How are Russia and the US returning to Afghanistan?
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, especially for Sangar
Recently, Amrullah Saleh, the former vice president of Afghanistan and one of the leaders of the resistance front led by Ahmad Massoud gave a detailed interview to the Russian-language newspaper Nazavismaya Gazita, which is a reflection of the fundamental turn in his views towards the West, especially the US. Referring to the mistakes of the past, especially the trust of the Tajiks and the survivors of the first resistance front led by the late Ahmad Shah Massoud, he emphasized the important and influential role of Russia in changing the current situation in Afghanistan, trying to change the nature of the international system and creating a defense barrier against America's hegemonic ambitions have counted and pointed out that the resistance front has a special view of Russia and this view has a significant impact on the strategic relations between the front and Russia in the region.
At the same time, General Sami Sadat, one of the former generals of the Afghan army, along with his presence on the political stage, announced the United Front of Afghanistan, which is headquartered in Virginia, USA, and was invited to the US Foreign Relations Committee and in the inflamed political atmosphere where the competition between the Republican and Democrat parties in the midst of the American elections, talk about the nature of the Taliban and criticize the performance of the Biden administration. This incident and the parallel efforts of America and Russia to find new allies in the field of Afghanistan show the special importance of Afghanistan in the great doctrine of both world powers (Russia and America). The previously proposed views such as Afghanistan no longer has a place in the policies of America and Russia and has lost its importance, are invalidated by these events.
It is an obvious fact that the US provides financial support to the Taliban, and as Mr. Saleh stated in his interview, US$60 million is poured into the coffers of the Taliban regime every week to ensure its survival and maintain its intelligence and political presence. And by unmanned aircraft, it carries out aerial surveillance over the Afghanistan under the control of the Taliban. Despite that, America is trying to have second and third options in the field if the rules of the game change and it cannot keep the Taliban in power for a long time.
The use of military and political fronts, which do not have a presence in the political and military field of Afghanistan without slogans, is one of these tricks. General Sadat and his ilk are good reserves for the future of America's game in the region, especially in Afghanistan. Creating fronts in America and sending political messages from there is just an intelligence trick that is exchanged between great powers along the mysteries of the mysterious language of diplomacy and intelligence relations.
This action of the US has a message for the Russians that the US still has not given up on Afghanistan and can have pieces in the playing field through its human and intelligence investments. While Saleh is present in the resistance front, as one of its founders, and mentions the intention of aligning with Russia and China and the mistake of aligning with America, he sends the message that Russia and China are on one side of the story and America and its allies. On the other side of the issue, they continue to recruit and have the capacities for the future of the game in Afghanistan on the agenda. General Sami Sadat, who is one of the famous generals of the republic, has a special relationship with the Americans and its allies and can be chosen as an option for the next game. While on the other side of the issue is Saleh, who despite years of working and cooperating with the West and especially with the US, now regrets this cooperation and is trying to find new regional allies who can support the Afghan people's resistance against the Taliban which have a special and high potential to play a role in the future of this country. By comparing and simultaneity of this event, the author writes here briefly the options for changing the existing situation and development in the path of Afghanistan which is under the control of Taliban tyranny:
First, it is a good message that Saleh has realized the importance of Russia's role in this game. The very western outlook of the anti-Taliban resistance movements, despite the repeated announcement by the United States that it does not support any military and political movement against the Taliban, has caused the region to become disillusioned and distance itself from these movements. Saleh has been able to identify the current position of Russia and China in the security and political dynamics of Afghanistan and the region, and the constructive role of the Russians in understanding with the Chinese to change the nature of the international system and transform it into a multi-polar order where the United States is no longer the only player in the field. It is not, speak. If this view is a generalized view in the political and war doctrine of the resistance front and is presented as a reflection of its main and major policies towards the interaction with the region, soon, the resistance process will be able to overcome the deadlock in the situation in Afghanistan. break it and enter a new phase of struggle by relying on the strength and ability of the region and even have the geography under its control. Saleh Mozg, as he said, regrets his misplaced trust in America and the West, this time he has decided to enter the game in Afghanistan in alignment with the region and especially the Russians. Saleh must crystallize these views in the front's political and combat performance and use its reflection for the benefit of progress in the fight against the Taliban;
