Russia’s recognition comes at a cost it’s willing to pay.
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, Security and Geopolitics Researcher, Special for "Sangar"
Original article: تنها با طالبان
Let’s start this analysis with a seemingly simple yet crucial question: Did Russia recognize the Taliban in consultation with China and other major powers? If the answer is yes, then a regional and international consensus over the new order in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan has emerged. But if the answer is no, the key question is: How far is Russia willing to go with this risky and consequential move?
What emerges from various analyses and opinions about this unexpected Russian action is that Moscow likely recognized the Taliban without formal and genuine consultation with China or other major powers, though with implicit coordination and limited intelligence exchanges. This decision is rooted in Russia’s security and geopolitical interests, despite the possibility that it conflicts with the vital or implicit interests of other regional and global players. Nevertheless, Moscow has accepted this risk and entered a decisive engagement over Afghanistan’s future.
While Russia and China have aligned on pushing the U.S. out of the region, forming reactive alliances, and designing regional diplomatic initiatives, Moscow has shown it sometimes acts alone at critical junctures. Afghanistan has always been a contested arena, and Russia is far from being the only actor able to operate freely. Every move by Russia—or any other power—reflects careful calculations of risk, pre-emptive defense, and capacity for counter-reaction.
China, in response to Russia’s move, opted for a calculated and cautious silence, avoiding any direct cost while using the opportunity to assess reactions and prepare for possible future actions. This cautious approach defines China’s conduct not only in diplomacy but also in security, economic expansion, and geopolitics.
There is no true consensus or deep ideological convergence between Russia, China, and Iran regarding the new world order. Their cooperation stems more from necessity in the face of shared challenges than from any enduring strategic or ideological alliance. Russia’s recognition of the Taliban now serves as a litmus test for other countries to measure reactions, risks, and opportunities.
Russia made this move based on its own internal calculations and expects no immediate support from China or other partners. In this high-stakes game, Moscow stands alone and is ready to pay the price. This action carries a clear geopolitical message to the West: “We can reshape the region’s diplomatic order without U.S. consent or participation.”
Beneath this decision lie potential intelligence and security objectives: penetrating Taliban structures, managing terrorist threats, and countering enemy efforts to weaken Moscow’s regional standing. Yet the danger of repeating past mistakes and falling into the Afghan quagmire looms large.
Ultimately, this move may create opportunities for Russia’s partners like China and Iran to maneuver diplomatically and strategically without bearing the main costs. As a result, the idea of regional consensus on the Taliban fades, and Eastern multilateralism increasingly appears fragmented and interest-driven.
Russia has now acted alone, without genuine consultation with China, Iran, India, or the West, relying on field intelligence and assessments to expand its influence in Afghanistan and send a clear message to its rivals: it is ready to bear the cost of this gamble.
