What worries Iran and Pakistan in Afghanistan? - First part
Author: Seyyed Mohammad Ali Rizvani, analyst, source: didpress.com
The foreign ministers of Iran and Pakistan expressed concern about the situation in Afghanistan following the five-year trade and strategic memorandum in Islamabad. The Iranian Foreign Minister said: "Any development in Afghanistan affects Iran and Pakistan." And Bilawal Bhutto Zardari also expressed concern over the situation in Afghanistan and added, "Pakistan and Iran have agreed to continue active engagement to promote peace and stability in Afghanistan."
What does the expression of concern by these two neighboring countries over the political and military developments in Afghanistan mean? Are the concerns of Iran and Pakistan similar, and if not, what is the difference between the concerns of Pakistan and Iran regarding Afghanistan?
Iran and Pakistan, unlike other neighbors of Afghanistan, immediately reacted to the events of August 15, 2021, in the country and called it a positive development and played the biggest role in the process that led to the Taliban coming to power.
The question is what is now so worrying about these two neighbors, who were considered the main players in the development of events in Afghanistan?
The following factors appear to be the most important factors of concern for Iran and Pakistan, which are analyzed separately between the two countries:
IRAN;
The United States of America left Afghanistan at a time when Iran was under strong pressure from the United States. The change in the policy of the Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf in favor of the presence of Israel and the appearance of it in the Republic of Azerbaijan, the deployment of American military bases in the countries of Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkey led to Iran being surrounded by the United States and their allies. In such a situation, America's withdrawal from Afghanistan was in itself considered a victory for Iran, and for this reason, regardless of the consequences of the US withdrawal, Iran called it a victory for the Afghan people over the invaders.
It seems that this statement of the Islamic Republic of Iran stems from two reasons:
First, the Islamic Republic of Iran believed that the Taliban, given the long war with America and its allies and the casualties caused by this confrontation, were unlikely to develop good relations with the USA and receive assistance from this country to strengthen its government. In such a situation, the Taliban government had no choice but to rely on neighboring countries. A process that will end in favor of the neighboring countries of Afghanistan, and they will receive the necessary profit.
Secondly, it was believed that the Taliban would have a strategic eye on anti-American countries such as the Islamic Republic of Iran and establish deep relations with them. A relationship that is changing the face of the region and strengthening a number of US adversaries. Two years of Taliban rule proved otherwise. The Taliban clashed several times with Iranian border guards on Iran's eastern borders and stopped the activities of organizations such as the Imam Khomeini Relief Committee and the Red Crescent Society, which, in their opinion, are acting contrary to the humanitarian mission. According to the statement of the Islamic Republic of Iran, despite the fact that the Taliban insisted on recognizing Iran's right to the Hirmand River, they did not implement it. There are unconfirmed reports that the Taliban are suspicious of the activities of Iranian educational institutions in Afghanistan, such as the Free Islamic University, Jamia Al-Mustafa, and Payam Noor University, and it is possible that they may stop their work.
- The return of America to the playing field;
Two years after America's withdrawal from Afghanistan, the perceptions based on US flight from the region seem to be wrong and untrue. Now that two years have passed since the US left Afghanistan, the country's presence on the playing field is no less than before.
The Taliban have also shown that they do not recognize the boundaries between friend and foe, other than financial support.
American strategists are well aware of both the difficulties and compulsion of the Taliban, and the ability and readiness of the countries of the region to support them. These two factors forced the Americans to keep their finger on the pulse of events at a cost far less than the cost of having their soldiers in Afghanistan.
America's return to the Afghan playing field is slowly and steadily shifting the balance of political power in this sensitive region in favor of the US. Events that have caused concern in countries such as Russia, China, and especially Iran.
With the Taliban's creeping and meaningful pull towards the American front, all the optimism that was created at the beginning of the Taliban's coming to power among the countries opposing the US is gradually fading and giving way to pessimism and doubt.
- Ideological conflict between Tehran and Kabul;
The Taliban is an ideological political force that values and insists on its ideology in its dealings. From this point of view, Iran and the Taliban cannot remain two strategic allies in the long run. An issue that has been repeatedly highlighted by experts and political scientists in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
From the point of view of the Taliban, the Shiites are those who were in the first round of the rule of this group. Mullah Niyazi in the state media called the Shiites infidels, and their killing is permissible. This mindset still exists among the Taliban in a vibrant and strong form, and it is definitely considered one of the major obstacles to expanding ties between Tehran and Kabul. The ideological conflict on both sides is a reality that has marred relations between the Taliban and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Therefore, Iran has serious security, political and social concerns regarding Afghanistan. Iran is concerned about America's growing influence among the Taliban. This country is wary of relations between the Taliban and Baloch extremist and separatist groups. The influx of migrants and the transit of drugs are important issues for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Afghanistan's western neighbor knows that if the situation in the country gets out of control, there will be a serious threat to its security from the east.
