Russian special military operation. Then Afghan sources, in private conversations with NG, reported the unexpected desire of a number of Taliban to go to Ukraine in order to take part in the clashes that "will begin soon." At the same time, it became known that such a desire among Afghan militants arose not from an idle reading of news on the Internet - recruiters appeared in Kabul and a number of other cities of the country, offering good money for participating in upcoming operations on the Ukrainian side. Where the Taliban "employers" got decent financial resources to purchase jihadist mercenaries for the "Ukrainian front" can only be guessed at. Afghan sources, presenting their version, confidently named the United States as a sponsor, emphasizing that "the Americans maintained business contacts with the leaders of influential Taliban groups", transparently alluding to the terrorist "Haqqani network" banned in the Russian Federation. “Except for the Haqqanies, no one else can conduct such recruiting work in Afghanistan in an organized and confident manner today,” a former head of one of the Afghan special services told NG.
Now it is difficult to figure out exactly what task the Taliban were recruited to the "Ukrainian front" for - either to participate in the defense or, on the contrary, to support the Ukrainian offensive against the rebellious republics of Donbas. Afghan sources then, in mid-February, cited both of these reasons as justification for the recruitment of Taliban fighters. They also noted that Taliban functionaries with personal connections in a number of former post-Soviet republics played a central role in the February recruitment campaigns. Preference when concluding contracts for "work in Ukraine" was given to relatives, friends, and reliable acquaintances of recruiters. By the way, at the same time, it became known that some of the future "Ukrainian Taliban" in January 2022 had already participated in the riots in Kazakhstan, where the same Taliban functionaries also recruited them in a quite organized manner.
So far, there is no reliable information about the ways of transferring militants recruited in Afghanistan to the “Ukrainian front”. NG's sources familiar with the situation believe that the logistics should include the airports of Pakistan and Turkey, although they did not rule out other, more original routes. Nevertheless, NG's sources in Kabul have already had the pleasure of seeing a report photo of a Taliban recruiter sent to his relatives in Afghanistan from a major Ukrainian city.
In this story, the most interesting thing is that, as we can understand, the militants and field commanders of the Taliban, left without work after their unexpected victory in August 2021, begin to consider the post-Soviet space in a very specific way as a place to earn money in various “combat migration” projects. At first, it was, apparently in a test mode, Kazakhstan, now it's the turn of Ukraine ... One can only guess where else traces of jihadist "gentlemen of fortune" will be found. There is reason to believe that the leaders and security forces of the three Central Asian republics bordering Taliban Afghanistan - Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and especially Tajikistan - should be worried.
In this story, the most interesting thing is that the militants and field commanders of the Taliban left without work after their unexpected victory in August 2021, begin to consider the post-Soviet space in a very specific way as a place to earn money in various “combat migration” projects. At first, it was, apparently in a test mode, Kazakhstan, now it's the turn of Ukraine... One can only guess where else traces of jihadist "gentlemen of fortune" will be found. There is reason to believe that the leaders and security forces of the three Central Asian republics bordering Taliban Afghanistan - Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and especially Tajikistan - should be worried.
A few days ago, already at the height of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, Afghan sources of NG reported new movements of militants of the Jamaat Ansarullah* and Islamic State (IS)* organizations in northern Afghanistan. According to available information, several hundred Jamaat Ansarullah militants, commanded by a native of Tajikistan, Muhammad Sharifov (aka Mahdi Arsalan), partially moved from Afghan Badakhshan, where they controlled five counties of Kuf-Ab, Maimai, Shikai, Khwakhan, and Nusay, to the border with Tajikistan areas of the Afghan provinces of Kunduz and Takhar. Almost simultaneously with this, Afghan sources report to NG, militants from the Afghan branch of the Islamic State, led by Sanaullah Ghafari, moved to the northern Afghan province of Balkh, bordering Uzbekistan. All these movements are impossible without the Taliban's consent, Afghan sources familiar with the situation are sure.
In this regard, two new appointments in the power structures of the Taliban, which took place at the very beginning of March, are not without interest. First, a high-ranking member of the Haqqani network, Haji Mali Khan Haqqani, was appointed as deputy chief of the General Staff of the Taliban army, and actually headed this structure, which is engaged in planning military operations. Second, another henchman of the Haqqani network, Mawlawi Amir Khan Haqqani, became the commander of the 209th Al-Fath Army Corps, which is responsible for controlling the northern Afghan provinces bordering the post-Soviet republics. It is known that the Haqqani network has influence both on Jamaat Ansarullah and on the leadership of the Afghan branch of the Islamic State, playing the role of a kind of jihadist call center, coordinating terrorist operations under a variety of brands.
Afghan sources of NG, who are in contact with jihadist field commanders in the northern regions of the country, reported a few days ago that the latter are “very closely monitoring the events in Ukraine and directly link their plans with the prospect of a Russian special operation”: “If Putin can achieve his goals in Ukraine, this would mean that he retains control over the entire post-Soviet space. If the Russian operation fails, then a review of Moscow's right to control Central Asia could begin. In this case, militants are preparing in northern Afghanistan.”
*Organization is under UN sanctions for terrorist activities
