Now is the time that the world community must accept the Taliban's terms, not the Taliban the terms of the world community.
Author: Ahmad Saidi, an analyst on Afghanistan and regional issues (Germany), especially for Sangar
I have read several articles and analyses about the third Doha meeting where the authors make some assumptions, but I can't agree with most of them.
I know that the United Nations wants to demonstrate its flexibility at this meeting and once again outline the path for the Taliban to engage with the world. She wants the Taliban to accept an emergency representative to be determined by the UN, as well as the opening of schools for girls, recognition of an inclusive government, and a range of democratic values.
As far as I know the Taliban, and I know them very well, they will never agree to the appointment of a special representative.
On the other hand, although the Taliban were invited, they have not yet made it clear whether they will participate in the third meeting in Doha or not.
The Taliban also have their own conditions, such as giving them Afghanistan's seat in the UN and considering them a special representative and party to the negotiations!
On the other hand, the Russian Federation, Iran, Pakistan, and China will soon hold a meeting called the Moscow Format in Tehran. The main goal is that in this meeting the countries will discuss whether the Taliban will participate in the third meeting in Doha or not. If they participate, what message should they present, if they do not participate, what will be the position of their countries supporting the Taliban?
After the meeting in Tehran, the Taliban will be given instructions to participate in the meeting in Doha or not.
But will this meeting in Doha really work, can this meeting solve the problem of Afghanistan?
In my opinion, no, no, and no again. It can't solve anything!
The people of Afghanistan know that over the past three years, the Taliban have repeatedly indicated to everyone that they are not going to give in to what the world community wants, for example, on the issue of women's rights, opening schools and universities for girls. The world has repeatedly emphasized these demands, but the Taliban are not interested in these topics and have not yet accepted them.
Now, ahead of the third meeting in Doha, the Taliban are again stubbornly defending their position, making claims and insisting that they are the only real representatives of the Afghan people and that the world should not consider the Taliban part of the reality of this country. This statement, like the rest of the Taliban's claims, is not accepted by any of the current players in the Afghan crisis, and perhaps even by some, and even by the countries that support this group.
But what we saw after the Taliban came to power was not surprising. Anyone who has even the slightest idea about the extremist movements and ideology of the Taliban knows that they are so immersed in the sanctity of ideology and the illusion of perfection that no force can make them understand the errors of their strategy.
You heard the words of Taliban leader Mullah Haibatullah behind the scenes and away from the eyes of the people. He says that jihad will continue until the end of the world, we have defeated the West, and apart from what we say and the rules that we have defined, the rest is rejected.
The Taliban believes that we are currently the uncontested ruling group in Afghanistan and no other political force can challenge us or be our equal.
On the other hand, the Taliban knows the weaknesses of the UN and uses it very skillfully. One of these weaknesses is the bipolar atmosphere that has developed in world politics, which increases the vulnerability of the UN as the only legitimate international institution making decisions on global political issues. This bipolar situation naturally manifests itself in the solution to the Afghan crisis, which the Taliban can use for their own purposes, which is the bitter truth.
After what I have said and what I believe, can we hope for a third meeting in Doha, will this meeting meet the expectations of the Afghan people?
My opinion, given what we have mentioned, is that whether the Taliban attend the Doha meeting or not, the particular change that people are expecting will never happen. Given the harsh conditions that the Taliban put forward at the Doha meeting, it is unlikely that the UN will accept them and the Taliban will agree to the meeting. Because if the UN does this, it will cause more damage than ever to its dignity and prestige, which have already suffered in the past. Therefore, the likelihood that the Taliban will not attend the Doha meeting this time is high, unless a certain change occurs and the Taliban reconsiders its current position.
Now suppose all the obstacles are removed and this time the Taliban take part in the Doha meeting, will what everyone is waiting for happen? The Taliban's participation in this meeting does not mean the end of the story; those who understand politics should remember that it cannot be a guarantee of any positive change. The Taliban, with their false pride, does not seem to be under pressure from the UN and will not give in to all its demands at once.
This meeting could only mean an exchange of views between the Taliban, special envoys of the countries, and, possibly, people representing civil society. It won't cure any pain. If the UN does not accept the Taliban's terms, as in the previous round, the meeting will take place without the presence of representatives from the group. Again, if she appoints a special representative, he will not have any special powers. Therefore, the meeting can be limited to a simple exchange of views between the participants and that’s all.
If we once again conclude that, given the radical and inflexible positions of the Taliban, if a fundamental and more serious step is to be taken in the fight against this group, then it is the UN and the countries of the world that must sacrifice their values. This means the world will pay the ransom to the Taliban, but not this group to the world.
Is the world ready to give in to the Taliban's demands and abandon its principles and values? This seems unlikely. If so, we still have a long way to go. In my opinion, talking to groups like the Taliban from a weak negotiating position will not bring any positive results. Don't fool yourself.
