How can the region defend its interests in the “Battle of the Titans”?
Author: Davlat Usmon, candidate of political sciences (Tajikistan)
A year and a half later, the SVO (Special Military Operation) of Russia in Ukraine, which started on February 24, 2022, can only be called a war. The Special Military Operation is how the central leadership and the state media of Russia prefer to call this war.
The SVO of Russia in Ukraine reveals some of the secrets of the geopolitical games between the West and the East, which continued after the collapse of the former USSR, of which Russia became the heir. However, analysts and experts believe that the beginning of open confrontations between Russia and the West dates back to the war of the NATO bloc against Yugoslavia (then it was a union state of Serbia and Montenegro). On that day, then-Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov turned his airliner over the Atlantic Ocean back towards Russia and cut short his trip to the United States. Others see Russian President Vladimir Putin's 2008 speech at a conference on security in Europe in Munich as the start of Russia's conflict with the West.
With the arrival of the Obama administration to the White House in 2008 and the so-called reset policy between Washington and Moscow initiated by it, relations between them improved. However, everything turned bad after the overthrow of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. With the change of power in Ukraine as a result of a "coup d'état", according to Moscow, and a "people's revolution", according to the West, and the Russian seizure of Crimea, the paths of the United States and Russia completely diverged.
After these events, unrest began in eastern Ukraine, which led to a conflict in the Donbas and as a result, two subjects were formed - the DPR and the LPR. Ukraine believes that these territories were first captured by the Russian Armed Forces, and then, according to the so-called fake popular referendums, these subjects were created. Russia believes that the population of Donbas, who are mostly Russian speakers, did not agree with the violent change of power in Kyiv, rebelled and seized power in the region, and formed these republics as a result of a referendum.
To restore control over the region, the Ukrainian authorities launched the so-called military operation CTO (Counter-Terrorist Operation), but they could not fully establish control in the region and, as a result, after negotiations mediated by Western countries and Russia, they concluded the Minsk Agreement. However, from the beginning of the conflict in the spring of 2014 until the start of the SVO on February 24, 2022, hostilities in the Donbas did not stop. Therefore, Ukraine considers the SVO Russia launched against it as a continuation of the war on a broad front and the main goal of Russia is to establish full control over Ukraine and in the future to restore control over all independent republics formed as a result of the collapse of the former USSR, including the Baltic states, Transcaucasia and Central Asia.
However, the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian front shows that the victory of one side over the other is very far away unless there is a preponderance of one side over the other in all respects of the conduct of the war. For a number of reasons, Russia cannot turn its SVO into a war, and the West helps Ukraine in doses, as much as necessary so that Ukraine does not lose and Russia does not win. Ukraine itself has lost most of its military-industrial enterprises as a result of Russian airstrikes. She also cannot continue the war without the help of the West.
If the war continues and the weakening of Russia due to financial and economic problems, as well as a decrease in its influence in the post-Soviet space, the confrontation between the West and Russia may move to the Caucasus and Central Asia. The global and regional rivalry of geopolitical players for influence is moving to these regions, which means the emergence of new conflicts and wars, as in Ukraine.
In fact, after the beginning of the SVO of Russia in Ukraine, the struggle for a new division of the world and its reformatting entered a new stage. Before the beginning of the SVO, formally the main geopolitical players on the world stage were the United States, China, the European Union, and Russia. A year and a half later, it became clear that in fact only the United States and China are such, and Russia dropped from the first category to the second tier due to the failure in Ukraine and the strategic mistake in resolving the conflict. And this mistake was that Russia used force to resolve the Ukrainian issue, which was expected by its rivals. Now she has two ways to solve the problem:
Firstly, it receives positive signals from the United States, which periodically sends messages, for example, about limiting military assistance to Ukraine and thereby invites her to agree and join them in a new division and reformatting of the world.
Second, it will continue the war in Ukraine until a complete collapse in the economy, internal fragmentation, and instability, and become more dependent on China. As for the European Union, it became clear that without the United States, despite its great financial capabilities, it cannot even ensure its own security.