Second - The simultaneous broadcast of the news of Saleh's interview and his desire to cooperate and align with the Russians in the axis of Afghanistan's game and General Sadat's effort to gain the support of the Americans for his own front, shows that both domestic and regional players and the world They look at Afghanistan as a special case and monitor its strategic nature. In his stances, Saleh should try to consider the essential role of Russia, the country's ability to change the mindset of the region against the Taliban, and create ways to interact with the resistance front and coordinate the front's major policies with the political tone and the existing political atmosphere in the region. If the success of such an action is granted to the resistance front, without a doubt, the success in the field of Afghanistan will benefit the anti-Taliban area;
Third - The neglect and indifference of internal factors in the past twenty years to the role of the Russians and the Shanghai security belt in general, which has a significant impact on the security, economic and political situation of Afghanistan, had caused Afghanistan to move away from the security radius of the region stay and enter completely within the security radius of NATO and the US. Now, the new development, the fall of the Republic and the special attention of the Russians to the Afghanistan issue, can cause a great change in this view. If Saleh understands this narrowness, it is a positive development. A development that shows that only the region can solve the problem of Afghanistan in a reliable security circuit and that's it. In order to be present in Afghanistan, the extra region needs the regional permission, which is far from possible, and other regions do not accept the logic of the presence of America and its allies in the geography of Afghanistan. This is a very important factor that leads us to the conclusion that only a strategic alliance with the region can ground and defeat terrorism in Afghanistan, which is supposed to spread to the region and create a security challenge;
Fourth - America, with frustration and confusion and setting up tricks in the meetings in the US Congress, is trying to use the stored capacities that it has from Afghanistan when the republic falls, and not to leave a vacuum in the playing field by the US and its allies would have existed. The coincidence of this interview coincides with the movement of Sami Sadat, the big meeting that is going to be hosted by the United Nations about Afghanistan, shows that the competition of two powers in the field of Afghanistan due to the use of local capacities in Afghanistan and after the choice of the Taliban, It is still on the agenda. Now, both powers, one in choosing options for terrorism and supporting the terrorist regime of the Taliban, and the other in trying to eradicate terrorism, which has become a major challenge in Afghanistan and the region, are facing each other in a game and they are trying to take the initiative early. In compromise with the Iranians, the Russians consider the Taliban an option imposed by the US and do not trust it. But until the selection of a new ally, they use tactical interaction with it, for intelligence elites and to monitor the situation in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the US uses every option to challenge the security of the region in which Russia, Iran and China play an essential role, in order to remain at the base of this game and ground its rivals;
Fifth - The region has decided to prevent the security challenge of Afghanistan from becoming so large that it becomes a means of securing US's interests against Russia, Iran and China. For this purpose, the regional coalition, which has created a form of consensus regarding this issue, has decided to seek help from Afghanistan's internal allies. The anti-Taliban resistance fronts, which are practically on the opposite side of the Taliban regime, can be good allies for Russia. In the same way, the US knows that it will not be able to protect the Taliban against regional reactions for a long time; therefore, it uses more modern options such as army generals and technocrats trained in America to advance the game. This effort of the region against the extra region has led to the heating of the atmosphere of competition and will bring countless domestic players into the field of Afghan politics and war. It is on this basis that Saleh's desire to cooperate with the Russians coincides with the invitation of General Sami Sadat to America. That is, reaction against action, which leads to a long line of internal allies on both sides.
With what has been said, it is clear that the atmosphere of competition and the range of concerns about the existing situation, of which the Taliban are a major part, have made both the US and the Russians at the regional level think of alternative options for the Taliban. The remnants of the republic that are in America and Europe will enter the next phase of the game in favor of America. While the anti-Taliban resistance fronts should join the ranks of the Asian allies to win against the Taliban.
