What is our understanding of the situation on the Afghan playing field?
Author: Abdunaser Nurzad, analyst
The events of recent weeks lead us to the conclusion that under the skin of events things are happening, that cannot but be influenced by the situation in Afghanistan. If you add these events like beads, they will acquire a logical sequence in such a way that each has an organic connection with the other (one before and one after). The hallmark of good analysis is that you connect previous and subsequent events, find clues and connections, and analyze and draw conclusions from the current situation in their light. If you could do such a thing, you will definitely be able to make the most cost-effective analysis and assessment of the situation.
The events in Afghanistan have a historical background. From the Great Game, the Cold War, and the post-Cold War period to the events of 2021, they all come together at one point. This point, in fact, clarifies the main aspect and general nature of the position and raises next to it the question, what is the root of the crisis in Afghanistan and why is this country always chosen as the center of big games of big and regional powers? The answer found so far is that the geography of Afghanistan, its connection to the geopolitics of energy, proximity to rival powers of the West, its heterogeneous ethnic composition, lack of political knowledge, and the traditional nature of this society, have made it a good field for competition between the powers. We must take this question into account in every analysis.
Our geographical position is the main source of the crisis. But since we have not been able to use the tools and resources of this geography and link it to politics, and we have not been able to use it through the knowledge, acquisition, exploitation, and preservation of geographic resources of power in transnational, national, regional and global terms, we have not been able to take appropriate measures and achieve positive interaction to achieve effective interaction and cooperation, we have always been failures. In this sense, we have experienced many failures and transformations in the course of history. Recent events and the fall of Afghanistan into the hands of international terrorism are a sign of such weakness.
Now that the Taliban and their terrorists have taken over Afghanistan, what are their plans? The plan to bring Talibani terrorism to power, create chaos and disrupt regional security order is the main plan. The Taliban are pursuing plans outside the geography of Afghanistan. The reactivation of the US in Afghanistan shows that the Taliban could not advance this project alone, and the United States inevitably returned to the battlefield.
This statement is based on events that have taken place over the past few weeks. For example, the preparation of the US embassy and its cleansing by the Aga Khan Institute shows that the US, through its diplomatic cover, wants to effectively control the political processes and security issues in Afghanistan again. To this end, to implement this plan, the Americans again arrived in Kabul under the cover of USAID in order to properly manage this process.
Through this plan, the US brought people in under the guise of USAID employees. They are mostly intelligence officers who are trying to manage the tense situation in Kabul so that everything goes according to plan. The Taliban have struck at their roots with a decree banning the rights of girls and women to work and study. The move provoked a widespread international backlash, followed by a strong reaction from the acting US ambassador and UNAMA deputy representative in Kabul, which sharply escalated the situation. At the same time, thanks to experienced US representatives, there are political movements to organize a conference like the Bonn Conference, called the “Second Bonn Conference”, which should offer a cover story for the current scandal.
The countries of the region, especially China and Russia, began to react painfully to the events in Afghanistan, especially after the attacks on their embassies and citizens. Lavrov's position that Washington is now seriously engaged in restoring its military presence in Afghanistan is one example of this assertion. The Chinese also reacted and reduced their presence in Kabul. It looks like the two major powers in the region are reacting to US actions in Afghanistan.
This coincides with the creation of splits and discords among the Taliban that could blow up at any moment. The Taliban are extremely confused and have turned large cities into military strongholds, sending their forces there. In this regard, the patrolling of American drones in the airspace of Kabul, Kandahar, and other provinces of Afghanistan testify to the abnormality of the situation. The Americans are again actively present in the field of Afghanistan, and this issue has worried the countries neighboring Afghanistan.
The countries of the region, including China, Russia, the countries of Central Asia, India, and Iran, taking a common position, and are trying to have a coordinated response to the situation in Afghanistan. For this reason, new trends are being activated on the Afghan field to narrow the field of action for the Taliban and their supporters. This reaction is basically a belated action that alerted the region to the growing threat of terrorism and the implementation of dangerous programs in the region.
Thus, the activation of domestic players in areas outside the north, west, and east shows that the Taliban must be placed under a strategic siege. A siege was to be carried out by proxy forces and anti-Taliban groups. It was for this reason that Ismailkhan created a zone of resistance in the western part and broke the silence. This is the first step taken by Iran in close cooperation with Russia and China. Areas of resistance in Andarab and Panjshir, Badakhshan, Takhar, and Kapisa are another demonstrated step of the allies. In areas of Kandahar, the Azadagan Front also operates against the Taliban.
In the trans-Afghan analysis of the current situation, we find powerful players who are planning at the same time as these events and are strategically responding to the development of the situation. These players are divided into groups of like-minded people and allies in Afghanistan, and their complementary element is sometimes part of this process. The group of like-minded people includes China, Russia, India, Iran, and the countries of Central Asia. The group of allies includes Pakistan, the US, the UK, and the EU, which are in constant conflict with China and Russia.
Complementary elements include Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, and sometimes Indonesia, which are sometimes included in the game. The game for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey has the same feature as the game with the ISIS map in Afghanistan. However, as long as Pakistan can continue its destructive role in Afghanistan, there is no need to involve these countries in this game.
However, the situation on the front of like-minded countries is changing. China continues to rely on the cooperation of the Taliban in the fight against and suppression of Uyghur militants. Something that took the Chinese by surprise several times. But by all appearances, the Chinese are frustrated with the current situation and are trying to engage with newer domestic allies. The Russians are rapidly changing their position toward the Taliban. Tajikistan is playing an effective role in this change of position. Emomali Rahmon, the President of Tajikistan, thanks to constant efforts, was able to change the opinion of Vladimir Putin about the situation in Afghanistan, which is under the rule of the Taliban. Iran is also not satisfied with the current situation, and sometimes with conflicting reactions. It seems that he is moving from the Taliban to the forces opposing them. Until now, India has taken a consistent position on post-American Afghanistan and the presence of the Taliban in it and has not shown many reactions.
