What prospects for armed Afghan resistance does American intelligence see?
Author: Andrey Serenko, head of the Center for the Study of Afghan Policy (Russia), source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Due to the uncertain prospects of the Kabul regime, the United States is preparing a new military-political force.
Washington recently hosted a presentation of the United Front of Afghanistan (UFA, “Jabha-e Mottahedai Afgoniston”), a new military-political movement of Afghan emigrants. Its leader, former lieutenant general of the Afghan army Said Sami Sadat, announced his intention, including by armed means, to seek the overthrow of the Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation). Considering General Sadat's long-standing and closest ties with US intelligence agencies, there is no doubt that the UFA project is being created with the support of US intelligence and is an important step for Washington in the ongoing “great game” in Afghanistan.
Speaking at the opening of the political office of the United Front of Afghanistan in the US capital, General Sadat said that former soldiers of the Afghan army and members of the security forces (police, intelligence) of the former republican government of Afghanistan are participating with him in this project. Sadat himself did not name the exact number of his supporters. According to him, the UFA is simultaneously a political and military movement: “We have created a political movement and want, if possible, to participate in forming a new government of Afghanistan through peaceful negotiations. Let the Taliban participate in the elections, but if free elections are obstructed, our last argument will be an armed struggle.”
Judging by the statements of the UFA leader, this movement is being created as a reaction to several factors in today’s Afghanistan that are negative for the authors and curators of the new military-political project. As follows from the text of the presentation statement of the United Front, during the two years of Taliban rule, Afghanistan “has become a stronghold of international terrorism, there is a danger of complete Chinese control over the country’s natural resources, and the largest humanitarian crisis in history is unfolding in Afghanistan.” UFA leaders and supporters intend to counter these threats through the transformation of the Taliban regime - either through political means or military means. General Sami Sadat openly declared his “readiness to join the armed struggle against the Taliban.”
It is noteworthy that the presentation of the United Front of Afghanistan in Washington occurred at the very moment when US representatives, as well as their British allies, confirmed their refusal to support any projects of armed resistance to the Taliban regime. As can be seen from the activity of American diplomats and intelligence officers, Washington today is betting on the “peaceful transformation” of the Taliban regime - through the coming to power in Afghanistan of “moderate” groups in the Taliban, ready to enter into negotiations on a coalition (inclusive) government with several groups of the Afghan political emigration, committed to constructive relations with the West. That is why the Americans and their allies are refusing support to the two leading groups of the Afghan armed resistance - the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF) of Ahmad Massoud and the Freedom Front of Afghanistan (FFA) of General Yasin Zia. Now only NRF and FFA fighters, with varying degrees of effectiveness, are conducting an armed struggle against the Taliban inside Afghanistan.
Having refused support to Ahmad Massoud and General Yassin Zia, Washington, however, began to create its own power project for Afghanistan, the support of which, as in the case of the NRF and FFA, should be former Afghan military, police, special forces soldiers and intelligence officers. Obviously, this is due to several reasons.
First, despite two years of existence of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, its strength and durability are increasingly questioned by both external observers and Afghans themselves, including some Taliban leaders. Thus, recently the head of the Taliban Ministry of Internal Affairs, the head of the “Haqqani network” banned in the Russian Federation, Sirajuddin Haqqani, publicly stated the need to take measures to expand public support for the regime of the “Islamic emirate”, since otherwise, one cannot be sure of its stability. Representatives of the Russian Federation have repeatedly spoken about serious problems for the Taliban in the future if they do not adjust their political course. American experts involved in behind-the-scenes diplomacy with Kabul share a similar point of view. “The Taliban regime may collapse as unexpectedly as it arose, and they are already beginning to prepare for this, including in the United States,” one of the Afghan politicians in exile commented on the creation of the UFA project.
Secondly, against the backdrop of unfavorable trends in the Taliban, the NRF and the FFA retain their positions. Yes, until now the activities of these two main groups of armed Afghan resistance have acquired a large-scale character, which is primarily due to the lack of external support. However, the recent official visit of Ahmad Massoud to Moscow, his activity in the Iranian and European directions, as well as informal meetings with senior Russian officials of representatives of General Yasin Zia give reason to assume that the NRF and the FFA may soon find quite strong friends in the region. Which, against the backdrop of crisis trends in the system of Taliban dominance, can lead to rapid and unexpected changes in the socio-political situation in Afghanistan.
Obviously, Washington is beginning to prepare for possible changes, reacting, among other things, to contacts between the leaders of the Afghan resistance and Moscow. Launching your own project aimed at seizing the initiative in the Afghan armed resistance community is one such move. The front of General Sadat, created by the Americans, must either weaken and push back the fronts of Massoud and General Zia, which are not under Washington’s control, or crush them under itself. In any case, the countries of the region will be deprived of many opportunities to play independently in the field of power politics in Afghanistan - a market the US intelligence services intend to dominate with the assistance of their long-time assistants led by general Sadat.
