Washington hopes to regain control of the military base in Bagram.
By Andrey Serenko, political scientist, NG staff correspondent
The team of the new American President Donald Trump is preparing for negotiations and, possibly, a new deal with the Afghan Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation). Judging by some signs, the Americans intend to conduct these negotiations from a position of strength, not only presenting the "furious mullahs" with obviously impossible conditions but also provoking a financial and economic crisis in Taliban Afghanistan. The goal of Trump's "Afghan plan", apparently, is to strengthen US intelligence capabilities in Afghanistan and the region as a whole, as well as to return the military base in Bagram to Washington's control. Suppose the new Afghan strategy of the US is successful. In that case, this will strengthen American positions in the region in the confrontation with Iran and in the rivalry with China and Russia.
A week ago, Donald Trump announced a three-month suspension of American financial aid to foreign countries, including Taliban Afghanistan. This step by the new US leader immediately provoked a deterioration in the financial and social situation in the state of the "furious mullahs." The Afghani exchange rate against the dollar, which had remained stable until now, has noticeably dropped and continues to decline. Some Afghan observers predict a collapse of the Afghan currency in the coming months, which will further complicate the already dismal economic situation in the country. The Taliban also announced a halt in the payment of salaries to civil servants and other public sector employees - for three months at the moment, and possibly for a longer period. This decision will hit thousands of families in Afghanistan living off such salaries until now.
Almost simultaneously with these financial and economic demarches, Washington began to make tough political demands on the Taliban government. Thus, Trump demanded that Kabul return to the US all the weapons and ammunition they left behind in Afghanistan. Otherwise, the American leader refuses to resume providing financial aid to the Taliban (according to the former head of Afghan intelligence Amrullah Saleh, America paid the Taliban government from $40 to $80 million weekly through various non-governmental organizations for almost three years). Without this American aid, the Taliban regime would have collapsed long ago.
The Taliban are unable to fulfill President Trump's demand to return American weapons. And not only because this would mean disarming the almost 500,000-strong Taliban army: the Taliban have already sold some Western weapons and ammunition to other countries, including to Pakistan in 2021. According to rumors, batches of American-Taliban weapons also surfaced in the Middle East and Ukraine in 2023-2024.
Surely the new administration in Washington understands the unrealistic nature of its demands, but it puts them forward quite prudently, raising the stakes and forming a political “debt package” of the Taliban to America, enhancing its effect through a controlled financial crisis. The recent decision of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue an arrest warrant for the Taliban emir, Maulavi Haibatullah Akhundzada, for the Taliban’s repressive policy towards Afghan women, also goes into the same piggy bank. Although the US itself does not recognize the powers of the ICC, American diplomacy is using the media and political effect of these decisions to the fullest extent. And there is an effect: as Afghan media report, after the ICC decision, Emir Haibatullah disappeared from his residence in Kandahar along with his security battalions.
Thus, in just a few days in January, the new White House team shook up the regime in Afghanistan, thereby creating favorable conditions for itself to begin negotiations with various factions in the Taliban leadership. If negotiations begin very shortly, they could yield the first results as early as March-April of this year.
As can be seen from the public statements of Donald Trump and his associates, current Washington would like to receive several concessions from the government of the "furious mullahs". First, to return a large military base in Bagram to US control. Second, to legalize and expand the presence of CIA and other US intelligence agencies "stations" (residents and bases) on Afghan territory under the pretext of fighting the terrorist organization "Vilayat Khorasan", banned in the Russian Federation, the Afghan branch of the "Islamic State" (IS, a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation). Third, to implement the project of an "inclusive government", which would include, in addition to the Taliban, representatives of other Afghan ethnopolitical groups.
In voicing these demands, American representatives are appealing to the provisions of the deal concluded in Doha between the United States and the Taliban at the end of February 2020. But it seems that today we are talking about preparing a new deal with the participation of the same parties, which is most likely also planned to be signed in the capital of Qatar. In any case, it is in Doha that the Taliban ambassador Suhail Shaheen has now appeared with new powers - it is obvious that this is directly related to the upcoming negotiations between the Taliban in Kabul and Washington.
There are good reasons to believe that Trump's team will be able to achieve many of its goals. This is why representatives of the regional community are becoming increasingly nervous today, fearing the Taliban regime's actual rejection of the "multi-vector" approach to its foreign policy and "falling under Washington." Representatives of the Russian Federation have already noted that "the Americans are trying to restore their presence (in Afghanistan) to some extent, using neighboring countries for this purpose," and "are thinking about returning their military infrastructure there." Afghan observers also associate the recent visit to Kabul by the new Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi with the threat of a new American-Taliban deal. According to rumors, he sought clarity from the Taliban on the question of who they intend to go with their future political life - with the countries of the region or with the United States. The Chinese comrades are also worried, as their citizen was killed by ISIS militants in the northern Afghan province of Takhar a few days ago: for the first time, Beijing has officially protested the Taliban government in Kabul. If the new deal between the Americans and the Taliban is successful, it will be an unpleasant fact for Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow.