This situation is rapidly changing. Now, with the blows to Russian and Chinese interests, India is also concerned about the current situation in Afghanistan. On the other hand, the close cooperation of the Taliban with the Pakistani Taliban, especially Lashkar-e-Taiba and Lashkar-e-Jangavi, which are among the most extremist anti-Indian groups, and India is well aware that in Afghanistan during the Taliban rule, suitable bases were considered for these groups. Therefore, India will inevitably change its position and with other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will coordinate and work closely against the wave of terrorism in the region, for the support and logistics of which the Taliban are responsible, and Pakistan plays a direct role in this.
On the other hand, the United States, Britain, the European Union, Pakistan, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are promoting the same agenda. Equipping and financing terrorism that is going to engulf the entire region. The most suitable option and the most economical force for this would be the Taliban. In addition, untouched foreign terrorist forces, which include twenty-one groups, are being trained for more strategic purposes. On the other hand, the activation of the ISIS toy, which consists of members of the Taliban, and foreign terrorist groups controlled by the Taliban, could make the problem of Afghanistan very serious. ISIS, along with internal forces on the Afghan playing field, is turning into a toy that is gaining strength very quickly. A ready force, trained, with experience in war and conducting terrorist operations, a highly ideological and radical religious that even challenges the rule of the Taliban. Recruitment to this group will be easy from among the Taliban.
Until ISIS is ready to take over a large area, the Haqqani network, in close cooperation with the ISI, will have a plan on how to support it so that it enters the game and acts as a patron and moderator of terrorist operations. This work will move in three sides and in three directions with the remaining divisions between the factions of the Taliban, such as the Haqqani network, the Kandahar group led by Mullah Yaqub and Mullah Baradar, and the Haibatullah group. All three sides of the Taliban are in close contact with the three countries of the region and the world and are realizing their predetermined goals. The Haqqani network fulfills the plan of England, Pakistan, and a bit of Saudi Arabia.
The Kandahar group is trying to marginalize Mullah Haibatullah's group and the Haqqani network by sharing the US agenda. This group is implementing moderate plans with the Americans. The Haibatullah group, which directly controls the government, is the main part of power in the Taliban regime. Although Mullah Haibatullah is still a legal entity and his true identity is unknown, he is generally considered the mainstay of power in the Taliban regime. This side is in contact with everyone but does not support one side, except for its main patrons. Given the current situation, the rise of ISIS as a fourth party could be a warning for the future of Afghanistan and the region.
Analysis of ISIS Power in Afghanistan: Until now, ISIS has been presented as an artificial and imaginary force, almost in the form of a verbal invention. It has already been mentioned that ISIS originated within the Taliban and was intended for more strategic purposes. But its power is increasing significantly every day. Numerous attacks on foreign embassies and facilities in Afghanistan, and the possibility of recruiting foreigners, mainly from Central Asia, the Uyghurs of China, show that foreign forces come out with greater force against the Taliban. Of course, according to the available information, the Haqqani network will be responsible for its leadership cores in the initial stages. ISIS' target in Afghanistan is the northern regions, where it still has recruiting opportunities. Most of the Taliban who joined ISIS are Uzbeks and Tajiks. For this reason, there are people from the Islamic groups of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and the Uighurs of China, as well as from the South Asian region - Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan.
Considering the current situation, ISIS has taken steps and is gradually becoming a force against the Taliban. This group is currently organizing its structures and networks, which may become a strategic challenge to the Taliban in the medium term. Why? Because the Taliban, with its intellectually heterogeneous structure, ethnically homogeneous, controlled by Pakistan, and, finally, most importantly, their ideology unique to Afghanistan, cannot realize its goals outside of Afghanistan. At the same time, like other movements, ISIS is gaining strength and has a high operational capacity. ISIS performs better than the Taliban in terms of structure, financial resources, leadership, and organization. This group has greater destructive power and, in the form of small nuclei, can have a more strategic and operational character.
Conclusion:
The first scenario is that the US wants to directly lead this program with its presence. For this reason, they have created scenarios of their presence in collusion with a certain group of Taliban. This plan will be possible in reconnaissance form by being present in the Afghan field. The Kandahar group, which has close relations with the US, is trying to challenge other Taliban groups such as the Haqqani network and the Haibatullah group. This plan has been partially implemented, and its results will be known in the near future. This plan will be implemented in the form of an epochal coup in the Taliban group under the name of an inclusive government and the marginalization of other radical Pakistani and Arab splinter groups.
Second scenario: ISIS becomes a force and challenges the Taliban by conquering more territory. At this stage, along with the US, countries neighboring Afghanistan are activated, and more proxies that are present in the field come into play. Perhaps the ISIS presence in northern Afghanistan is greater and the Taliban from the north will face more security and political problems, given the high level of discontent. At the same time, there is a possibility that other foreign terrorist groups that were allied with the Taliban will join ISIS, a factor that will make the battlefield more heated.
The third scenario: Taliban resistance fronts, with the help of neighboring countries, except Pakistan, enter the battlefield and find more opportunities to resist the Taliban. The conquest of the northern geography by resistance fronts coincides with the rise of ISIS in these areas. Iran, Russia, China, and to some extent India must provide financial and logistical support to the Taliban resistance in order to maintain their security interests. The north will be the site of a game of fire between the Taliban, ISIS, and the resistance fronts. All three sides have opportunities and challenges on the field, but resistance fronts have far more chances and opportunities than others.
