How is the Northern Sea Route Developing?
By Ali Askari, analyst, special for “Sangar”
The Russian Federation is interested in the development and exclusively peaceful use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). For China, Japan, South Korea, and several European countries, the NSR is becoming increasingly attractive, especially amid instability in the Red Sea and congestion of southern maritime routes. Nearly two-thirds of the route lies within Russian jurisdiction, which makes Russia the main coordinator and guarantor of security in the Arctic waters.
According to Russia’s Ministry of Transport, more than 36 million tons of cargo were transported via the NSR in 2023, of which about 22 million tons accounted for the Yamal LNG and NOVATEK projects. By 2030, the cargo flow is expected to reach 100 million tons, and by 2035, 150 million tons. For comparison, in 2015 the figure was only 5 million tons. At the same time, China is actively developing the concept of the Polar Silk Road, viewing Russia’s Arctic route as an extension of the Belt and Road Initiative. In 2018, Beijing officially included the Arctic in its sphere of trade and transport interests, and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) became a participant in the Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG-2 projects.
Despite the challenging climatic and infrastructural conditions, the NSR has the potential to become a global trade route of the future — especially considering climate warming and the extension of the navigation period to 6–7 months per year. This opens new opportunities for international trade but also requires precise legal regulation and a responsible environmental approach.
The State Corporation Rosatom is responsible for ensuring civilian navigation along the NSR: it processes applications, publishes forecasts of ice movement, and provides navigation charts in both Russian and English. This ensures continuous communication with international shipping companies and demonstrates the Russian Federation’s openness to shared use of the route. In 2025, Rosatom’s representative office reported an increase in the number of transit voyages by foreign companies through the NSR and projected a significant rise in cargo traffic in the future.
At the international level, Moscow advocates for the development of the Arctic Council, which includes eight regional states. Despite occasional political disagreements, the working groups on marine environmental protection and maritime safety continue their cooperation, highlighting the resilience of legal mechanisms for Arctic collaboration.
According to the Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation, by 2035, the NSR should become a fully integrated part of the global transport system. To achieve this, a comprehensive set of measures is being implemented, including the construction of up to 50 new ice-class vessels — among them a series of nuclear icebreakers of Project 22220 — the expansion of port capacities in Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, and Sabetta, the development of satellite monitoring, communications, and digital navigation systems, as well as the creation of international logistics centers and service hubs along the route.
According to the forecast of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, by the mid-2030s, the NSR’s share in Russia’s total foreign trade may reach 18%, while the transit of foreign cargo could amount to 35 million tons per year. This will turn the Russian Arctic into a new strategic corridor between Europe and Asia, and Russia into the central coordinator of Arctic shipping.
