How Will Russia and China Remain Strategically Negligent?
By Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, exclusively for Sangar
Original article: طالبان در مسیر دستیابی به بمب هستهای
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the world witnessed a shift in the nature of security threats. While the risk of a conventional nuclear war declined, the emergence of non-state actors and radical states created new dimensions of geopolitical competition. Among them, the Taliban, as an Islamist regime and patron of terrorism, after retaking Afghanistan in 2021, seeks to exploit security gaps and rivalries between the Eastern bloc (China, Russia, and Iran) and the West (the United States and its allies). Intelligence reports and field data indicate that the Taliban and its allied networks are seeking access to tactical nuclear and biological weapons. If achieved, this would have wide-ranging security and geopolitical implications (Nuruzod, 2023).
Previous Models: From North Korea to Iran and Pakistan
Comparative analysis shows that the Taliban is looking at examples such as:
- North Korea became a lever of pressure on the U.S. after the Cold War. Despite the harshest sanctions, with covert support from China and instrumentalization by Russia, it achieved nuclear deterrence.
- Iran became a focal point of geopolitical tension between East and West after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Although it never fully aligned with the West, its nuclear advancements consistently prompted strategic pressure from the U.S. and Israel.
- Pakistan, despite its strategic partnership with the U.S., remained effectively an ally of China. Its nuclear bomb has been more a tool of geopolitical leverage than merely a deterrent against India.
- Relying on these models, the Taliban seeks to acquire nuclear and biological technologies to consolidate its position and become an uncontrollable player in the region.
Intelligence Data and Taliban Activities
According to published information, delegations linked to Taliban intelligence have made numerous trips to North Korea and Kazakhstan in recent years. The goal of these visits was to negotiate access to sensitive nuclear and biological equipment and materials.
Meanwhile, the Haqqani network, in cooperation with Al-Qaeda specialists, has conducted limited biological and chemical weapons tests in the Tora Bora mountains since 2021. These tests were primarily conducted on animals (sheep and goats).
Reliable information also indicates that some tactical materials were transferred from Kazakhstan to Kabul under the cover of commercial companies connected to Taliban intelligence networks. This demonstrates that the project to access weapons of mass destruction is not a rumor but a real, ongoing program.
Taliban Motives for Acquiring Nuclear and Biological Weapons
These efforts can be explained through several strategic objectives:
1 - Absolute Deterrence – like North Korea, the Taliban seeks to ensure its survival against threats from the East or West.
2 - Geopolitical Pressure Tool – an Islamic emirate with nuclear weapons could become a constant source of threat for China and Russia, increasing their security expenditures.
3 - Export of Transnational Terrorism – with nuclear deterrence, the Taliban could expand terrorist activities beyond Afghanistan without fear of direct military retaliation.
4 - Legitimacy and Strategic Superiority – the Taliban aims to establish itself as the strongest Islamist movement in the region.
5 - Political and Economic Leverage – possessing a deterrent capability allows the Taliban to negotiate with neighbors and even global powers.
Regional and Global Consequences
The Taliban’s acquisition of tactical or biological weapons would radically alter regional security equations:
The Eastern bloc (China, Russia, Iran), which has so far interacted tactically with the Taliban, would face strategic negligence. Once the Taliban achieves its goal, it will no longer need such interactions and could become a “new North Korea” in the heart of Asia.
Central Asia and the Middle East would become highly vulnerable, as the Taliban, with nuclear deterrence, could expand terrorist influence and illicit arms trafficking.
The U.S. and the West may, in the short term, use the Taliban as a tool to contain China and Russia, but in the long term, they would face an uncontrollable threat.
Conclusion
The Taliban’s pursuit of nuclear and biological weapons is part of a broader global geopolitical calculation. If ignored, within five years, Afghanistan could turn into an “Asian North Korea”: a regime relying on absolute deterrence and representing an uncontrollable threat to the Eastern bloc and regional security. Neglecting this trend could make Afghanistan the epicenter of a new nuclear crisis in the 21st century.
Resource List
- Barfield, Thomas. (2012). A Cultural and Political History of Afghanistan. Princeton University Press.
- Brzynski, Zbigniew. (1997). The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. New York: Basic Books.
- Byman, Daniel. (2021). Terrorism in Afghanistan: The Rise of al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Brookings.
- Cole, Steve. (2004). Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden from the Soviet Invasion to 9/11. Penguin.
- Cordesman, Anthony. (2014). Afghanistan in Transition: Lessons from the Longest War. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
- Giustozzi, Antonio. (2018). The Taliban at War: 2001–2018. Hurst Publishing.
- Gopal, Anand. (2021). No Good Man Alive: America, the Taliban, and War from an Afghan Perspective. Metropolitan Books.
- Khan, F. (2012). Pakistan and the Nuclear Bomb: Deterrence and Geopolitics. Rutledge Publications.
- Noorzad, Abdul Naser. (2023). Afghanistan’s Security Crisis and the Post-NATO Security Gaps. Published article.
