Why are regional players concerned about the post-Taliban civil war?
Author: Dr. Avliya Jalali, analyst, especially for Sangar
According to Emamali Rahman, President of Tajikistan, and Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 48 percent of Afghanistan's population is Tajik. But the main question is: why and how was this large population completely excluded from power in this country?
If we have a realistic view of the Tajik's exclusion from power in Afghanistan, we can mention various factors beyond the scope of this discussion. But what is important in the current situation is how the current Tajik leaders can put aside all their past differences and form a united front for a common fight against a common enemy.
The experience of the last two years has shown that neither side can overcome the current large and black barrier alone.
Judging by historical data, the main reason for the war with the Tajiks has a regional, historical and global dimension.
The 825 years of existence of the Persian Empires over large parts of the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa meant that a great spirit and a great mind ruled this noble Aryan race.
The fact that today, from a strategic point of view, the Tajiks are left alone and no global or even regional power is willing to take their side is rooted in their great thinking; Because, in essence, major global and regional players want a policy based on the “master and slave” principle. Tajiks, due to their historical past, cannot justify such an expectation.
There is an unwritten law: the big one, if he falls a hundred times, will get up again and fight big. An example of this is the revolt of Abu Muslim Khorasani, Yaqub Lais Saffar, Taher Fushanji, Shah Ismail Samani, and, in the latter case, the rebellion and resistance of Ustad Rabbani and Ahmad Shah Massoud.
The current resistance and struggle can also be seen and interpreted as a continuation of the same historical path of the past, with little difference in the worldview and changes of the major global regional players.
But the question that occupied the minds of many people of our civilization is: why the Tajiks managed to protect their lands from enemies during the First Resistance, but they were defeated in the Second Resistance?
Along with dozens of reasons and factors, the lack of unified leadership among Tajiks, the lack of regional supporters, the lack of a powerful global and extra-regional lobby, internal disagreements, and, most importantly, public dissatisfaction with the actions of current leaders over the past twenty years, the creation of class and social distance may be the most important reasons failure of the Second Resistance.
The differences between Tajik leaders are not as serious as they are exaggerated. Rather, a few individuals and opportunists have infiltrated the leadership ranks because of their interests and have been exploiting this difference of opinion for years and making the issue more prestigious. No party is willing to make a concession.
If leaders use political rationality and put the welfare and interests of the people first, they will no doubt easily put aside these internal grievances.
If we have a realistic view and want to get out of the current impasse, then it seems to us that there is a serious need to do the following things:
1 - All Tajik leaders, without exception, must apologize to Tajiks and other ethnic groups for their poor performance and betrayal in the last twenty years; This shows not only the recognition of their mistakes, but their greatness and will be a great lesson for future lying politicians to be aware of their future actions.
2 - Ustad Atta Mohammad Noor, one of the famous experienced and noble politicians, and Salahuddin Rabbani, an idealistic and indomitable young man, must support the unity, welfare and happiness of the people and break the current impasse. They must resign from the leadership of the Jamiyati Islami (Islamic Society) party.
3 - The Governing Council of Jamiyati Islami must be formed and the Resistance Front, which, unfortunately, in the last three years has been ruled by family circles, has not lived up to the hopes of, first of all, supporters from among the young generation of Tajiks in Afghanistan. Despite unconditional support, it did not blossom and once again made the hopes of this generation a victim of the goals and interests of the remnants of the Ghani regime. This change in direction resulted in hopes turning into disappointment and the Front straying from its original path. Therefore, the wisdom and interests of Tajik society dictate the need to prevent further isolation and join the Front to the Governing Council of Jamiyati Islami. And the following four central personalities must be represented as the main leaders of this council and periodically manage and lead this process:
1 - Salahuddin Rabbani;
2 - Atta Mohammad Noor;
3 - Ahmad Masoud;
4 - Ismailkhan.
Raising the question that we are the center, come and swear allegiance to us (bay'at), is not logical and not realistic. These words are similar to the “national agenda of national unity” of Ahmadwali Masud, who missed six years of opportunities and ended up with only 6,000 votes in the presidential elections, lower than Tursan. In public opinion, this was perceived as a great disgrace to the family of the National Hero.
Unfortunately for Ahmad Massoud, the main leadership of the Resistance Front is in the hands of a man who cannot be removed due to his family connections, and the continuation of the current situation due to the lack of achievements after the battle is accompanied by a wave of discontent.
Therefore, this false hope should no longer be created, which is not aimed at the good of the people from any point of view.
Secondly, a military council for decision-making and distribution of responsibilities must be created, consisting of the following individuals:
1 – Atta Mohammad Noor;
2 – Marshal Dostum;
3 – Muhammad Muhaqqiq;
4 – Salahuddin Rabbani;
5 – Ahmad Masoud;
6 – Ismailkhan;
7 – Hazrat Ali;
8 – Tadinhan;
9 – General Yasin Zia.
Eg:
1 - Salahuddin Rabbani and Atta Mohammad Noor, the main decision-making members of the military council, should take overall responsibility for military activities in the provinces of Balkh, Samangan, Baghlan, Kunduz, Takhar and Badakhshan;
2 -. Amir Ismailkhan should be appointed commander-in-chief of the western region;
3 - Marshal Dostum should assume overall leadership of the military fronts of the provinces of Faryab, Jawzjan and Saripul;
4 - Ustad Mohammad Mohaqqiq should take overall responsibility for the Bamyan, Daikundi and Maidan Wardak fronts;
5 - General Yasin Zia and Hamid Saifi should be appointed commanders of the provinces of Parwan, Kapisa and Panjshir;
6 - Tadinkhan, brother of Abdulraziq Achakzai and Ayubi, should be appointed commanders of the south;
7 - Hazrat Ali should be appointed Commander-in-Chief of the East;
8 - Munib Amiri should be appointed commander of Kabul;
9 - General Muradali Murad should be appointed chief of staff of military units;
10 - Khaled Amiri should be appointed commander-in-chief of operational or special units;
11 - Two Pedrams, Ashna and Rahman Ogly, should be appointed as officials of the media department of the resistance zone and general designers of policy and policy development in the culture and strategy department.
12 - Assure regional players in writing that previous civil wars will not be repeated;
13 - The goal of the struggle: freedom of the country from Taliban occupation and establish a federal system.
A general uprising throughout Afghanistan on a certain day, especially in the northern provinces, must be coordinated and the inner cores must be supported by significant financial expenditure, and the priority should be the occupation of Taliban bases by the people.
Rest assured: then if even the US will support the Taliban, or even if the whole world stands on their side, the Taliban will be defeated and the North will be immediately liberated.
Leaders of the northern region must remember one point: world powers look at problems realistically until they have a say in the field and prove themselves on the battlefield to regional and global partners. The game of media slogans, tags, and Facebook posts will never turn in your favor, and the world is not ready to bet on you again.
The fact that you were kept behind the door for over two years is proof of this statement.
If the leaders of the anti-Taliban front do not actively participate in the internal conflict and fall into the absurd trap of Tom West and other regional and global players, the dream of returning to their homeland will become impossible. Then the world will have to deal with the Taliban and there is no doubt that countries in the region will arrest and extradite opponents of the Taliban to prove their goodwill and unity with the Taliban. This is not excluded.
