An attack on Iran would mark the end of the political power of Trump and Netanyahu.
Author: Aziz Arianfar, former Ambassador of Afghanistan to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Director of the Center for Afghan Studies in Germany (Frankfurt, Germany).
There is no doubt that the United States is the world’s greatest power. However, experience has shown that even a potential military superpower does not necessarily become the actual victor in every war. The defeats of the United States in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, as well as Russia’s failures in Afghanistan and its involvement in the war in Ukraine, have clearly demonstrated that war is an extremely complex phenomenon.
In any scenario, at the initial stage, the United States would have to launch thousands of advanced missiles to suppress Iran’s integrated air defense system. This would be extremely difficult given the distance at which American aircraft carriers operate from Iran’s shores.
Moreover, the United States would inevitably need to strike Iran’s hypersonic missile facilities to prevent a devastating retaliatory attack against Israel and regional air supply bases. Undoubtedly, this would not be an easy task.
For several reasons: first, in recent months, Russia and China have helped create an integrated air defense system for Iran. It also remains unclear whether S-400 and S-500 systems have been delivered to Iran. These systems are not easy targets.
Another problem is the mobility of many air defense systems, which significantly complicates their destruction. In addition, a large portion of Iran’s missiles are stationed in underground “missile cities,” making them extremely difficult to neutralize.
Iran possesses surface-to-sea missiles with a range of up to 2,500 km, as well as a large number of missiles with a range of 500 km. As a result, the United States would be forced to keep its fleet at a distance of about 600 km, which would severely limit the capabilities of its carrier-based aircraft.
If the United States fails to fully suppress Iran in the first wave of strikes, Tehran’s response would be harsh and deadly, inevitably causing casualties in Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, and other countries.
With the outbreak of war, U.S. bases in Iraq would become targets of ground operations by pro-Iranian forces. A ground war between Hezbollah and Israel also cannot be ruled out.
At the start of the war, Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz. The question is whether the United States would be able to reopen it. If not, the credibility of the U.S. Navy would be seriously undermined. Even a one-week blockade of the strait could plunge the world into a major financial crisis.
It would be enough for several American aircraft to be shot down and their pilots captured for the war to be effectively lost. The capture of wreckage from advanced aircraft by Iran would represent a serious defeat for the United States and a significant victory for Iran.
Rising oil prices would nullify years of U.S. efforts to exert economic pressure on Russia. Higher oil and gas prices would benefit Russia. China, India, Turkey, and Europe would suffer losses. Iran would also benefit.
Russia could undoubtedly launch a large-scale offensive aimed at capturing Odesa or Kharkiv. The cost of the war in Ukraine would increase two- or threefold, delivering a serious blow to the European economy.
An increase in casualties in Iran would pose a serious threat to Americans and Europeans residing in Persian Gulf countries.
All facilities of American companies in the region, especially the oil giant Aramco, as well as U.S. military bases, would come under attack. It remains unclear whether U.S. air defense systems would be able to intercept massive Iranian missile and drone strikes.
Any casualties among American servicemen would seriously weaken Trump’s position within the United States. The U.S. may be able to start a war and inflict heavy damage on Iran, but it would no longer be able to control how it ends—the entire region would be drawn into a large-scale conflict. Iran would likely also begin ground operations against Iraq, surrounding U.S. bases.
A prolonged war with Iran could mark the end of Trump’s political career. Netanyahu would also face serious internal opposition.
Difficulties of Attacking Iran and Constraints for Trump
Israel is vulnerable: the country has only two power plants. If it wished, Iran could destroy both within 40 minutes, leading to the country’s total paralysis.
In an extreme scenario, Iran could strike Israel’s chemical facilities and nuclear power plants, placing the country at risk of destruction and endangering hundreds of thousands of Americans and British citizens residing there.
Turkey, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar do not permit the deployment of U.S. combat aircraft on their territory. An effective strike on Iran would require about 500 aircraft, while the United States currently has approximately 120 aircraft on its carriers—insufficient for such an operation.
For a prolonged war, at least 100 refueling aircraft would be required. Only Jordan and Israel are prepared to host them.
In other words, it is not entirely clear what Trump ultimately seeks to achieve.
