The fate of the war between Russia and Ukraine will be decided by the Russian oligarchs and “Westerners” around Putin, and not by Wagner and Ramzan Kadyrov.
Author: Fayaz Bahraman Najimi, an analyst on regional and international issues, and a member of the Sangar Advisory Board.
Zamir Kabulov went to Kabul and met with Mullah Amir Khan Mottaqi, one of the weak and ineffective figures, but close to Russia, of the Taliban. In particular, the Mottaqi family has a monopoly on Taliban oil and gas, and I have written about this in the past.
His trip was supposed to take place in December last year, but for unknown reasons, it was postponed.
A few days before Zamir Kabulov's trip, the head of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, called the Taliban a terrorist group created by the United States.
On the contrary, Zamir Kabulov said in Kabul that Russia does not want to isolate the Taliban, and in his latest statements implicitly considered the forces opposing the Taliban to be American affiliates and stated: "The Americans want to establish relations with the opponents of the Taliban."
Earlier, he said: "Russia is ready to help the Taliban in the construction of the TAPI project." After explaining the events, I will return to this issue at the end.
One point needs to be made clear, namely that there is an old guard of Russian experts who seem to be well-versed in the problems of Afghanistan, whose understanding does not go beyond the books of the Soviet era.
On the other hand, in recent years, the Russian embassy has developed most of its relations with people in Afghanistan, belonging to the number of Pashtuns who survived the Soviet era. The Taliban are also part of the same project. Zamir Kabulov's relationship with the Taliban dates back to the time of the hostage-taking of Russian pilots in Kandahar, which continues to this day (About Kabulov's Afghan adventures in 1996, wait for the material in Sangar).
Kabulov's recent trip to Kabul and his recent statements about the Taliban not only contradict Patrushev's views but are also a sign of the inconsistency between Russian domestic and foreign policy, which I have repeatedly pointed out.
Patrushev represents a hardline faction in the Russian government whose power has recently been gaining momentum, and the explanation for this can be seen around two figures: Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the private military company Wagner, and Ramzan Kadyrov - of course, there are many surnames, but they are unfamiliar to my to the reader. The two were also supporters of General Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine, who became the hope of the nationalists.
To prevent Surovikin's popularity from spreading too much, the Kremlin decided on January 11 to replace him with Valery Gerasimov. The move lifted the spirits of pro-Western forces, Putin's neo-liberal team breathed a sigh of relief, and the largely Westernized Russian Foreign Ministry saw the change in the Kremlin's military policy as the right time for future decorative measures and urgent action, the next day, i.e. January 12, sent Zamir Kabulov to the Taliban.
Kabulov met with Mullah Muttaqi in "jeans" - an American symbol.
Why did Kabulov go to Kabul and what message did he convey from Kabul to Putin's entourage?
The fact is that since the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, about 8 oligarchs in the energy sector have mysteriously died - although their positions inside the Kremlin are still very strong. Despite the war, Russian gas has been going to Western Europe through Ukraine for a long time, and its oil pipeline has not been closed until now, and Russia is paying transit money to Ukraine.
Much of Ukraine's oil and energy trade is secretly in the hands of Russian oligarchs. Russian multibillionaire Roman Abramovich played a direct role in the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kyiv and Chernihiv. The oligarchs surrounding the Kremlin long held back military action against Ukraine's power grid.
Surovikin (in the photo) was appointed in order to use it once and put on his shoulders the responsibility for the retreat from Kherson. But the general was able to change the balance of the war in a short period of time, first of all, to create stability on the fronts, and the interests of Russian capitalists around Putin were also affected by the attack on the infrastructure of Ukraine.
Russian nationalists strongly supported the actions of General Surovikin. The nationalist movement had to be stopped. And so it happened.
On the day that Wagner's forces captured the important city of Soledar and were successful, Putin quickly replaced the military leader and returned his loyal general Valery Gerasimov to command the SMO.
A gloomy atmosphere ensued. In the first hours of Wagner's victory, both Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov, and Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Kanashenkov tried not to confirm the news, waiting for a change in personnel policy.
It goes without saying that the change in the leadership of the war, contrary to the statements of propagandists close to the Kremlin about the protracted operation, carried a clear compromise signal to the United States and the West.
The West has also started sending signals to Russia.
CIA director William Burns made a clandestine trip to Kyiv and upon his return declared that: "There will come a time when it will be difficult for Ukraine to help."
French President Emmanuel Macron is sending signals to Putin, who has not spoken to him in a long time, and in his latest statement he said: “Russia is a big country and cannot be excluded from European security issues.”
And in the latest news, German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz conditioned the shipment of German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine on the shipment of American Abrams tanks. And the US shied away from sending their tanks.
These are signs of the beginning of a movement toward freezing the war in Ukraine.
Leaving aside rhetoric or two-way media propaganda, the Kremlin's insertion of a cog into the wheel of victory is a sign of a change in its policy.
It is not clear whether it is possible to stop the wheel of "war to victory", which is set in motion, and the strengthening of the actions of the force of Wagner and Ramzan Kadyrov. What will be the reaction of the relatives of the victims and the soldiers who return home? It's not clear yet!
With the escalation of wars by mercenaries, it is no coincidence that the US accused the private company Wagner of crimes against humanity. The US's actions are directly related to the actions of the Kremlin!
Now back to what I mentioned at the beginning. The change in the Kremlin's personnel policy set the pro-Western energy oligarchy back in motion and, as mentioned, in the first phase, Zamir Kabulov was sent to Kabul to discuss the frozen gas pipeline project, which many years ago, during the Taliban 1.0, began with the direct support of the United States of America and continued without progress until the end of the Republic.
The announcement of Russia's readiness to participate in the construction of the TAPI project means the creation of a joint economic project with the United States in the region because China has seized the territory of the Northern Amu Darya and is trying to challenge Russia and the United States at various levels from Ukraine to the Central Asian republics. Russian oligarchs are counting the minutes of the end of the war to celebrate the West's "return" to Russia. It should be noted that the Russian Foreign Ministry acts more in the interests of the Russian oligarchy than in the interests of the Russian people because the Russian foreign policy doctrine is not clear. On the other hand, anti-Chinese sentiment is very high in the Russian Foreign Ministry, because most of the diplomats in the last 30 years of post-Soviet Russia were directly pro-Western. For this reason, the Russian Foreign Ministry did not have a specific plan for cooperation with China. In this case, there are dozens of reasons that we will leave for another time.
In a word:
Taking this opportunity, Gazprom wanted to show off its achievement to Putin by hastily sending Zamir Kabulov to Kabul.
But what Kabulov said about the contact of the Americans with the Taliban opposition, this issue was not hidden, and as the Russians themselves say, this is not "inventing the wheel."
Anthony Blinken, US Secretary of State, recently announced that they have pulled out of Afghanistan to reduce their vulnerability and focus on Ukraine.
I am sure that Kabulov knows perfectly well that the Americans in their foreign policy never invest in only one force in any country. The US foreign policy is such that in all countries of the world they are establishing relations not only with the ruling forces but also with the opposition, civil society, and other social strata - which the Russian Foreign Ministry does not remember and is constantly criticized by experts from outside the system.
There seems to be a kind of fragmentation and competition going on behind the closed doors of the Russian center of political power, and it is possible that it will bring many victims.
