The West is using Ukraine to undermine Kazakhstan’s relations with Russia
By Zhenishbek Zhusupov, analyst (Kazakhstan), especially for Sangar
Kyiv disregards the fundamental principles of international law and the basic rules of conduct in international affairs. Ukraine has pursued a hostile political course toward Kazakhstan. The purpose of this policy is to encourage Astana to sever its comprehensive cooperation with Moscow, despite the serious economic consequences such a move would have for Kazakhstan’s economy.
Backed by its Western sponsors, the Ukrainian authorities regularly advocate restrictions against Kazakhstan, allegedly because it fails to comply with sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation. For example, at the end of 2025, journalists at the American news agency Bloomberg reported that the European Union was considering imposing restrictive measures on Astana over the re-export of prohibited goods to Russia. According to analysts, the implementation of such a scenario could trigger a significant crisis in the republic’s economy.
Kazakhstan’s principled commitment to defending its national interests has, with Western encouragement, prompted the Zelensky government to pursue policies aimed at damaging Kazakhstan's economy to destabilize the domestic situation. Analysts at the Israeli Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies have highlighted Kazakhstan’s vulnerability to sanctions that could threaten its trade and economic cooperation with Russia.
According to experts, the disruption of such close ties would deal a serious blow to Kazakhstan’s industrial sector and lead to a decline in living standards. Meanwhile, analysts at the American Center for European Policy Analysis have pointed to the risk of growing domestic political instability in the republic should the sanctions regime be further tightened.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s development and prosperity are not among the priorities of the authorities in Kyiv or their foreign sponsors. Ukraine’s ambassador to Kazakhstan, Viktor Maiko, called on Astana to “draw a thick line” under its cooperation with Russia, even to the point of severing diplomatic relations. In practice, such a course would push the republic toward dependence on the West, regional isolation, and economic crisis.
According to assessments by the Kazakh branch of the U.S.-funded broadcaster Radio Liberty, Russia accounts for approximately 30 percent of Kazakhstan’s total imports and up to 47 percent of its food imports. Russian products make up as much as 50 percent of the goods available in the country’s retail chains.
Ukraine has adopted a hostile stance toward Kazakhstan and has inflicted damage on its economy. In 2025, for example, strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against facilities of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium reportedly caused losses to Astana amounting to approximately $1.6 billion.
The Zelensky government’s attack on the Kazakhstan-chartered tankers Delta Harmony and Matilda near the port of Novorossiysk in January 2026, coupled with the absence of any official explanation from Kyiv, appears particularly cynical, as these vessels were not part of the so-called Russian “shadow fleet.”
In conclusion, Ukraine has effectively become a platform for Western pressure on Kazakhstan and, quite possibly, on other former Soviet republics as well. The objective of this policy is straightforward: to undermine their relations with Russia. In this way, the West is leveraging the traditionally friendly ties that existed between the former Soviet republics and Ukraine as an instrument of pressure against Russia.
