Why do Russians tolerate the Taliban's whims when this movement ignores their demands?
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, especially for Sangar
Here we answer this question: Why does Russia want to remove the Taliban from the list of terrorist groups? Our answer to this question lies in examining the foundations of Russia's geopolitical calculations and security and political goals, which are fully evident in Afghanistan, which is under Taliban control.
Russia was one of the first countries in the region to establish contact with the Taliban. After the republic's fall, its embassy in Kabul did not close its doors. The Russians have nothing in common with the Taliban. The Taliban is a completely Western phenomenon, reactionary and linked to terrorism and extremism. However, Russia's recent decision to delist the Taliban as a terrorist group shows that Russia is reluctant to get involved in the southern front in the current situation, with the war in Ukraine and the stalemate that has developed on the one hand, and the widespread conflict in the Middle East, which also involves non-state actors, on the other.
In this regard, Russia is seeking military and intelligence cooperation with the Taliban, on the one hand, to reduce the possibility of the Taliban getting out of control and establishing contact with them, and on the other hand, to achieve its geopolitical goals and its subsets, such as geostrategic and geoeconomic roadmaps to be followed. Moreover, it appears that the presence of ISIS-K and dozens of other terrorist groups has forced the Taliban and Russia to find common ground for cooperation.
But as far as we know, the Taliban receives tribute not only from Russia but from the entire region. Therefore, the Taliban increases the threat of ISIS and spreads its bitter side effects, which is the result of their intelligence work. In this way, they use Russia with Iran and China in their interactions in the region and benefit from the veto power of Russia and China in the Security Council to continue their power. It should be noted that, in addition to the warm relations between the Russians and the Taliban, China also has good relations with this group and its presence in Afghanistan has become very noisy.
Andrei Korobkov, an expert at the Moscow Institute of Strategic Studies, said that by removing the Taliban name from the list of banned groups, Russia is seeking to expand military and intelligence cooperation with the Taliban and the joint fight against ISIS. Korobkov said: “This step will allow Russia to expand military and intelligence cooperation with the Taliban. This cooperation may include the supply of light weapons [to the Taliban] and agreements on investment in the energy and mining sectors.”
The conventional wisdom is that Russia's goals include combating terrorism and any threat to Russia's national security and that of its partners in Central Asia, ensuring that its competitors will no longer be present in Afghanistan, investing in the mining and energy sectors, opening up Russian markets in Afghanistan, using Afghanistan's transit position to help Russia's economy prosper and expand trade links with South Asia, ensuring Central Asia's security, and making a collective effort to cooperate with China and Iran.
At the same time, competition for control of and communication with the Taliban has become a flashpoint in relations between Russia, China, and Iran, all of whom are vying for a greater presence in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Although the Taliban were invited as guests to two Moscow meetings, not only Russia but no other country in the region or beyond has taken the risk of formally recognizing the group and its regime.
Moreover, the Russians’ request at the last two Moscow format meetings to form an inclusive government and implement reforms from the Taliban received no response, but de facto recognition of the Taliban regime and ensuring tactical cooperation can be attributed to Russia’s strategic goals, which are largely rooted in its concerns about the security of Afghanistan, which is under Taliban control.
