Will the third plan (ISIS-Khorasan) be discussed?
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, especially for Sangar
When Michael Semple says that the Uzbeks are on the verge of forming an independent force from the Taliban, does the myth of the growth of ISIS and the story of the million-dollar aid from Great Britain to Marshal Dostum not come to mind?
Strange things are happening. One of the parties to the formation of ISIS, as has been said before, is Salahuddin Ayyubi. Meanwhile, Fasihuddin, Makhdoom, and dozens of untouched packs of Bedouin extremism, waiting in the line of ISIS-Khorasan reserves, will come on the scene to play their assigned role.
It seems that the vicious circle of the completion of the creation of ISIS is closing with the West's disappointment in the Taliban on the advice of Britain and the United States. After consultations with the Americans and the British, a second plan emerged to form a coalition government, which was not well received by the Taliban and their advisers. The Taliban see any participation in political power as the end of their project and therefore do not want to sit at the same table with anyone and share American and Western spoils.
The second plan to create a representative government has reached a dead end, and the United States, having created reserve forces in the West under the name of parties, movements, university professors, experts, etc., through which the hidden applications of the Doha Agreement and the plan to preserve the American province of the Taliban are revealed daily, enter the field with a different face. The Taliban, being close to the region, is trying to exaggerate the threat of ISIS, on the one hand, and to participate in the process of regional convergence and a temporary coalition in the region, on the other.
Now, given Semple's statements, Salahuddin Ayyubi's resignation, Makhdoom's fate, Fasihuddin's disappointment, Al-Qaeda's outsized influence in the Taliban, the situation in Pakistan, the crisis in the Middle East, the deadlock in Ukraine, the European crisis, and the elections in the US and Europe, it can be said that the game scenario in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan will change dramatically. If so, can we say that a new game has begun? Isn't the issue of ISIS expanding and allowing it to create security problems related to the issue of Iran? Or what message can the Russians' success in Ukraine and the capture of several cities in the country send to those who are running this bloody game?
The pattern of scoring points and dividing interests between the great powers has become the accepted rule in global crises. Now that the balance of war in the Middle East and Ukraine has been established, it can be said that once the balance is changed in other wars, the issue of Afghanistan will change too. I think so too. Because the Taliban rebels, their control and influence in the region, and the untapped reserves of ISIS and dozens of other terrorist groups in the region will change the ground for changing the equation.
So ISIS reservists in Khorasan like Fasihuddin, Makhdum Alem, and Ayubi must be very busy?! Because the third plan after the first and second may be more expensive, time-consuming, and difficult. Even the resignation of ISIS leaders (Fasihuddin, Makhdum Alem, and Ayubi) and their separation from the Taliban ranks may be directly related to this issue.
After the recent attack on Panjshir, the question revolves more around speculation. The attack on an important base of the Taliban in Panjshir, maybe a little dubious. It may be the first attack of its kind in modern warfare, where non-state actors, especially in Afghanistan, use drones to attack their enemies. I raise this issue because there are rumors that drones carried out the Panjshir attack. Now I think it is necessary to examine several assumptions about this attack:
First, the attack may have originated with ISIS-K, as rumors and U.S. officials have suggested. As the Taliban began to gain strength, elements of Tajik, Uzbek, and other ethnic groups were inserted into their ranks, who were expected to one day form the core of ISIS-K. Salahuddin Ayyubi, Makhdoom Alem, and Qari Fasihuddin Fitrat, the Taliban’s army chief of staff, are among the key leaders of these cells. At the time of this analysis, the first two have resigned from their symbolic positions in the Taliban emirate and apparently broken away from the Taliban. This suggests that ISIS is moving toward activation as a third program;
Second, the attack may have originated with Asian allies, most likely against strongholds of al-Qaeda, terrorist groups from Central Asia and China, and the remnants of the Haqqani network. The resurgence of al-Qaeda and its support to other terrorist movements from Central Asian countries and China based in Afghanistan, with ethnic bases, high operational capabilities, and strong military support, is unacceptable to Asian allies. Al-Qaeda's investment in Panjshir, this strategic stronghold, has become a cause for concern for the countries of the region, and since the danger is growing and there are no good consequences, it was decided to attack these bases in the heart of the Panjshir Mountains as a first response. At the same time, this type of movement can create wider and inevitable security holes in this geography;
Third, this attack was probably carried out by the Resistance Front, which could be seen as a third option ordered by the Americans after the failure of the second plan. The Americans apparently failed in the first plan to establish the Taliban in power and use this group. They failed in the second plan to form a hybrid government consisting of the Taliban, displaced politicians, and the armed opposition of the Taliban; According to the implementation of the program or the third option operational mobility, the drone attack is also on the agenda. As the Americans tried to implement the second and third plans, the Taliban is also penetrating deeper into the region and wants to adhere to regional programs. This risk is unacceptable for the United States and cannot be tolerated. There are circles within the Taliban that do not want to share the fat accumulated by this group with others.
Where is the situation developing to?
If the current situation continues, other terrorist groups operating in the region and geography of Afghanistan will join this campaign. With its implementation, the battlefield will take on a new appearance. If drones are transferred to the conflicting parties in Afghanistan, it will be a development similar to the Stinger missiles during the presence of the Red Army. This may challenge the absolute superiority of the Taliban and lead to a change in the balance on the battlefield.
What is the result of this analysis?
Considering the above reasons, if ISIS was involved in the Panjsher attack, there can only be one target; It is precisely the weakening of the Iranian axis of resistance that has created the impasse in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Russia and China's intervention in Afghanistan is another aspect of this story, in which its consequences are being deliberately calculated.
