This means that the cloud over the Taliban is getting darker every day.
Author: Ahmad Saidi, Afghanistan and regional analyst (Germany), especially for "Sangar"
The Taliban in power and others who are not fully aware of the situation in the region and on the periphery, voluntarily or involuntarily, without taking into account the existing realities, claim that the terrorist group ISIS-Khorasan is suppressed and is not a force that could challenge the Taliban government or the region.
I am not in the habit of distorting facts or lying, but I know and believe that ISIS-K in Afghanistan is a serious challenge to the Taliban government, the countries of the region, and beyond.
What I do know is that ISIS-K is a branch of the Islamic State group that operates in Afghanistan and the Khorasan region (including parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia). The group has been identified as one of the biggest security threats in the region, especially after the fall of the Afghan government in 2021 and the takeover of Kabul by the Taliban.
Current Threats from ISIS-K:
1 - Terrorist Attacks: ISIS-K has carried out widespread attacks in Afghanistan in recent years, especially after the Taliban came to power. These attacks include bombings, shootings, and suicide attacks in public places, schools, mosques, etc.
2 - Targeting Minorities: One of the most prominent features of ISIS-K is its targeting of religious minorities, especially the Hazara Shias in Afghanistan. These attacks are aimed at creating fear and exacerbating religious divisions.
3 - Competition with the Taliban: Despite the Taliban's control over Afghanistan, ISIS-K remains a serious rival to the Taliban. The group has repeatedly tried to show its strength against the Taliban and expand its influence in Afghanistan.
Future Risks:
a) Growing Influence and Recruitment: Given the discontent within the Taliban and the expulsion of some Taliban members, a large number of them have joined ISIS-K. There are also reports that other disgruntled groups have also joined ISIS-K, which has helped increase the group’s military strength and capabilities.
b) Cross-Border Attacks: ISIS-K may also pose a serious threat to Afghanistan’s neighbors. The group can carry out terrorist attacks outside of Afghanistan, which could threaten regional and trans-regional stability.
e) Creating Political Instability: If ISIS-K continues to carry out terrorist attacks and grow in influence, there is a possibility of creating further instability in Afghanistan and even causing a relapse of local government or a new civil war, something that has not been considered and discussed so far.
Overall, ISIS-K remains one of the biggest security threats to Afghanistan and the region, and its actions and strategies could have a profound impact on the future of the region and trans-region.
The recent attacks by ISIS and the claim of responsibility for the bombing of the Taliban Attorney General's Office and the killing of more than 30 victims, as well as the execution of 15 Hazaras from Doikundi province, have shown that ISIS-Khorasan has not only not weakened, but has become stronger. This ISIS-Khorasan can challenge the Taliban in the heart of Kabul and sacrifice innocent people.
Therefore, the Taliban, the international community, the region, and the transregion must realize that ISIS is getting out of control every day.
And no country or force, including the Taliban, can say that we control ISIS or that ISIS is no longer capable of attacking.
