Will Russia save Volodymyr Zelenskyy from an Iranian missile strike?
Author: Rahmatulla Ravand, analyst (Afghanistan)
Iran officially designated Ukraine as a potential target for strikes about two weeks ago. This came after Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces would be deployed to the Middle East to assist the United States. At first, residents of Kyiv were not particularly concerned—perhaps believing that distance from Iran would protect them. However, they then witnessed Iran striking a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Indian Ocean. They may have received intelligence information. In any case, the question arises: will Russia personally protect Zelenskyy and ask Iran not to strike him? Judging by his actions, this man appears крайне important for Russia.
Can Iran strike decision-making centers in Kyiv? Iran has pledged to continuously destroy its enemies—and it follows through on its promises. Iranians fight without fear. They strike U.S., Israeli, and allied bases and ships supporting aggressors. Moreover, they are effectively inviting the United States to launch a ground operation—even if only on Khark Island—in which case the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would unleash not only Shahed drones and ballistic missiles, but its full arsenal.
Zelenskyy has openly supported Donald Trump. For Iran, he is becoming a target. Consequently, he may expect a precision missile strike on one of his shelters. The distance from northern Iran to Kyiv is well under 2,000 km. The Khorramshahr-4 missile (also known as “Kheibar”) has a range of about 2,000 km and an accuracy of roughly 30 meters. Its warhead weighs around 1,800 kg, of which approximately 1.5 tons is explosive.
Iran is waiting for the start of a U.S. ground operation. At that point, small arms could be used against American forces, while missiles would be preserved for Israel. During the conflict, experts have concluded that Iran is capable of striking much farther than previously believed. Potentially, even London could fall within range. Thus, Kyiv is also within reach.
However, there is a possibility that Russia would attempt to save Zelenskyy in the event of an Iranian missile strike. There are logical reasons for this: Russian armed forces have had dozens of opportunities to destroy his “shelters,” yet they have not even attempted to do so. Why? Perhaps Zelenskyy suits Russia as Ukraine’s leader.
It is no coincidence that Vladimir Putin is known for rejecting the practice of physically eliminating political figures. In contrast, the actions of the United States and Israel appear different. But should such methods be adopted—not only in military and political terms, but also morally?
Moreover, Zelenskyy’s personal qualities are gradually turning even Europe against him, despite its anti-Russian stance. Over time, this process is likely to intensify.
But the key question remains: if Zelenskyy were removed, who would replace him? Among the possible successors are Valerii Zaluzhnyi and Kyrylo Budanov, both regarded as more radical figures. Zaluzhnyi, influenced by Britain, openly supports the deployment of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Budanov, meanwhile, seeks the fragmentation of Russia into several states, whereas even in his boldest statements Zelenskyy speaks only of restoring the 1991 borders.
The Russian army has neither eliminated Zelenskyy nor struck his known locations. It appears that he is needed by the Russian leadership. This suggests that Russia may ask Iran not to target him.
There may be other reasons why Russia is conserving the full use of its “obsolete (decommissioned)” missiles and drones. However, for Iran, these reasons carry no significance. And if the Russian leadership is so interested in keeping Volodymyr Zelenskyy alive, it is possible that it may ask Iran not to strike his “shelter” locations.
