No leader can easily save Pakistan's intelligence agency.

Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, especially for Sangar

This is the third change of the head of Pakistan's military intelligence agency since the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan and handed over power from the republic to the group, which Pakistan considered a strategic victory for itself.

General Faiz Hamid, the former head of the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan), was the first foreign official to visit Kabul after the collapse of the US-backed republic, to drink tea, celebrate the victory, and advise the Taliban's invisible leader on how to share power among its members. Faiz Hamid's role in leading, advising, and conducting the Taliban's massive military operations against the last strongholds of resistance in northern Afghanistan showed that Pakistan is ready to hammer the final nail in the coffin of factors that could lead to the failure of its strategy.

However, the flow of events has shown that the Pakistan military is far from fully achieving this strategic victory, and the presence of powerful players such as Russia, Iran, China, Turkey, Arab countries, the US, Europe, and India has prevented the ISI from achieving such ambitions. Perhaps times have changed and circumstances are different.

The Pakistan Army has announced that General Asim Malik will replace General Nadeem Anjum on September 30. General Malik is reportedly the first ISI chief to have a PhD and has received military training in the US and UK. He commanded Pakistan Army units in two key areas - Waziristan and Balochistan. He is one of the generals whose father was also an army general.

After the Taliban was accused of supporting the Pakistani Taliban and creating a platform to increase attacks on Pakistan, the volume of attacks by the Balochistan Liberation Army has increased and the level of instability has increased to an unprecedented level, which has obviously clouded the relations between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan. The increase in attacks on Pakistan, mainly by Islamic extremist groups like the Pakistani Taliban and Baloch, has led to accusations from Pakistan regarding India’s role in these incidents.

Now, General Malik has problems that he must urgently address as they pose a threat to Pakistan’s national security. Given the economic, political, and security constraints and the large number of groups that threaten Pakistan's security, it seems difficult to change the current situation in Pakistan by changing the leadership.

Replacing General Anjum with Malek is just one of the tactics used to improve leadership. However, the high level of potential security threats from a large number of Pakistani Taliban, Balochistan Liberation Army, and ISIS-K militants in the region adds to the challenges facing the army leadership and intelligence unit. More than 70,000 armed militants are reported to be involved in attacks on the Pakistani army.

It should be noted that the Pakistani military has been criticized for widespread corruption among its officials, the suppression of government critics, the failure to contain real security threats and long-time rival India, and the inability to press the Taliban in Afghanistan and maintain a monopoly on its control. The Afghan Taliban, which is supposed to operate under instructions from Islamabad, is going through a strategically bad season. In addition, we see increased attacks from Islamic extremist groups, the Balochistan Liberation Army, and the stronghold of Daesh-e-Khorasan.

A powerful organization whose primary mission is to gather information from abroad, especially from India, Afghanistan, and other neighboring countries and the world, is facing a new security dilemma. The ISI, the external intelligence wing of the Pakistani armed forces, is tasked with gathering strategic information on the political, military, and economic activities of potential enemies. However, its failure to fulfill these tasks seems to have led to three leadership changes in the powerful military organization in three years.

Now, the military, given the turbulent military and political situation in the country, the deepening relations between India and the Taliban, the active presence of China, Russia, and Iran in Afghanistan, the role of the US adviser to the Taliban, the complete failure of the country's strategic depth in Afghanistan, India's strategic cooperation with the US, which has led to India replacing Pakistan and is considered a strategic partner of the US, the role of economic and political crises, which has also entailed political and security implications, is trying to increase the role of the organization in the events in the region, especially in Afghanistan.

General Malik may be able to make some changes in the leadership of the organization, make possible reforms that will reduce the risk of the organization's complete failure, enter a new phase of negotiations and consultations with the US, try to enter into a regional coalition that includes Russia, China, and Iran. However, it is difficult for him to regain the ISI leadership role that he had during the US presence. Because the situation in the world, the region, and the new security dynamics in the region that see Pakistan as part of the American plans make it difficult.

ISI does not have a powerful patron in the region like the US, which could consider Pakistan's interests as its own, and the next political and military engagement would be in favor of Pakistan, which would receive billions of dollars in aid from the US. Moreover, the new conditions in the region with the presence of powerful players like Russia, China, and Iran also do not make this goal possible.

The conditions of the Cold War, in which Pakistan was able to make the most of a cash cow like the jihad in Afghanistan, have changed the nature and shape of the New Great Game. There are powerful and influential regional and supra-regional players in this New Great Game, and there is no need to ask Pakistan for help, and the playing field and geography of the game do not provide Pakistan with a stake in this game.

In any case, General Malik faces several challenges, including potential political and real security threats and serious risks to Pakistan’s national security. He also assumes responsibility for an organization that no longer has the prestige of the past and is suspected of creating conditions for the implementation of a destabilizing strategy in the region. Perhaps historically, the ISI is going through a period of recovery and decline in its security involvement that no leader can easily save.


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