How Does Russia Build Scenarios Based on a Suspicious Security Narrative?
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, Security and Geopolitics Researcher, Special for "Sangar"
Original article: چهره خطرناک بازی روسیه در افغانستان
Andrey Belousov, Russia’s Minister of Defense, at the meeting of defense ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states, warned that the security threat from Afghanistan persists, and the process of transferring radical militants from Syria to Afghanistan continues. Nevertheless, Russia itself has not acted transparently or sincerely regarding these threats.
Moscow maintains political ties with the Taliban movement, has received the Taliban’s ambassador in Moscow, removed the Taliban from the list of terrorist organizations, and at the same time, the Russian embassy in Kabul remains one of the most active foreign diplomatic missions in Afghanistan. The key question arises: which narrative should be taken seriously — Russia’s warnings about terrorist threats in Afghanistan, or its full political alignment with the Taliban?
Instrumentalization of Security Threats
A deeper analysis of these statements shows that Russia regards the threats from Afghanistan not simply as a danger, but as a lever to advance its geopolitical interests in Central Asia. Belousov’s mention of transferring militants from Syria to Afghanistan resembles a targeted security scenario more than an impartial intelligence report.
Moscow aims to emphasize terrorist threats to create in Central Asian countries a psychological perception of a “constant threat from the south,” thereby increasing their security dependence on Russia. This is effectively an attempt to revive the Soviet security model, where decision-making is centralized in Moscow.
Countering Geopolitical Rival Influences
Russia faces pressure on three geopolitical fronts in its “backyard”:
The first front: NATO’s expansion through Eastern Europe and the Ukraine crisis, against which Russia seeks to break Western encirclement.
The second front: China’s economic and infrastructural penetration into Central Asia, which worries Moscow as economic influence may eventually lead to political and security influence.
The third front: Turkey’s growing role as a new player in Central Asia and the Caucasus, shaping its own sphere of influence parallel to Russia’s through cultural and linguistic ties with Turkic peoples.
In these circumstances, Russia uses the Afghan threat as a geopolitical balancing tool.
Reality of the Threat: Exaggeration or Justification?
There is no doubt that after the Taliban took power, Afghanistan became a safe haven for multinational terrorist groups. However, field data shows that over the past four years, these groups have had no significant operational potential on the borders of Central Asia or the Caucasus. Therefore, Russia’s rhetoric about escalating threats is more likely a justification for expanding its influence and imposing a Moscow-favorable security model on regional countries.
Russia exploits this “threat regime” in two ways:
Persuading regional governments to adopt Russian security architectures under the banner of “preventive cooperation.”
Creating psychological and political distractions among local leaders to prevent their rapprochement with China, Turkey, or NATO.
Through this scenario, Russia seeks to convince Central Asian countries that the only truly reliable security system is possible under Moscow’s leadership, and only then can such threats be effectively countered.
Deal with the Taliban: A Dual and Dangerous Game
While the Taliban themselves are the main platform for the spread of radical groups in Afghanistan, Russia uses the terrorism threat to justify its regional role, while simultaneously cooperating with the Taliban on diplomatic and even security levels.
This duality can be described as:
“The Taliban are both a threat and a tool. They should be feared, but also used.”
Russia does not aim to eliminate the threat but to control and manage it, using it as leverage in dealings with rivals and to protect its own interests.
Strategic Conclusion
Russia is playing a complex, multi-layered intelligence and information game around Afghanistan. Whether the “transfer of militants from the Middle East” is real or fabricated, it serves as a pretext to strengthen Moscow’s position in competition with China, Turkey, and NATO.
If the threat is real, it indicates a complex, organized network, possibly with state involvement. If fabricated, it is a tool to justify military presence, political influence, and covert control.
In any case, Russia benefits.
And this is the dangerous face of Russia’s new security strategy — a strategy that affects not only Afghanistan’s fate but also the balance of power in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and even global geopolitics.
