If he is not re-elected, will there be war?
Author: Talib Aliyev, analyst, especially for “Sangar”
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is behaving like the winner of parliamentary elections that have not yet taken place (scheduled for June 7, 2026). In fact, he continues to destroy the republic’s sovereignty under the slogans of protecting it, depriving the country of the remnants of independence, pulling it out of the sphere of influence of Russia and other states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and placing it under the patronage of the West represented by the European Union.
Confirmation of this is the signing on May 5, 2026, of the joint declaration following the “EU–Armenia” summit, which in practice amounts to recognition by the ruling team of the so-called “rules-based order,” implying the right of the strong to dictate their will to Yerevan.
Former Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian stated on his Facebook page on May 12, 2026, that Pashinyan had given Russian President Vladimir Putin the wrong diplomatic response regarding the EAEU–EU dilemma. The Prime Minister said, “As long as there is no contradiction, let us continue as it is, and then we will see.”
According to Oskanian, Pashinyan never understood diplomacy and was always far removed from it, and all the misfortunes he brought upon the Armenian people largely stem from the fact that he is a man far removed from diplomacy.
“He neither knew, nor knows even today, what diplomacy is, and over these eight years he has learned absolutely nothing. In every situation where he faced a choice, he always made the wrong one”, the former minister emphasized.
He also called Pashinyan’s statement false, that if he is not re-elected, there will be war.
“I think that raising such a question already borders on criminal liability when you place your own people before such a threat without any serious grounds. This is an absolute lie. But, on the other hand, the absolute reality is that if Pashinyan is elected, Armenia’s economic situation will become much more difficult,” Vardan Oskanian concluded.
What Nikol Pashinyan, the Prime Minister of Armenia, is doing resembles Zelensky’s early mistakes, when he failed to maintain a balance between Russia and the West and ultimately led the situation to war and the division of Ukraine. Just as Zelensky was bewitched by the West’s billions — becoming a billionaire himself while Ukraine was devastated — Pashinyan also hopes to obtain those billions (including the promised $6 billion in investments from U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance), not realizing that “free cheese exists only in a mousetrap,” and that Armenia is merely another anti-Russian project. Vigilant Georgia quickly pulled itself out of this trap.
The fate of Ukraine and Georgia should have become a good lesson for Pashinyan, but apparently it did not. Georgian leaders understood this, while Zelensky — and now Pashinyan — failed to understand or take seriously one thing: their states were created by Russia, and the key to their survival also lies in the Kremlin. This means that even if Pashinyan wins the upcoming elections, it will only be a transitional stage toward a new confrontation with Russia. Then it will become clear why Armenia will make a mistake by choosing Pashinyan.
