The weakening of Beijing's influence in Kabul is beneficial to Uyghur jihadists and the United States.
Author: Andrey Serenko, “Nezavisimaya gazeta” staff correspondent
In the photo: Some sources identified the man sitting to the left of Haji Ibrahim Haqqani as Li Jiudong, "the head of China's intelligence agency for Afghanistan." But it is unclear who he is.
China has lost a very important "agent of influence" in Afghanistan. The murder of Haji Khalil ar-Rahman Haqqani in Kabul, which occurred about two weeks ago, threatens to significantly weaken Beijing's position in the Islamic emirate controlled by the Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation). In anticipation of the expected American activation in Afghanistan and the region as a whole, China's loss of some positions in the Afghan game could exacerbate security threats to Beijing.
The Taliban government's Minister of Migration Affairs, Haji Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani, was killed in a suicide attack in Kabul on December 11. Responsibility for the attack was claimed by Wilayat Khorasan (a terrorist organization banned in Russia), the Afghan branch of the Islamic State (IS, a terrorist organization banned in Russia). However, the IS suicide bomber was merely the perpetrator of the murder, who, by the way, remained anonymous: in the media reports of Wilayat Khorasan, the name of the terrorist who killed the uncle of the all-powerful Taliban Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani was not mentioned, contrary to established practice. In the official IS photo, the person who carried out the December 11 attack has his face completely covered, which is also not entirely clear and does not correspond to the jihadist tradition: the suicide bomber has already died anyway, so who should he be afraid of in this case?
All this has given competent Afghan experts from among the senior officers of the special services of the republican regime grounds to assert that most likely "Vilayat Khorasan" either simply carried out someone else's order to kill Khalil ar-Rahman Haqqani, or simply agreed to take on someone else's crime for a certain fee.
What informed Afghan sources from both the Taliban and their opponents are unanimous is why exactly the Taliban government's Minister of Migration was killed. And here the "Chinese trace" is quite clearly visible.
The fact is that Haji Khalil ar-Rahman Haqqani has long and fruitfully collaborated with the intelligence of the Ministry of State Security of the PRC. According to sources familiar with the situation, the subject of their partnership was Uyghur jihadist groups created by people from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) of China and located in the territory of the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Beijing, not without reason, considers Uyghur militants a threat to its security. Therefore, for several years now, Chinese intelligence services have not only collected information about armed Uyghur groups in Afghanistan but also undertaken forceful actions against the most “problematic elements”.
According to noteworthy sources, Haji Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani regularly and well-paidly provided Chinese intelligence services with information about Uyghur jihadists and their family members. To do this, he used the administrative capabilities of his ministry, which, among other things, deals with the personal registration of migrants from other countries in the Taliban emirate, including Uyghurs from the PRC. Thanks to this, Chinese intelligence knew, if not everything, then a great deal about specific figures, political functionaries, and commanders of the “Uyghur jihad”, who did not hide their anti-Chinese sentiments and plans.
Moreover, according to Afghan sources, Haji Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani not only supplied Beijing with information but also carried out sensitive operations for additional fees to eliminate the most notorious and dangerous Uyghur jihadists. In particular, one of these operations took place at the very beginning of November in the suburbs of Kabul, where unknown persons eliminated one of the Uyghur field commanders. Shortly after this, Uyghur mujahideen carried out an act of retaliation in the Khatlon region of Tajikistan, killing and wounding several Chinese citizens working in a gold mine.
According to the source, Khalil al-Rahman Haqqani had recently acquired an odious reputation as a very dangerous Chinese agent of influence, who was specifically working against the Uyghur "mujahideen": "This reputation began to cause reputational damage to his nephew, the head of the Taliban Interior Ministry, Sirajuddin Haqqani, and the entire Taliban leadership, including the "Kandahar group" led by Emir Haibatullah Akhundzada. Ultimately, the greed and excessive dependence of the Taliban's Minister of Migration on his Chinese friends and their fees led to his death."
Considering the large number of Uyghur groups in Afghanistan (according to Taliban representatives, together with their family members, it exceeded 300 thousand people), their aggressiveness, the threat of transition from the control of the Taliban and its allied Al-Qaeda (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) to the banners of ISIS, the elimination of Khalil ar-Rahman Haqqani was inevitable. Moreover, shortly before his death, the deceased began to develop a plan to create a kind of "special camp" on the territory of Afghanistan, where he intended to resettle the most influential and ambitious commanders and political functionaries of the Uyghur jihad with their family members for "filtration". What could have happened to these people in this "concentration camp" can only be guessed at. Afghan sources believe that, for example, they could have been destroyed from the air during an attack by unknown drones.
However, these plans were not destined to come true: an ISIS suicide bomber stopped the vigorous activity of Khalil ar-Rahman Haqqani and deprived Chinese intelligence of a very valuable partner in the leadership of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.
Of course, the weakening of Beijing's position in Afghanistan will be beneficial not only to the Uyghur "mujahideen", but also to the United States: in the new 2025, Washington's activity in the Afghan direction is expected to increase. Considering that American intelligence agencies are showing a noticeable interest in working with Uyghur activists around the world, they may try to establish interaction with them in Afghanistan as well. With all the ensuing consequences for China.
