The UN Road Map on Afghanistan is a step towards US strategic confusion.
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, especially for Sangar
The United Nations has announced the development of a road map for the future of Afghanistan in order to overcome the current impasse. This is while this organization has not been able to play an effective and prominent role in the settlement of international cases due to numerous humanitarian, security, political and economic crises.
The issue of Afghanistan has been one of the political failures of this organization in the past forty years. Especially in these two years, when the Taliban were returned to power, this organization has only discussed and consulted at the diplomatic level in the role of monitoring the situation and has not done any practical work.
Now, after two years of Taliban rule, this organization intends to put forward a series of proposals to the Taliban as political incentives and implement a plan. But what is important is that this plan can be effective only for the security and political interests of the United States of America and become a prescription for studying America's strategic goals in the region.
In fact, the United Nations road map for Afghanistan is an attempt to maintain America's position in the region. Because the Taliban has not been able to advance the situation according to the Americans' wishes, according to the forecasts. Now let's talk about the reasons that can have many examples:
1 - The terrorism embedded in the territory of Afghanistan has not yet found its offensive and operational capacity to secure the security and political interests of America in the region. America's main interest is in challenging the security of the geography of Shanghai, whose main target is Russia, China, Central Asia and Iran, and this failure is due to the resistance of the region and the Asian powers, which has forced America to change its strategy through the United Nations and have a guarantee to maintain its position in the region;
2 - Contrary to expectations, the Taliban turned to the smart method of political games based on intelligence agreements and got out of the main circle of control and guidance of America and its allies. This has caused the US to fail in achieving its goals, which was to create security tension in the region, and hastily changed in the form of diplomatic mechanisms and international organizations such as the United Nations. to fundamentally transform the field. Staying or removing the Taliban from political power can be considered as possible options for this dramatic change in America's approach;
3 - In the past two years, the Taliban did not put aside their differences and its various branches fell into everyone's lap. This has caused the US to turn from relying on the option of 100% Taliban to the usual approaches and by changing the basic pieces in the game, keeps the rules of the game and use new pieces. It is in this sense that the formation of an inclusive government, political changes and reforms, and the spirit of Afghanistan's interaction are discussed in this road map;
4 - America has realized that it can no longer rely on the Taliban, because this group was opposed to the majority of the people and could not gain the necessary internal legitimacy. This made America think of an alternative to the Taliban. Maybe in the short term, this will not happen, but in the long term, the situation shows that the Taliban cannot be assumed to be an absolute and permanent narrative;
5- In the new map of the United Nations, there are things that are indigestible within the current Taliban: inclusive government, political freedoms in the form of political reforms and positive interaction with outsiders. It is clearly clear that if the Taliban accept these conditions, this group will merge with other trends in political interactions and will have to give up governance. It is in this sense that this group does not give in to these demands and consider accepting it as suicide. This is basically an unreasonable expectation that can only waste time and that's it;
This plan has been implemented in the form of a special diplomatic delicacy and is essentially a reaction against the Asian and European allies. Because the Asian allies (Chinese, Russians and Iranians) have become active in regional interactions and this has caused America concern. To understand this issue, the following reasons should be considered:
1 - The Asian allies always use the anti-Taliban capabilities, which are no longer under the control of America after the defeat and fall of the republic. All the anti-Taliban forces want to establish the Taliban regime, and this idea puts these groups on the same path as the regional powers.
2 - The Europeans are counting on harsher options and more extreme versions to be used against the Taliban, which is a completely American version. Maybe a lot of money has been invested in this matter and there are continuous calls in the field that it is claimed that Europe is trying to have its proxy forces in the field of Afghanistan, apart from America, with a profit-seeking spirit;
3- America is stuck in a dilemma of deciding whether to agree with the region or confront it to the point of collision. Maybe it is not very interesting to imagine the West and the East on the path against each other and on the other path, in company with each other. It is the discussion of interests that turns the chessboard in favor of the actors;
6- This program is designed in such a way that without any mistake and very cautiously, it will create change from within the Taliban and preserve this phenomenon with its new version and become a guarantee for American hegemony. That is, American preventive diplomacy aims to manage the situation and tries to come up with less sensitive solutions in front of its Asian rivals, in the case of Afghanistan;
7- In this United Nations program, all the intelligence, political, security and economic perceptions, data and information that have already been discussed in the Security Council report have been taken into consideration. It is in this sense that the United Nations roadmap is in a relationship with the meetings in Dushanbe, Vienna, Paris, etc., and new efforts are on the way to lay the groundwork for the next steps of the competition and the game in Afghanistan. Meetings to give a platform to the opponents of the Taliban are both a tool to pressure the Taliban and a means to bargain in the field of competition with America's rivals. Tom West's trip, the meetings in Vienna and the boldness of the so-called anti-Taliban sector against the Taliban, the confusion of this group and the acknowledgment of the existence of a danger to their sovereignty, the statements of Omar Dawoodzai, are all connected and indicate a new era.
According to what is happening in the east, it will be a deep strategic transformation. America needs to change the rules of the game to break the deadlock. This change, willy-nilly, requires a change of the nuts and bolts and allows America to be more focused in the direction of securing and acquiring its interests. The joint meetings and reactions to regional actions that are considered the main competitors of America are part of these games so that America does not lag behind its competitors.
The road map for the future of Afghanistan should either create an internal coup for the Taliban, or place elements within this group to make the reform process possible. Against the region and its ruling powers, they have taken a series of actions to counter the American attack and are trying to have reliable allies in the field of Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the anti-Taliban opposition does not have a clear message, nor do they know what they want, nor is there any interest or courage to express it.
There should be a consensual movement between the region and the extra region, especially the Asian powers and America and its allies, leading to the demilitarization of Afghanistan in the security, political and historical equation of Afghanistan. The calculation of the Taliban opponents, on the American options, is moving towards the fall for the umpteenth time. Either the region should completely withdraw from the issue of Afghanistan or become part of a multilateralist approach so that the situation in Afghanistan changes. Both Russia and America are trying to use the cards in the field like the Taliban and their opponents. Tested cards that do not have the ability to think independently.
Therefore, to solve the issue, an independent party with clear thinking and an intellectual alternative to the Taliban should be created. Otherwise, it is difficult to solve the problem. The United Nations roadmap is a continuation of the path and vicious cycle of twenty years of the republic, the rule of the Taliban and being stuck in the mire of complex intelligence games. It cannot solve any problem. If the Taliban government brings reforms, accepts the constitution, integrates the opposition into its regime.
The process of political reforms in Afghanistan should be based on the political and security agreement between the region and the extra region in order to guarantee its political and security stability in the future.
