How long will the Taliban remain Tehran's "trusted partner"?
Author: Ahmad Saeedi, Afghanistan and regional affairs analyst (Switzerland), especially for "Sangar"
Abbas Stanikzai, political deputy of the Taliban Foreign Ministry, considered Iran a trusted partner of the Taliban and emphasized friendly relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Now I intend to present an analysis of the future of Iran-Taliban relations and see where they will lead.
The Taliban's relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are a complex and multifaceted issue influenced by historical, political, economic, and security factors. These relations were formed at a time when Afghanistan was under Taliban rule and Iran, as a neighboring country with interests in the region, is keen to maintain stability and security on its borders and protect its national interests. Here we analyze the relations between the Taliban and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their implications for Iran and other countries in the region.
Factors Shaping Relations Between the Taliban and the Islamic Republic of Iran:
One of the important reasons for the close relations between the Taliban and the Islamic Republic of Iran is the common concern over security threats. As an Islamist group, the Taliban is seen as a potential ally of Iran in the fight against other extremist groups such as ISIS (which is seen as a major threat from Iran's perspective). Iran, which has established relations with various groups in Afghanistan in the past, is currently seeking to establish stability on its eastern borders to prevent the influence of extremist groups.
Economic Advantages:
Given the economic sanctions and special economic conditions, the Islamic Republic of Iran seeks to expand trade relations with neighboring countries. Afghanistan is an important partner, especially in the import of goods, raw materials, and food products. On the other hand, Iran can take advantage of Afghanistan's economic opportunities, including infrastructure and agricultural projects.
Religious Relations and Ideology:
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Taliban have major religious differences: Iran is a Shia Islamic republic, and the Taliban mainly practices the Sunni Hanafi religion. However, as a regional power, the Islamic Republic of Iran may adjust its relations with the Taliban due to its geopolitical and security interests. The Islamic Republic of Iran may pressure the Taliban to provide more rights to the Hazara Shia minority in Afghanistan and not target them.
Other Countries' Objections to Iran-Taliban Relations:
Western governments, especially the United States of America, are opposed to any close ties with the Taliban. It is said that after regaining control of Afghanistan, the Taliban has become a group opposed to Western countries, and relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Taliban may be seen as a threat to Western security. From the West's perspective, Iran is increasing its presence in Afghanistan and on the borders of Central Asia, which will threaten the interests of the United States and its allies in the region.
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States:
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, especially during the early days of the Taliban in the 1990s, provided financial and political support to the group. Still, their relationship with the Taliban has changed due to religious (Shiite-Sunni) differences and new developments in the region. On the one hand, Iran supports the Taliban, while Arab countries (including the Saudis) seek to counter Iranian influence in Afghanistan. This situation could lead to further tensions in the region.
Pakistan:
Pakistan, as the Taliban's main ally in South Asia, may not be in the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran-Taliban relations at first. While Pakistan seeks close relations with Iran, it is also interested in maintaining its influence over the Taliban and preventing Iranian influence from growing in Afghanistan. This situation may cause competition between the two large neighbors (Pakistan and Iran) in Afghanistan.
Impact of the Relationship between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Taliban:
Iran's relations with the Taliban may help strengthen Iran's geopolitical position in the region. Since Afghanistan is known as the center of the crisis in South and Central Asia, Iran can use this relationship to protect its economic, security, and political interests. This allows Iran to play a stronger role in regional equations in front of Western and Arab countries.
Impact on the Relationships of the Islamic Republic of Iran with Other Countries:
Iran's close relations with the Taliban may increase tensions with some neighboring countries and major powers, including the United States of America and the European Union. This situation may harm Iran's diplomatic plans and prospects for restoring relations with the West. In addition, internal tensions in Afghanistan are likely to spill over into Iran's security.
Human Crises and Negative Implications for the Islamic Republic of Iran:
Afghanistan is currently facing many humanitarian crises. As a country hosting millions of Afghan refugees, Iran may face new waves of Afghan refugees and immigration. This may lead to a social and economic crisis in Iran and put pressure on the country's human and economic resources.
Risk of Extremism and Instability:
The rise of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan may contribute to the spread of extremism in the region, especially if the situation in Afghanistan becomes more unstable. This may pose serious security challenges to the Islamic Republic of Iran and affect the security of its eastern borders.
Conclusion
The relationship between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Taliban has complex dimensions that stem from Iran's security, economic, and political interests, but at the same time, these relations may lead to an escalation of tensions at the regional and international levels. Iran must maintain a balance between protecting its interests in Afghanistan and preventing the escalation of the humanitarian and security crisis. At the same time, other countries in the region and the world are also trying to limit Iran's influence in Afghanistan and control its relations with the Taliban.
The closer the Taliban gets to Iran, the more Western countries will punish the Taliban and their recognition will be delayed.
