What is the benefit of Russia from cooperation with Afghanistan and why do terrorists go to SPIEF?
Author: Yana Kurenkova, Daily Storm
Representatives of Afghanistan were invited to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), which will be held from June 15 to 18 this year. Charge d'Affaires of Kabul in Moscow, Jamal Nasir Garwal, sent by the Taliban*, will arrive in Russia. Diplomat and ex-ambassador of the Russian Federation to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov noted the importance of cooperation between the two countries. At the same time, political scientist Andrey Serenko believes that one cannot extract economic benefits from relations with the Taliban, but one can mock the Americans in a political sense.
“Russia is not cooperating with the Taliban. Russia cooperates with Afghanistan. The economic benefits can be good under many conditions that will need to be secured in the future. We are not inviting the Taliban to SPIEF, but Afghanistan, the Afghan Chamber of Commerce and Industry. This is the very place where Afghan businessmen can discuss something with partners not only from Russia,” Kabulov said.
In turn, Andrey Serenko, an expert at the Center for the Study of Modern Afghanistan, sees no benefit in cooperation with the Taliban: “I myself would like to know what benefit the Russian Federation expects to receive from trade with the Taliban. The Taliban are in such an economic situation today that they can only sell and transport drugs and suicide bombers. Something tells me that Russia needs neither one nor the other.”
According to the political scientist, there are quite a lot of different minerals in Afghanistan. However, local authorities do not develop industry and do not create conditions that allow the processing of mineral resources.
“Yes, they tell wonderful tales about the abundance of minerals, they have the entire periodic table, which, by the way, is true. It's full of everything, starting with the wonderful lithium, which is as much a lure as oil and gas used to be. But it is one thing to have reserves on your territory, and another to be able to extract them. It is safe, reliable, observing the agreements, contractual terms, to have the infrastructure for production, export, processing, if necessary. There is none of this in Afghanistan. And first of all, there is no security there,” he stressed.
Serenko notes that there is no need to harbor illusions about successful deals with the Taliban. Any statements by Russia about its readiness to develop real economic projects with the government of Afghanistan is nothing more than a declaration.
“Especially given that the security situation there is deteriorating every day, the honeymoon for the Taliban is over. Now difficult times are beginning there, the administrative efficiency of the Taliban tends to almost zero, ” the expert describes.
Moscow has no influence on Kabul, and no resources for an effective political game in Afghanistan, Serenko argues. The purpose of inviting a representative of this country to SPIEF is advertising and an attempt to arouse jealousy in the United States.
“The Taliban today are guided not only by Russia. They are far from being our devoted allies and friends. The Taliban would like to make money on Russia,” the political scientist explains. - The Taliban today are more interested in America, China than in Russia. For the Taliban, Russia traditionally occupies the place of some kind of second home, a fallback option. That is, when the Taliban are not negotiating with the Americans and it is necessary to somehow make the Americans jealous (almost love psychology in a relationship where the partner is not generous enough), then the Taliban say: “Let's go to Moscow and wag our tail there. All of a sudden, the Americans start twitching, making up stories about what we could have agreed with the Russians on there.” And the poor Americans start freaking out, they start getting nervous, and then the Taliban try to get their little benefit.”
“Russia also wants to arouse the jealousy of the Americans: if you talk badly to us, if you choke us with these sanctions, we will come to an agreement with the Taliban, and these are terrible people who can do anything. Everyone is flirting for the attention of Washington, ” adds the interlocutor.
Serenko notes that the Taliban's strategic goal today is to make a new deal with the Americans. Kabul wants Washington to recognize the Taliban regime and finance it. “They are well aware that the Russians and the Chinese will never give as much money as the Americans will give,” the political scientist points out.
Russia, in its negotiations with the Taliban, pursues the goal of maintaining strategic stability in a difficult region: “Russia has a purely political interest in Afghanistan <...> - maintaining security in Central Asia. Our security forces soberly assess the situation and make efforts to strengthen the border, strengthen allied relations with the armies of Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.”
The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum will take place on June 15-18, 2022.
