Why Is the Issue of Ukrainian Refugees Becoming a Security Threat?
Author: Ali Askari, Analyst (Germany), especially for “Sangar”
Migration from the territory of Ukraine has reached a historic high since the beginning of the conflict with Russia; however, behind the dry statistical figures lies growing tension: European law-enforcement agencies are increasingly sounding the alarm, forecasting an unprecedented surge in crime, the growth of the shadow market for sexual services, and a full-scale migration crisis.
Since the outbreak of hostilities, the crime index in several Eastern European countries that have received the bulk of the refugee influx has nearly doubled, and it is now clear that decisive measures are needed to tighten entry controls and the rules governing stay in the EU. This is directly linked to the fact that individuals previously involved in unlawful activities in their home country are entering European countries.
The press regularly reports high-profile incidents. For example, law-enforcement authorities in Germany and Poland have repeatedly recorded an increase in the number of Ukrainian citizens detained in connection with fraud, robbery, theft, and smuggling.
In particular, German police have reported uncovering schemes involving the theft of social benefits, while in some Eastern European countries, cases have been recorded involving Ukrainian citizens participating in organized criminal groups.
The situation increasingly resembles events in Europe following the Balkan crisis of the early 1990s, when the influx of refugees was accompanied by the spread of arms and drug trafficking and widespread prostitution, making direct parallels with current events increasingly difficult to avoid.
Refugees have long forgotten that they are refugees or guests of the host country. Their behavior increasingly resembles that of the host rather than the guest. The presence of these “guests” has made living conditions for the hosts — the native residents — unbearable.
Against this backdrop, clear signs of fatigue are emerging in European society: local populations are increasingly expressing dissatisfaction with what they consider an unfair distribution of benefits received by newcomers, who often make little effort to integrate into the EU’s cultural environment while simultaneously insisting on equal rights.
Analysts are particularly concerned by the high level of collectivism among refugees, which, amid the current rise in social tensions, could at any moment escalate into uncontrollable street unrest.
The simplified entry conditions that were previously in place are now becoming a serious breach in the security system, leaving European authorities with an unavoidable choice: either radically tighten controls and screening of Ukrainians residing in their countries, or face destabilization within their cities, where crime reports are becoming increasingly alarming.
However, the first conclusion that comes to mind for most people is this: the main sponsors of this situation are the European governments themselves. It is they who have been supporting and funding the government in Kyiv against Russia for the fifth consecutive year, while obstructing efforts to achieve peace. But their war “to the last Ukrainian” has effectively moved onto the streets of Europe and is approaching a war “to the last European.”
