Why has everyone come to terms with the Taliban and consider it the “only alternative” in the Afghan field of regional and trans-regional confrontations?
Author: Abdul Naser Noorzad, security and geopolitics researcher, especially for Sangar
Afghanistan is still at the center of the bloody games of regional and global warring powers. This axis is considered to be the foundation of the spirit of understanding or scoring points in other disputed areas. It is argued that Afghanistan no longer enjoys its former status among the great powers. But for some reasons, Afghanistan has been able to maintain its importance.
The author will discuss these reasons in the beginning of this analysis. But to enter the discussion, we must analyze the geopolitical centrality of the Hindu Kush in this battleground. The principle of the new big game, which fits into the doctrine of regional destabilization, is centered on the Hindu Kush in a dangerous and multi-layered security game. The center of this game is actually the battlefield of Hindu Kush, which is the meeting place of regional and extra-regional powers' policies. Because this game has no field in the south of Afghanistan and it is not profitable for the powers to fight in the south.
The topography, geopolitics and economic benefits that this geography (Hindu Kush) has provided for the powers involved in the Afghan field show that only the southern area can be considered as its cost maker. In other words, war and conflict are going on in the north, and the south provides its expenses and income from drug trafficking. On this account, the meeting point of the Hindu Kush was chosen because the south has the economic character and financing of this war. The reason for this is the proximity of this geography to the north pole of power in Central Asia and China, the ultimate goal of which is to challenge both new competitors in the field of global competition.
The reasons why the south axis of this game is not bloody are as follows:
First - If they fight in the south, why should they fight and where will they get their resources from?
Second, if they fight in the south, they have to fight with Pashtuns and tribes based in Pakistan. This strategy is considered a wrong and challenging strategy in the past twenty years, despite the abundant economic resources that were provided from the understanding of drug cultivation and production and remained hidden in the shadow of war and military and security conflicts.
Third, there is no strong rival of America and England in the south. Iran is in a strategic compromise with America's agendas and this game has continued for many years. Northern Afghanistan and especially the battlefield of the Hindu Kush is considered the main arena of confrontation and conflict between regional and major powers;
Fourth - As the Russians argue, the destabilization belt is summarized to challenge Russia and China in the Hindu Kush axis and is implemented under the American regional destabilization doctrine.
Based on the following reasons, I have devoted the current analysis to the geopolitical importance of the Hindu Kush and the main feature of this game, and I am trying to do the main body of this analysis behind this instability problem that is caused by a security mystery. For this purpose, I will briefly write some clear reasons that indicate the main character of this conflict and that have caused the West and the region to engage with the Taliban and choose the Hindu Kush axis as their main arena:
First - The Hindu Kush axis, which overlooks the security radius of China and Russia, has great strategic sensitivity. This area has not only become important in the confrontation between Russia and China with the US and its allies, but it will continue to be important in the future battles between India and China.
Second - The Hindu Kush is in the strong fence of an invisible but highly effective security radius, and its strategic nature has made it unconquerable. Realizing this, the great powers try to reach this point and surpass one another;
Third - The axis of the Hindu Kush has the historical feature of defending the civilization of the north against the south. This north and south is true for Afghanistan and can be discussed beyond that. In the current situation, where the world order is facing a difficult test for its survival, the Hindu Kush and its centrality are the most decisive factors in establishing the position of the great and revolutionary powers in Hartland's theory;
Fourth - The great effort of the Taliban is to establish a reliable establishment in the center of the Hindu Kush. If we pay close attention, we will find that the concentration of military forces, weapons facilities, and the special interest of foreigners in the centrality of the Hindu Kush shows something unusual;
Fifth - The Hindu Kush is a reliable defensive wall. If any kind of storm comes from the south, this reliable and defensible wall will be a bastion that will attract the interest of regional and global powers;
SIXTH - The Hindu Kush is the main focus of the Shiite and Sunni geopolitical competition. Iran, Saudi Arabia and the region, which nurture the two major Shia and Sunni religions in their wombs, cannot think separately from the Hindu Kush axis for competition. The south, which is the cradle of Deobandi thinking, and the religious authority and the Wahhabi kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has nothing in common on this axis to reconcile.
But the nature of the current crisis in Afghanistan, which has mostly security and intelligence aspects, is progressing with the help of a hybrid war. Hybrid war, which has all the hardware and software components at its disposal and covers all aspects of this war, is the new aspect of competition in Afghanistan. At the same time, the multi-dimensionality of this war and the competition between regional and extra-regional powers has made the harmful radius of its security cover the entire region and expands every day, fueling its concerns.
Numerous players with different capabilities, conflicting and hostile security agendas and temporary security alliances and information considerations that are mostly preventive in nature are other features of this war. The region with the extra region, the region with the region and the region with the extra region against the region (Iran, Russia, China and India - China against Russia and Iran - Pakistan and China against others and Pakistan in the triangle of England and America) is one of the wonders of this war.
