Who will drive the "killing machine" called the Taliban?
Author: Rustam Rushangar, analyst
The other day, Russian Special Representative for Afghanistan Zamir Kablov announced the holding of regional meetings on Afghanistan in the first quarter of 2023. According to him, these meetings will be held within the framework of the Moscow format. He also talked about China's efforts in this area and added that our Chinese friends are also considering holding meetings to solve the problems of Afghanistan.
The first question arises: will these meetings be held with the agenda and results already defined by Moscow and Beijing, or will they be meetings for constructive and real discussions between the internal political and military currents of Afghanistan? In the first case, the result is unlikely, and if there is a result, it is not sustainable. In the latter case, the meetings may not produce results any time soon, but they may chart a clear path for the future.
The second question is what do the countries of the region, especially Russia and China, think about Afghanistan? This question can be asked in another way: what factors did Russia and China single out in the war and instability in Afghanistan? Or, in other words, are Russia and China correct and accurate in their diagnosis of the war and crisis? At the same time, the question is raised, what solution do these two powerful countries of the region offer to resolve the Afghan crisis? Is the solution they propose based on an understanding of the objective realities of Afghanistan and a correct and accurate diagnosis of the war factors, or is it a self-made option based on their own short and long-term interests?
Other questions: with what motivation will the meetings desired by Kabulov take place? Are these meetings a reaction to the latest efforts by the US and UK, who are discussing how to return to Afghanistan again (not necessarily a military presence)? Or is it that China and Russia, as two powerful and responsible countries, really want to solve the problems of their region and have a broad vision of peace and stability in Afghanistan?
But what is the main solution to the Afghan crisis? This question cannot be answered without addressing the root and internal causes of wars and conflicts. Undoubtedly, as a result of the fifty years of war and foreign intervention, the foreign factor is both an important and decisive factor in the settlement of the Afghan war.
But the main problem is inside. The main problem and cause of the wars in Afghanistan is ethnic, the totalitarianism of the Pashtunists, who want to place a multinational and multicultural country in their system of tribal and primitive language and culture based on a mental plan and a false history. This is the root of the problem. Any decision that ignores this reason will not be real, honest, and sustainable.
One of the reasons for the failure of the West in Afghanistan was precisely this fact. Contrary to the claims and imagination of many who say that the mistake of the Americans over the past twenty years was to ignore the Taliban, the reality is that the mistake of the Americans was to ignore the demands and basic rights of non-Pashtun ethnic groups. They allowed Karzai and Ghani to realize their fascist Pashtun plans.
By overthrowing the Taliban apartheid regime in 2001, the Americans erased the face of the problem but ignored its root. They again handed over the reins of power to the fascist Pashtunists in order to marginalize non-Pashtun ethnic groups with the help of US dollars and restore the mono-ethnic structure that is the root of the crisis and conflict. In this regard, they (Karzai and Ghani) prevented the suppression and destruction of the Taliban and finally transferred power to this terrorist group.
Now, many countries in the region mistakenly think that with the return of the Taliban to power, the main problems of Afghanistan, which were apparently caused by the neglect of the Pashtuns, have been solved, and that they can be solved with a few diplomatic meetings, where a strong country sits at the head of the meeting and with its paternal advice to both sides, the problem will be solved.
As for Russia, it is said that the Russian government has at least two different views on Afghanistan. A well-known representative of the first point of view is the same Kabulov, who is rather a figure inclined towards the Taliban. Proponents of this view in Russia are trying to whitewash the black track record of the Taliban and have always tried to present this terrorist and the criminal group as an anti-occupation liberation movement and pressure the ruling circles in Moscow to focus on official recognition of the Taliban. They either do not know the objective realities of Afghanistan or deliberately turn a blind eye to them in order to advance their party and organizational goals within the macrostructure of Russian power.
But at the same time, it is said that another group of high-ranking members of the Russian government (mainly the military and special services) have a different point of view. They do not trust the Taliban and consider this group a product of the United States and England, which is designed to deceive their rivals in the region under the guise of being a liberator of the country. They feel closer to the resistance and support the demand for resistance in defense of Afghanistan's core values, which prescribes a real structure of people's participation or power sharing in another structure.
However, it seems that Russia and China, in line with the emerging new coalition in the region, which is more in conflict with the Western coalition on the axis of support for Ukraine, are taking measures to counter American influence, so the desired meetings of Kabulov will continue in the same direction in the future. It is possible that the plan of the Kabulov group is that in exchange for "the formation of a regional consensus on the recognition of the Taliban", the Taliban will break off their relations with the United States and create a so-called. defensive barrier against the Western invasion of Afghanistan. They may also ask the Taliban to fight ISIL and the rest of the terrorist groups.
Another concession that the Kabul group may have considered for the Taliban is that, on the one hand, Russia will not support the Resistance Front led by Ahmad Massoud, while at the same time providing a certain amount of money and materials necessary for the survival of the power of this group. This plan is actually very similar to Khalilzad's peace plan, which led to the signing of the Doha Accord. In fact, Russia wants the Taliban to terminate the Doha agreement and sign an agreement with Moscow. How reasonable this plan is is a question to which there is no complex answer. This is a plan that ignores the realities of Afghanistan. As long as these realities are ignored by the countries of the region, no solution will be an option.
China looks at Afghanistan more from an economic point of view. The country is eyeing Afghanistan's untapped mines and looking forward to security stability to kick-start China's mining engine in Afghanistan. Even if the movement of this engine means that both sides of the Taliban swords will cut people's heads!
The point is that no plan will be compatible with Afghanistan as long as he sees the Taliban as a valid political group for the future of the system in Afghanistan. The only solution is to remove the Taliban from power and create a popular and joint structure. As long as the Taliban are in power, they will not succumb to such a structure. The reason for this is that the main engine of the movement called the Taliban is fueled by a fascist Pashtun point of view. This view is so mixed with the insanity that it has even led power-mad Ashraf Ghani to curb his personal ambition and desire for power and hand it over to the killing machine called the Taliban.
It is true that the anti-Taliban Resistance Front is now in a weak position, but the motives and factors of war against the imposed and oppressive ethnic order in Afghanistan are very strong and will increase over time. Then any plan imposed from outside is doomed to failure, and the cycle of war and crisis in Afghanistan and the region will continue.
