Why is it important for the Taliban to destroy the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan?
Author: Andrey Serenko, Head of the Analytical Center of the Society of Political Scientists of Russia
The Taliban regime has been moving its fighters from the southern provinces of Afghanistan to Panjshir and Andarab for several weeks now, where the bases of the armed groups ("combat wing") of the National Resistance Front (NRFA) are located. There is no doubt that the Taliban are preparing for a major operation to "finally solve the problem of the NRFA" in 2023.
Why is it so important for the Taliban to destroy the armed groups of the Resistance Front in Panjshir and Andarab?
1 - The presence of the armed groups of the NRFA makes the victory of the Taliban incomplete. Although the regime of "furious mullahs" after August 15, 2021, controls almost the entire territory of Afghanistan, militant groups of the armed opposition of the NRFA remain in Panjshir and Andarab, which the Taliban still cannot cope with. This makes their regime illegitimate not only from the point of view of law but also not quite legitimate from the point of view of force.
2 - The armed groups of the NRFA favorably distinguish the Resistance Front from other groups of the Afghan opposition, which are in exile and cannot boast of having a "combat wing" inside Afghanistan. It is important for the Taliban to eliminate any signs of the presence of the opposition (especially the armed one) in the country, thereby making it clear to the Afghan and world public opinion that there is no alternative to the Taliban regime inside Afghanistan.
3 - Although the NRFA armed groups in Panjshir and Andarab today are significantly limited in their military-political ambitions, nevertheless, they represent a framework for the potential deployment of a larger and larger-scale armed movement ("Northern Alliance 2.0"). If the NRFA gets reliable support from abroad (and this is not excluded) or the political situation inside Afghanistan changes dramatically (for example, under the influence of internal conflicts in the Taliban), then the Panjsher-Andarab Resistance will quickly turn into a real force capable of controlling large regions (at least several provinces) of Northern Afghanistan.
4 - The internationally recognized Taliban terrorist organization regime will not accept any non-terrorist alternative within Afghanistan. For the Taliban, the same ISIS is a much less politically dangerous adversary than the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan. The "furious mullahs" would like the political alternatives inside Afghanistan to look like "either the Taliban or ISIS" in the eyes of the world and regional community, but not "either the Taliban or the NRFA." In the first case, as an alternative to ISIS, the Taliban can count on political recognition. In the second case, the Taliban can never be an alternative to the National Resistance Front.
5 - Leaders and representatives of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan have recently informally and quite actively contacted representatives of world and regional states (including Russia). One can only guess what subjects are discussed in the course of this communication. Of course, this cannot but alarm the Taliban and their allies, who, not without reason, fear the threat of the transformation of the Panjshir-Andarab resistance into a larger and stronger project inside Afghanistan. Therefore, it becomes a priority for the Taliban regime to eliminate the "military wing" of the National Resistance Front so that no one has the temptation and opportunity to play against the Taliban or without the Taliban in the Afghan "great game". The lack of alternatives to the Taliban will deprive the countries of the region and world powers of the already narrow corridor of opportunities in Afghanistan, forcing them to come to terms with any Taliban practices and principles of organizing socio-political life in the country.
