What does the Taliban’s suspicious move to move American military equipment to Bagram airport mean?
By Abdool Naser Noorzad, Security and Geopolitical Researcher, especially for Sangar
The movement of American equipment to Bagram airport and the potential for changing the rules of the security game in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan have created an emergency. This time, the Taliban must either pass the utility test or the second plan to replace this group with ISIS-Khorasan will be implemented.
It seems that the leading powers in the region and beyond will not avoid playing on the Afghan field. The Taliban, various terrorist groups, sleeper militant and terrorist cells that have not yet been brought to the scene, are all being taken into account when forming the fronts of these powers.
With the advent of Donald Trump, the US has begun to pay more attention to Afghanistan. From the US delegation's visit to the so-called release of American hostages, from Trump's harsh and threatening statements about returning US weapons to Afghanistan to Vice President Trump's statement that the Taliban is the worst terrorist group, this is all the news in the last month.
With the US delegation's visit to Kabul, the Taliban have tidied up the city they had adorned with seemingly anti-American slogans since the fall of the US-backed republic, and paved the way for a public agreement between the Taliban and the US. The Taliban's actions have clearly shown that the group is willing to sacrifice its extremist image at any cost to ensure its group interests, and to abandon its deceptive Islamic slogans and defense of Islam.
Now, according to our sources, “in the last few days, on orders from the Taliban leadership, all US-made military aircraft, except four Russian helicopters that were in the hands of the Taliban after the fall of the republic in Kabul, have been moved to Bagram Airfield, while other US and NATO tanks that were in the hands of foreign forces in Kabul will be taken to the air brigade base at Kabul Airport and then transferred to Bagram Airport.”
The source added that tens and hundreds of military vehicles are being moved to Kabul Military Airport every day, and at night, so that no one notices, they are moved to Bagram Airport and stored there. It is worth noting that this process has accelerated after the visit of the US delegation, which included Khalilzad, and some confusion has reigned among the Taliban ruling delegation, and the situation looks difficult.
Based on this information, we can analyze the likelihood of further US actions in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and conclude the purpose of gathering US aircraft, cargo, and vehicles at Kabul Airport.
The first version is that the collection of this equipment can be attributed to the scenario of neutralizing possible movements of dissatisfied Taliban groups. In recent months, especially after the discontent of some Taliban leaders, there have been rumors about a possible military response of the Haqqani network against the Kandahar group. In this regard, it is also analyzed that this split among the Taliban resulted from the region's competition with the transregion. While the threat of internal rebellion among the Taliban could have disrupted all the plans of the transregion, the collection of military equipment and equipment left by the Americans in Afghanistan could have become an alarm bell for these plans. Therefore, it is quite possible that the decision to collect the equipment was made as a result of an assessment of measures to contain such programs among the Taliban.
The second version is that the collection of this equipment may be aimed at creating a platform for negotiations and reaching a series of agreements between the Taliban and the United States. Since the election campaign, Donald Trump has been sensitive to the issue of Taliban access to and control over American military equipment and has repeatedly stated that the equipment should be returned to the Americans. On the contrary, the Taliban's reaction to Trump's repeated statements has been as follows. Now, after the visit of the US delegation accompanied by Khalilzad (the architect of the Taliban emirate), the Taliban leadership can be advised to use this equipment as a first step to create a platform for negotiations and reaching agreements between the US and the Taliban, and on the other hand, to ensure the satisfaction of the US President. This will prolong the life of the Taliban regime, and the group will undertake the transfer of weapons and equipment based on the agreements reached with the United States.
The third version of the transfer of military equipment and hardware to Bagram Airport is to facilitate the process of equipping and arming terrorist groups and formations that, according to the destabilization roadmap, are to operate in the north. According to available information, these groups, which include ISIL-Khorasan, Tajik Ansarullah, Chinese Uighurs, and extremist groups from other countries, are tasked with initiating military and operational movements along the border with Central Asian countries and China in the future. To better equip these groups, it is necessary to first gather scattered American equipment in a place that overlooks the geography of northern and northeastern Afghanistan, and then, through a series of unplanned operations, it can be captured by these terrorist groups. In this way, the program of destabilizing the situation in northern Afghanistan and exacerbating security threats to Central Asia and China will be implemented one step further. And its costs and needs can be covered by the weapons left over from the Americans. The Taliban has a mission to cooperate in this regard.
The fourth version is that the United States does not want this equipment to be used against American interests in the future Afghan game and not to fall into the hands of Asian rivals. Therefore, it would be easy to collect them in one place, store them in a certain place, and destroy them if necessary. If tomorrow the United States needs to accuse the Taliban of possibly not fulfilling Washington's wishes, this equipment must be quickly destroyed and eliminated.
The fifth version is that the Americans intend to take control of the Bagram military airport from the Taliban as a result of a general and secret agreement and have prevented in advance any risk of an attack on American facilities using this equipment. In this case, all bases and training grounds that could lead to a breach of the security of a possible US military presence must be eliminated in advance.
Based on the evidence available, it can be concluded that after failing to increase threats on the borders of Central Asia and China, the Taliban will now have to go through another stage to satisfy America. This stage must establish bases for terrorists, create a platform for conducting mysterious and complex operations, and provide the group with the opportunity to recruit new members. It remains to be seen what the Taliban's next step will be in consultation with the United States, and how far this process of transferring equipment will go.