Based on this, in the near future, the field of geopolitical games for a new division and reformatting of the world, in addition to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, will at least become the Middle East, including Turkey and Transcaucasia, and Central Asia, including Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as the African continent, where the United States with the help of their proxy forces, they began to oust and punish France for its rebelliousness and making strategic mistakes, as well as too independent foreign policy.
The history of the bipolar world has long roots. The first bipolar world was still formed during the division of the world between the Roman and Persian empires. The last was the division of the world between the West at the head of the US and the East at the head of the former Soviet Union. However, it is very difficult and problematic to build a three- or multi-polar world, because, first of all, human nature itself does not allow it.
The current situation in the modern world shows that other states of the world, including regional players (like the European Union) and any state alone cannot cope with ensuring their national interests and security.
History shows that when the world was divided between the Western and Eastern blocs, it was easier for the rest of the world to protect their national interests by forming various international alliances and organizations (Organization of Non-Aligned Countries, African Union, Union of South American Countries), etc.
The current situation in the world shows that the post-Soviet countries of Central Asia, in order to ensure their security and national interests, must be together and defend themselves together. Otherwise, the danger of turning the region into a field of geopolitical battles among world powers is very high.
Maybe someone will say that not everything is lost yet, the region is under the military-political umbrella of Russia, and China is its ally in this matter.
The Ukrainian issue showed that after the collapse of the USSR, the new leadership of Russia, having huge natural, human, scientific, and intellectual resources, as well as experience in public administration, could not turn the country into the core of the newly formed former Soviet states and contribute to their restoration and strengthening of sovereignty and security. However, practice has shown that certain forces within Russia, under pressure from external influence for more than 30 years after the collapse of the USSR, not only did not pursue a policy of trust and rapprochement but, on the contrary, contributed to a policy of discord and dismemberment (the Transnistrian conflict in Moldova, the Abkhazian and South Ossetian conflicts in Georgia, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the civil war in Tajikistan), etc.
Perhaps someone will say that it is unfair to place all this responsibility on Russia because she herself was immersed in internal instability and political crisis. But whether we like it or not, in those days only Russia had the opportunity to prevent all these conflicts, but did not.
It is fair to say that the leaders of the Central Asian states, who felt the danger of the current situation that has arisen, began to communicate more constructively with each other. Consultative meetings at the level of heads of state of the region testify to this. However, this is not enough. It is necessary to form a strong regional alliance and together protect the security and national interests of their states. Otherwise, the emergence of instability in one of the countries can very quickly spread to others for a number of well-known reasons. It should be noted that all states unanimously consider religious extremism and terrorism the main threat to their security. To this should be added nationalistic tendencies directed against rapprochement and strengthening of the regional union (pan-Turkism, pan-Iranism), etc.
Also, in order to create a strong union, it is necessary to resolve territorial disputes inherited from the past and find a way for further transparency of borders, as, for example, in the European Union. In addition, joint agreements and provisions on the fair division and use of water resources need to be worked out more substantially. The lack of a solution and settlement of these two issues, which at any moment can be used by external forces to create conflicts and discord between the countries of the region, is a major problem that requires an urgent solution. This should be the primary task of every head of state in the region.
In this regard, we hope that the next consultative meeting of the heads of states of Central Asia in Dushanbe, scheduled for September 14-15, will be more fruitful.
Also, everyone would very much like the current SVO of Russia in Ukraine to be completed as soon as possible. This will become a guarantee of well-being and stability in the post-Soviet space. Otherwise, the continuation of the SVO and the economic weakening of Russia as a result of sanctions and the reduction of its influence will bring other geopolitical players into the ring, primarily the United States and China, which is fraught with unforeseen negative consequences. In the absence of Russia, these powers will fight for influence in the region. Obviously, the countries of the region alone will not be able to protect their security and national interests in this "battle of the titans." The only way is to present a united front and defend together.
