How do the world’s intelligence services exploit the weakness of the Taliban?
By Abdul Naser Noorzad, researcher in politics and geopolitics, especially for “Sangar”
What is happening today in Badakhshan is not merely a local conflict over the extraction of gold and underground resources. Rather, it is a sign of the growing complexity of internal rivalries within the Taliban movement, as well as the intersection of the interests of regional and extra-regional actors in northeastern Afghanistan. Badakhshan has now become one of the most sensitive geopolitical points in Afghanistan — a region where strategic fault lines, security belts, and multilayered struggles for power converge.
In essence, the northern and northeastern regions, such as Badakhshan, represent a dossier imposed upon the southern Taliban. A dossier that is meant to affect all regional security processes. Even the Taliban’s survival in power depends on this security issue. If the Taliban fail to implement their pre-determined objectives in this region — namely the creation of chronic instability, the trafficking of drugs and weapons, and the establishment of a logistical corridor for exporting terrorism toward two major targets, Central Asia and China — then their project will be doomed to collapse. For this reason, no single actor can endure alone in this region. Several simultaneous and intersecting processes with varying destructive capacities are now taking shape.
It is important to understand that reducing the current crisis in Badakhshan merely to internal Taliban disagreements or economic conflicts would be a superficial and incomplete analysis. This region is a point of presence and intersection for numerous actors: from local Taliban factions and the Kandahar circle to ISIS-Khorasan, al-Qaeda, radical groups linked to Central Asia, and even elements associated with China’s security interests. Each of these actors seeks to gain control over underground resources, strategic positions, and routes of influence in the region.
From a geopolitical perspective, Badakhshan is regarded as the beginning of the Hindu Kush security wall — a belt that is not only a natural boundary between East and West, but also an arena of competition among regional powers. China, India, Pakistan, Iran, and Russia each view this region as part of their strategic and security calculations. For this very reason, Badakhshan has once again become a focal point of the struggle for influence in the region.
In this analytical context, it appears that the arrest of local commanders, the destruction of mining enterprises, and the presence of Chinese companies and citizens at mining sites have pushed the current crisis far beyond the boundaries of a simple economic conflict. Behind these developments, one can observe signs of ethnic rivalry, political purges, and a hidden struggle over resources and routes of influence. Without taking into account regional rivalries and the multilayered power structure within the Taliban, it is impossible to present a complete picture of the crisis in Badakhshan.
One of the important dimensions of this crisis is the effort by the Kandahar circle to prevent the rise of local Taliban forces in Badakhshan. The central leadership of the Taliban fully understands that strengthening local commanders and granting them access to substantial financial resources could create the conditions for rebellion and the emergence of independent centers of power. For this reason, the Kandahar circle has consistently sought to limit the authority, capabilities, and easy access of local Taliban groups to the economic resources of this province.
Another important factor is the role of the local mafia and informal economic networks in Badakhshan. These networks, both during the republican era and under Taliban rule, have maintained extensive interests in mineral extraction, drug trafficking, and the transportation of weapons. Bribery and the establishment of ties with power circles in Kandahar are part of this mafia’s efforts to preserve its influence and maintain access to Badakhshan’s underground wealth. It is precisely these economic interests that have turned Badakhshan into one of the most complex arenas of internal rivalry.
The involvement of transnational smuggling networks has further complicated the crisis in Badakhshan. The geographical position of this province has turned it into a connecting link between Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Tajikistan — a route that can extend all the way to Russia and Eastern Europe. The importance of these routes has intensified competition among local Taliban factions, the Haqqani network, the Kandahar circle, and other influential groups. Each faction seeks to take control of these smuggling and transit corridors because dominance over these routes means access to financial resources and greater influence in the sphere of security.
Under such conditions, any internal split among the Taliban turns into an opportunity for regional and extra-regional intelligence services. These structures fully understand that the intensification of internal contradictions within the Taliban creates fertile ground for recruitment, infiltration, and crisis management. Therefore, Badakhshan is not only an arena of Taliban rivalry, but also a stage for the covert war of intelligence agencies.
In the external dimension, China’s presence in the mineral deposits of Badakhshan has become one of the most sensitive issues for regional actors. Repeated attacks against Chinese citizens and projects in Afghanistan are not merely isolated security incidents, but clear signals opposing the expansion of Beijing’s influence in this geography. Contrary to common assumptions, resistance to China’s presence is not limited solely to the United States. India, Iran, Russia, and even Pakistan are also highly sensitive to the expansion of China’s economic and security influence in Badakhshan and are attempting to prevent the regional balance of power from shifting in Beijing’s favor.
Thus, the crisis in Badakhshan cannot be viewed merely as a local conflict over mineral extraction or internal Taliban disagreements. Today, this province has become a point of intersection for security, economic, and geopolitical rivalries — a place where the interests of the Taliban, smuggling networks, regional powers, and extra-regional actors are deeply intertwined. As long as Badakhshan retains such strategic importance in the regional economic and security calculations, this province will continue to remain one of the main centers of tension and rivalry in Afghanistan.