Meanwhile, the Taliban have won most of this game. Those who remain in power and create the basis of this competition will be in favor of whoever gives points. But there is a fear for the region and beyond the region: Lest this multi-dimensional game get out of one's control and be placed in the orbit of its rival. This is where the situation gets complicated. A collision occurs and the security mystery prevails. More blood is spilled and the volume of regional and extra-regional investments against the Taliban in Afghanistan is increasing. This is why I say that there is no hope for a bright and Taliban-free tomorrow. This should not be done by raising the issue, which is mostly informational and propaganda, that "the Taliban have no alternative". be mistaken. The Taliban have alternatives, but their practical character is more and they provide more benefits to the regional and extra-regional powers, which their opponents do not have such a position for now.
It is true that what the Russians say is the cause of creating a belt of instability in the axis of security and political interests of Russia and its allies, but only Afghanistan has actually become its campaign. Do not forget that we are talking about Asia. The issue of Ukraine and Europe, as well as issues related to Africa, are shaped into another complex equation. But the issue of Afghanistan is really in the strategic axis of destabilization of America after leaving this country. In this game, which is being promoted in the form of doctrine of destabilization of Asia under the influence of China and Russia, there is no regular front and this is the strange feature of this game. All parties are fighting on the same front and against each other.
The only security fence that can separate the border between the region and the extra region is the Hindu Kush. But this axis is still not agreed upon by all gamers. Therefore, it is not possible to draw a regular line from the queues. China is with the Taliban, with Iran and Russia against the United States, but the Taliban are with the United States and with China, Russia and Iran. Pakistan plays on both scales. It is with China and continues lobbying alongside the Taliban, but it is with the United States and is promoting a new regional destabilization strategy in the form of the doctrine of the new big game for the benefit of the United States and England. Iran with Taliban and Russia with Iran and Taliban in understanding with Pakistan. So we can say that there is no clear line of friends and enemies, allies and opponents. But the basis of this game is based on the principle and rules that everyone harvests according to his interests and will receive according to his power, strength and practical character.
On the other hand, the proxy war, which has a long history in Afghanistan, shows its new face. This is because proxies are usually groups that serve the interests of big powers and do not manage and control the regular political structure. But today's proxy war in the field of Afghanistan has been used for the benefit of others, regardless of whether it is official or not, by means of a regular political structure that is under the control of the Taliban. Both the region and the extra region are trying to use this exceptional opportunity.
In addition, it can be seen that the instrumental use of Afghanistan's soil, opportunism and passing and withdrawing from this game have become its general rules. No fixed agenda, no permanent friends and enemies, no clear line and no long-term plan seem to exist in the current field. Everyone extends a hand of friendship by recognizing their interests, and sometimes they end up on the path of enmity. This has made every player to play according to his ability in the field of Afghanistan and has the right to choose friends and enemies.
In terms of agenda, the region and the extra region are in conflict at one point: that the region is in favor of maintaining the existing existence to prevent the spread of the vast dimensions of this crisis to the borders of Afghanistan and does not allow its security and information radius to be tied to their weak points and end up benefiting the region. While the trans-region is in the direction of using the Afghanistan field in order to use the opportunities for the boarder towards the borders of Afghanistan. So, both sides keep this principle in mind and continue the game until a certain time.
We have already said that the Taliban are known as the only important player in the field of Afghanistan for now. This work has become a winning card for the Taliban due to the fact that the warm intelligence presence of the region and the extra region is basically possible under the shadow of a fake government. This is why they say "the Taliban have no alternative". According to regional and extra-regional powers, considering this principle, they do not allow any kind of alliance, and what is shown as an alignment, are actually security alliances with doubts. In such cases, the common field is the source of conflict and its prominent players look for opportunities to challenge others.
Furthermore, all sides know that the current war will not have a winner. But there is one definite loser: the people of Afghanistan. Therefore, the warring parties, without considering the consequences of this dangerous security game, fearless of its results and careless of its costs, continue to play it. But as it was said before, the main concern of the region and beyond the region is the expansion of the security radius based on impact and anti-impact, which reduces its intensity a little. And there is no end to the war unless its financial resources are obtained from itself.
There is another difference in this game: the region wants to get along with the united Taliban and secure its interests, but the trans-region, with the vision of dividing the Taliban, is trying to create an alliance with each Taliban group separately and make the region into to challenge Therefore, both the region and the extra region in the whole Taliban are looking for what is called the provision of economic, political and security interests. Both the region and the extra region have a tactical and strategic interaction with a player who carries the narrative of violence.
No one can even estimate the result. All predictions about the future are based on speculation. Why is that? Because the nature of the game is unknown, the general rules are vague; there are no hidden final goals and permanent players. Every moment, the dynamic nature of the game in the field of Afghanistan confuses everyone. Friend and enemy are uncertain and the principle of the rule (region against extra-region, region with extra-region against region) still prevails. The Taliban are currently being used as a pressure tool in this complex security conflict. This work is greatly beneficial for the region and the extra region instead of getting involved with it. So if the agreement is like this, what will be the fate of more than 30 million hungry, illiterate, poor people who lack the elements of political cohesion and unity of the nation?
