What's going on behind the scenes of the current war between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran?
By Abdool Naser Noorzad, a security and geopolitical researcher, especially for “Sangar”
Original article: آخرین نبرد یا جنگ بین شرق و غرب
In times of chaos and the strengthening of the economic, political, and defense power of the main players in the international system, a suitable platform for geopolitical expansionism is usually created.
In the analytical discourse devoted to the factors that brought Israel into conflict with the Islamic Republic of Iran and why this crisis can spread geographically and become an international crisis, several geopolitical, ideological, military, and economic factors are involved. Expansionism, transnational ideals, extremist tendencies, economic greed, and ideological-military alliances play a significant role in shaping this confrontation.
The deep intellectual and cultural differences between Iran and Israel, Tehran's confrontation with most of the Arab powers in the region, the Islamic Republic's attempts to expand its political influence under the guise of an "axis of resistance" and Iran's growing proxy power through proxy networks have all laid the foundation for the current confrontation.
On the other hand, the West and Israel's efforts to prevent Iran's geopolitical, economic, military, and cultural rapprochement with the Eastern powers, especially China and Russia, have always been counterproductive. The China-Iran railway, Russia's connection to the southern waters through Iran, and the blocking of southern transport routes to Russia have plunged the region into a deep crisis. Although this crisis is still at the level of military action between Iran and Israel, the threat of intervention by major Western and Eastern powers is growing.
In principle, the destabilization of Iran could lead to a domino effect in the security sphere in the region. After Iran, other countries such as Iraq, Turkey, and the Arab countries are likely to enter this crisis. Therefore, China and Russia, aware of Iran’s geopolitical significance, have signed long-term strategic agreements with Tehran in advance to provide a basis for intervention and support in times of crisis.
The basic philosophy of Israel’s attack is based not only on the military threats from Iran but also on broader geopolitical developments. Major transnational projects such as the China-Iran railway, the Russia-South connection, and the Belt and Road Initiative have elevated Iran’s position on the geopolitical map. These developments have caused serious concern to Israel and its Western allies.
The railway is not just a symbol of physical connectivity, but part of an emerging East-centric order that is trying to reduce its dependence on the West. Therefore, Israel’s attacks on Iran’s military and logistical infrastructure are an act of containment and pressure on this new order. One of the important axes of this confrontation is the North-South Corridor, which connects Russia with India via Iran. This corridor has become the economic salvation of Moscow in the face of Western sanctions against Russia.
In this context, Israel acts as an instrument for the destruction of this new architecture, and the current war should be analyzed in the context of countering the rise of Eurasian powers.
The Iran-Israel war is not religious or ideological, not a battle for strategic points, and not an attempt at mutual destruction. Rather, it is part of a larger conflict between East and West. The goal is to contain the changing Asian order led by China and Russia. The West, using Israel, is trying to close economic chokepoints and resource supply routes in the region.
If this war were solely in the hands of Iran and Israel, it would probably either not have started or would have ended quickly. However, the intervention of the great powers has put on the agenda the questions of the balance of power, measuring the level of deterrence, and preventing the war from getting out of control. Thus, the current war is limited, retaliatory, temporary, and opportunistic. Although public opinion expects the “triumph of justice over injustice” to be realized as soon as possible, the colonial and imperialist intentions of the great powers prevent this goal from being achieved.
Initially, Israel was allowed to take the military initiative and strike Iranian command centers, intelligence, logistics infrastructure, military bases, and airports. In contrast, Iran responded to Israel’s advanced weaponry (largely provided with American support) by relying on its missile capabilities.
In fact, the balance of war is defined as missiles against fighters, drones against missiles, and limited attack against limited response.
Meanwhile, traditional security divisions in the region have given way to new ideological and geopolitical alliances. Alliances based on pan-Turkism, Shiite geopolitics, moderate Sunni Islam, and even a shared concern about an uncertain future have changed the political structure of the region.
Pakistan, Turkey, North Korea, China, and Russia have made certain security commitments to support Iran and deter Israeli aggression. In contrast, America, Europe, Britain, and some Arab countries that support American plans in the region are on the front lines and support Israel in this war.
These alliances are the basis for a broader confrontation that has gone beyond civilizational and linguistic boundaries and acquired geopolitical and ideological dimensions. In other words, what we are witnessing today in the form of the Iran-Israel war is part of the possible formation of World War III, which will determine the future balance of power at the international level. Determining the balance and the specific path of transition to a post-polar system in which the United States no longer has a voice.
But how can Washington so easily allow such a massive effort to bear fruit against the hegemonic wall it has built? As time passes and opportunities are distributed among influential international players, this question will become clearer.
