What is the reason for the Taliban's turn towards India?
By Rustam Roshangar, analyst, especially for Sangar
The Taliban are using the old and well-known tactic of getting closer to India despite Pakistan's unfriendliness. Ever since Pakistan started bombing them, they have also been trying to get closer to Iran and Tajikistan. In short, a few Pakistani bombs have opened the door for the Taliban to the corridors of power in Tehran, Delhi, and Dushanbe.
However, these efforts are unlikely to yield results. For several reasons, as listed below:
1 - No country in the region trusts the Taliban. If the Taliban cannot continue to serve and act as mercenaries to Pakistan and remain loyal to that country, then to which country can they be loyal? The Taliban has three ties to Pakistan: ideological, ethnic, and intelligence. For thirty years, Pakistan gave them bread and water and hid them in underground bunkers. But they showed ingratitude to Pakistan. Now they are haunted by the thought of dividing Pakistan and taking revenge on this country. These are the fantasies of the Taliban-Pashtunists.
2 - The world has changed a lot today. In the modern world, it is impossible to milk several hostile forces and at the same time secretly think of betraying everyone. The Taliban has many hidden grievances against India, Iran, and Pakistan. The opposite is also true. The Taliban want to use these countries as tools, and they do the same. But the Taliban are not winners. In these games, countries win, not groups that have no national and international prestige.
3 - If the US, Russia, and China are outside these games and want to hinder the process of regional integration of the Taliban, they will have complete freedom of action, and neither the Taliban nor the countries of the region will be able to stop them. For example, the alliance of the Taliban with India does not suit the Chinese.
4 - The Taliban are not united and are disunited. The rapprochement of one faction of the Taliban with one country causes discontent in another faction. The fact that Sirajuddin Haqqani is meeting with the Iranian ambassador is inexplicable. This indefinability points to internal contradictions. Rivalry of external powers intensifies the Taliban's internal rivalries.
5 - Pakistan is a powerful country that can be aware of all internal and external conflicts and contradictions of the Taliban and can prevent them.
6 - The Taliban rely most on India, but India has shown that it is not a reliable ally. India needs regulated tension with Pakistan and nothing more. In my opinion, India in its hostility to Pakistan will not follow the path that the Taliban wants. India is afraid of extremist groups on its borders and is worried that Pakistan will use their potential against India. Ultimately, India would prefer a more rational, semi-secular system to prevail in Pakistan rather than allow religious extremist groups to come to power, as in Syria. The Syrian experience has come as a shock to many governments in the region.
